Monday, August 18, 2014

Bad Moon Rising


You know the Conservatives are in trouble when Ian MacDonald says they are. No Liberal or Dipper, MacDonald got into politics as a spokesman for Brian Mulroney and as an ardent supporter of his high school classmate, Jim Flaherty. But now he is worried. The latest EKOS poll is bad news all around:

This isn’t the one bad poll in 20. And it wasn’t a one-night stand.

The Liberals now lead the Conservatives by 38.7 to 25.6 per cent, with the NDP at 23.4 per cent. In effect, the Liberals have doubled their vote from the 18.9 per cent they received in the 2011 election, while the Conservatives have plummeted from 39.6 per cent to the mid-20s. The Liberal brand is back.
The Liberals lead in every province except the Tory heartland of Alberta and Saskatchewan. And where it matters most — British Columbia and Ontario — the Liberals lead not by a little but by a lot: 37 to 22 in B.C., where the NDP is actually in second place at 26 per cent, and 46 to 28 in Ontario. Those are blow-out numbers, pointing to a Liberal sweep of the lower B.C. mainland and the Greater Toronto Area.

In Quebec, the NDP lead with 37 per cent, with the Liberals at 30 per cent, the Bloc at 16 per cent and the Conservatives at a measly 12 per cent. This means the Liberals would re-gain most of the Montreal and Outaouais regions, with the NDP retaining most of their seats in the rest of the province. The Bloc would disappear and the Conservatives would be shut out, except perhaps for a couple of seats in the 418 Quebec City region.

In the Atlantic zone, the Liberals lead the Conservatives 53 to 29, with the NDP at 21 per cent. What the Conservatives are getting Down East is pushback from voters on employment insurance reforms, much as the Liberals did in the 1997 election. These numbers point to the Liberals winning all but a handful of the 32 seats in the region.

And it's not just the regions that are turning against the Harperites. Demographics show that the political winds are changing:

Not only do the Liberals lead the Conservatives among men (40-28, with the NDP at 20 per cent), the Tories fall to third place among women (Libs 37, Dippers 27, Cons 23). And the Liberals lead in every age demo — even in the 45-64 and 65+ segments, traditional Tory strongholds.

So far, the Harper Party seems not to be concerned. They apparently believe that marijuana will be the wedge issue that brings Justin Trudeau down. But when party loyalists like MacDonald start to worry publicly, you know there is a bad moon rising.


Anonymous said...



Owen Gray said...

It appears that the majority of Canadians agree with you, Loving It.

greg said...

My question: Would the liberals put back some of the legislation that Harper took away re environment, or is it too late.

Steve said...

Hi Owen,

I had something I thought important to say and I realized you are so ubiquitous that I did not have a link on my blog. I will correct this shortly or longly as is my pace.

I just have to reflect about the Justin violation. Have we seen this picture too?

Owen Gray said...

No, I haven't Steve. Do you mean the Watergate story?

Owen Gray said...

Good question, greg. I suspect there will be a lot of pressure to do so during the next election.

Anonymous said...

Harper isn't concerned because, of all of the ethnic votes he is buying up.

The BC Liberals work for Harper, we have always known that. China was just given the contract, to build the LNG plant in Prince Rupert.

BC's ship building contract, was given to Poland.

A firm for India is bringing over, their Engineers and for many other jobs.

Then there are, the Jewish votes. The votes of Ukrainians.

Harper still has time to give more of Canada away, for ethnic votes.

Jason Kenny is bring over thousands of foreigners, to take Canadians jobs.

How many times have I heard? But this is Canada and Harper can't do that? Harper is pure unadulterated evil and people had better, wake the hell up.

Owen Gray said...

Perhaps that's what the EKOS poll is all about, Anon. Perhaps Canadians are waking up.

Pamela Mac Neil said...

Hi Owen
If any good has come out of Harper winning a majority in 2011 it's that Canadians have had more opportunity to see his autocratic governing style. Actually he doesn't govern he rules. I still fear however that there is a chance he may, through deception get elected again in 2015.
I will not feel secure again for my country until I literally see him gone in 2015.

Owen Gray said...

It's possible that he could be returned to office, Pamela. But by that time it will have been ten years. And, after ten years, most governments have worn out their welcome.

Let's hope that a government which had the support of only 25% of all voters will be given its walking papers.

Pamela Mac Neil said...

I agree, but Harper is a whole different animal. He is unlike any PM we have ever had. He will stop at nothing and I mean nothing to win. He is about pursuing power so all underhanded options are doable to him. The majority of times I think that the electorate will overwhelmingly vote him out, but sometimes when I worry about my country because of him being PM, I feel uncertain of this. I don't think most Canadians know how ruthless he really is, but the saving grace in all this may be that most Canadians do not trust nor like him and it's unlikely they'll vote for someone they neither like nor trust.I hope I'm right, but at this stage I'm not taking his loss in 2015 for granted.

Owen Gray said...

When it comes to Harper, it's wise to be skeptical, Pam. He's always been about power -- not policy.

And he wants power without restrictions.

mogs moglio said...

I see a bad moon arising I see trouble on the way don't go out tonight I see trouble "John Fogerty"

Owen Gray said...

Exactly, Mogs.

Pamela Mac Neil said...

One of "Creedance Clearwater Revival's" best songs"

Owen Gray said...

I agree, Pam. And, in this case, it's entirely appropriate.