Monday, September 14, 2020

Trudeau's Green Gamble

Michael Harris writes that Justin Trudeau is preparing to take a green gamble. The last time the Liberals placed that bet, things did not work out well for them:

In 2008, then Liberal leader Stephane Dion took on Stephen Harper and his Conservative government by pitching a Green Shift for Canada. Dion introduced the notion of a carbon tax linked to tax cuts, claiming that a host of economists and environmentalists endorsed his policy. The Liberal leader warned that Canada must either get greener or face tariff restrictions on energy exports like dirty oil from the tarsands.

Harper’s counterpunch promptly dumped Dion on his backside. Harper claimed that Dion’s plan would destroy the economy to the point where national unity itself would be at stake.

According to the scorecards of Canadian voters, Harper recorded a TKO over Dion. Although he didn’t achieve a majority government, Harper won 143 seats, 16 more than the party held in 2006 — good enough for another minority.

As for the Green Shifter, he and his party won just 77 seats, 18 less than they had won in 2006 under an Ad-Scammed Paul Martin. The party received its lowest popular votes in 100 years. Dion resigned days after his humiliating defeat. The Green Shift entered the history books as the Green Faceplant.

But the times have changed. Big Oil is leaving the building:

ExxonMobil was just dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average after 92 years of preeminence. The world’s most valuable publicly-traded company, estimated to be worth $500 billion in 2008, has lost nearly two-thirds of its value. ExxonMobil was also dropped from the top 10 on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index. There are now no oil companies in S&P’s top 10.

Last December, just before the pandemic hit, Saudi Arabia sold off 1.5 per cent of state-owned oil giant Saudi Aramco, raising $25.6 billion in the world’s biggest share sale. It was part of a plan to create a massive sovereign wealth fund. According to Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as reported in Bloomberg News back in 2016, the goal is to make investments in non-petroleum assets. That way, the main source of the kingdom’s revenue will be investments, rather than oil.

Shell Oil dumped most of its investment in the Alberta tarsands in 2017.

Several financial institutions, including Deutsche Bank, will no longer invest in new fossil fuel developments, including those in the tarsands or coal projects.

Bond rating agency Moody’s coolly concludes that “modest enduring changes due to behavioural change combined with government policies and technological advantages designed to reduce carbon emissions could make it unlikely that oil demand will return to its pre-COVID levels.”

Nonetheless, we should expect Erin O'Toole -- who won the leadership of the Conservatives with Jason Kenney's help -- to follow the Harper playbook.  The NDP and Green response is yet to come.

Whatever happens, it's wise to remember that Kermit the Frog opined that it's not easy being Green.

Image: You Tube


2 comments:

rumleyfips said...

Harris ignored Quebec where the next election will be decided. A province with a lot of environmental concern but a right wing government and an electorate with 4 choices and 25% of Canada's population makes it key. Blanchet will retain some influence, but his popularity seems in decline. The NDP hope for status quo. O'Toole is anti human rights and pro Trump; policies that will not endear him to many Quebecoise. Trudeau's green shift along with EI, daycare, eldercare etc. could be what Quebec wants.

Owen Gray said...

I suspect that Trudeau has his eye on Quebec, rumley -- hoping that many Quebecers have forgotten SNC-Lavalin.