Saturday, April 18, 2015

Defying The Conventional Wisdom

                                Adrian Wyld / THE CANADIAN PRESS file photo 

Justin Trudeau appears to have ruled out any coalition arrangement with the NDP. But Chantal Hebert believes that such an arrangement is still possible:

But what if, instead, the Conservatives finished only two or three seats ahead of the runner-up?
Would Canada then not be better served by a minority government whose stability was ensured by some form of formal understanding with one of its opposition rivals?

It was in similar circumstances that David Peterson’s Liberals struck an alliance with the NDP to replace the Tories in power at Queen’s Park in the mid-1980s.
If the result had not been as close — a mere four seats separated the first-place Conservatives from the Liberals on election night — chances are the Tory status quo would have prevailed.

No leader is going to talk coalition as he or she goes into an election. But, ultimately, voters will determine what arrangements will be necessary in the House of Commons:

If they were to make a move along the lines of a coalition or some looser arrangement to oust Harper they would have to cross the Rubicon at the time of the speech from the throne.

Likewise, the current speculation is almost always premised on a second-place Liberal party to the exclusion of a) the NDP keeping the lead opposition position in a minority parliament and b) the Conservatives falling to third place.

Conventional wisdom currently has it that the odds for such outcomes range from improbable to unthinkable.

 Voters have been known to defy the conventional wisdom.

A quick note: We'll be in Montreal for the next couple of days. Enjoy Spring. It's finally here.


Anonymous said...

I am glad you finally got spring. We had ours and now summer is in full bloom but that is what you get when you live in one of the warmest places in Canada.

Cheers Owen buddy cheers,
Mogs Moglio
Enjoy the buds and the blossoms eh.

CuJoYYC said...

Coalition is substantially different that a minority government. The constant chatter about coalitions plays to Harper's base of walking Pavlovian cash machine that donate at every ring of the CPC bell.

Owen Gray said...

Harnessing stupidity sometimes has its advantages, CuJoYCC.

Owen Gray said...

Unfortunately, Mogs, it's still a little chilly around here. Mother Nature isn't sure which season we're in.

Anonymous said...

Owen February out here in the OK [Okanagan]valley was warmer than March and March warmer than April. So it has gotten progressively colder. Usually according to weather statistics the most snowfall is 2 centimeters. When my wife and I first moved here in September 2014 it was delicious. Then when winter hit they had record snowfalls they had not seen in over forty years. But only two that was it.

Well Owen we came from snow country BC to one of the warmest climates in Canada in BC. So I kept teasing the locals that we brought the now with us. He-he!

It brags "The Largest Outdoor Farmer's Market" and Owen they have been producing organic since 1990 some not all. I prefer the organic ones because the taste is beyond belief! The tomatoes are heaven the peaches you have to put a saucer under your chin because they are so juicy. Okay I'll quit teasing you with my new home and truth eh?

Cheers Owen cheers,
Mogs Moglio

Owen Gray said...

You're making me feel envious, Mogs.