Harris On Singh

Four days ago, I wrote that Jaqmeet Singh engineered his own demise when he tore up his agreement with Justin Trudeau's Liberals. Michael Harris believes Singh had no choice. He writes:

The timing of Singh’s campaign-style announcement is telling. It comes just a week before the return of Parliament, as well as two important byelections in which the NDP is competitive.

The prime minister’s reaction to Singh’s decision was defensive, if not dismissive. Making clear that he hopes it won’t lead to an election before the fixed date of October 2025, Trudeau had this to say on CTV:

“I’m not focused on politics. I’ll let other parties focus on politics. I’m focused on actually delivering things that Canadians told me this summer they need.”

By comparison to Trudeau’s hike up the high road, Pierre Poilievre waded into the NDP’s news with political elbows high. Calling Singh’s decision to abandon the deal with the Liberals a “stunt,” Poilievre said at a press conference in Nanaimo.

“My message to sellout Singh is this: If you’re serious about ending your costly carbon tax coalition with Trudeau, then commit today to voting for a carbon tax election at the earliest confidence vote in the House of Commons.”

Poilievre's reaction was predictable. Like Donald Trump, he believes you can score political points by name-calling. Singh's problem was that the agreement gave him no political boost: 

The deal was a flop at the political box office for the NDP. Instead of getting credit for pushing the Trudeau government on key, progressive issues, the party saw its popularity decline.

Some pollsters have projected that the NDP will win fewer seats at the next election than they did in 2021. The lesson seems to be this: Trudeau and the Liberals are so deeply unpopular with Canadians in almost every region in the country, that anyone seen as propping them up damages their own brand — no matter how noble their reason for doing so.

Pollster and data-scientist Nik Nanos said that the NDP have not benefited from the deal, noting that the party ranks lower in the polls than the embattled Liberals.

“Maybe it’s a moral victory from a policy perspective, but it sure isn’t a political victory in terms of gains in ballot support for the New Democrats,” he told CTV.

Unfortunately, that's been the story of the NDP. Canada's most progressive policies started out in the NDP brain trust. But it's been the Liberals who implemented them.

Image: Facebook

Singh's Demise

Jagmeet Singh has done it. Yesterday he cancelled his agreement with the Liberals. Max Fawcett writes:

After months of speculation about the fate of the confidence and supply agreement that bound his party to the federal Liberal government and a few days of being taunted as a “sellout” by Pierre Poilievre, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh pulled the plug on the deal Wednesday.

“The Liberals have let people down,” Singh said in a video. “They don’t deserve another chance from Canadians.” In the process, though, Singh showed why he probably doesn’t deserve another one either. 

That doesn't mean there'll be an election tomorrow. The New Democrats simply don't have the resources they need to go into an election:

For all the bravado and bluster about how he “ripped up” the deal, it’s not like he actually intends to bring down the government any time soon. The NDP’s  provincial wings in British Columbia and Saskatchewn are in the midst of election campaigns of their own, and there simply isn’t enough volunteer labour to support a federal campaign right now. There’s also the non-insignificant matter of the NDP’s underwhelming bankroll, which has been dedicated to paying off the $22 million debt it racked up in the last election. If he tries to bluff Trudeau on a potential confidence vote, he should expect it to be called immediately. 

The party should be riding a wave. It's got a lot of what it wanted. And the Liberals have tanked:

With a tired and increasingly error-prone Liberal government, a Conservative leader who loves nothing more than getting high on his own supply, and a political environment that’s elevating issues like the cost of living and housing, the NDP should be poised to make major gains. Instead, they might be lucky to keep the seats they have if Singh remains leader — especially if they can’t establish themselves as the prevailing progressive alternative. 

That’s still on the table, by the way. A recent Abacus Data poll showed the NDP has both a larger potential vote universe than the Liberals and more opportunity to consolidate the progressive vote under its banner. “If it became clear that the NDP had the best chance of stopping the Conservatives from winning the election,” its analysis said, “we find that 11 per cent of committed voters or 35 per cent of Liberal, Green, and BC supporters would probably vote NDP, while 6 per cent of the committed electorate or 20 per cent of Liberal, Green, and BC supporters would definitely vote NDP.” If the two groups are combined, the NDP’s vote share rises to 35 per cent — just seven points behind the CPC. 

But that won't happen with an NDP leader who can't stand up to Poilievre who -- let's face it -- is the snotty-nosed bully on Parliament Hill.

Image: Obert Madondo / Flickr.