Bob Rae writes in today's Globe and Mail that the American election will be all about voter turnout:
The rise of Barack Obama, like that of Justin Trudeau in Canada, was about harnessing charisma, eloquence, charm, openness, humour and, yes, celebrity, to a more progressive and open approach to life and politics. The election of both depended on a single phenomenon: voter turnout. Citizens whose interest had been suppressed by their negative impression of the political process were sufficiently aroused to vote. The most important part of President Obama’s speech at the Democratic convention was his statement that “politics is not a spectator sport.” When the crowd booed his mention of Mr. Trump’s name, he rightly said, “Don’t boo – vote.” As it was for Mr. Trudeau’s team in Canada, Mr. Obama’s success depended on his ability to expand the voting universe.
Like Stephen Harper, Donald Trump is doubling down on his base. That strategy failed dismally for Harper. It will probably fail dismally for Trump -- unless Hillary Clinton fails to mobilize voters and attract not only progressives but also disenfranchised Republicans.
Yesterday, New York Republican Richard Hanna endorsed Clinton. And, also yesterday, the Los Angeles Times reported that:
Meg Whitman, the Hewlett-Packard chief executive who ran unsuccessfully for governor of California in 2010, will back Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, joining other prominent Republicans troubled by Donald Trump's candidacy.
“Trump’s unsteady hand would endanger our prosperity and national security. His authoritarian character could threaten much more,” wrote Whitman, urging fellow Republicans to reject his nomination.
In recent days, Trump has drawn scorn from Democrats and Republicans alike for his criticism of an American Muslim family whose son died in combat in Iraq, and several leading Republican operatives have backed off from supporting Trump.
Sally Bradshaw, an influential GOP strategist in Florida who advised former Gov. Jeb Bush during his primary campaign, announced Monday that she would leave the party.
A day later, Maria Comella, a top former advisor to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, also called Trump a demagogue and signaled her support for Clinton.
Trump, she said, "has been a demagogue this whole time, preying on people's anxieties with loose information and salacious rhetoric, drumming up fear and hatred of the 'other.' "
If Hillary is to win, she'll need to take a page out of Ronald Reagan's playbook. He won by attracting "Reagan Democrats." Hillary will need to appeal to "Clinton Republicans."
Image: The Los Angeles Times
25 comments:
Contrary to my general impression, Owen, I guess there are a few Republicans with at least a modicum of integrity.
At the moment, Lorne, you can count them on the fingers of one hand. But I suspect that, if polls indicate Republicans will be defeated in the House and the Senate, there will be all kinds of conversions.
If Hillary is to win she'll have to be a bribe-taking fake-liberal sellout offering empty promises to progressives while delivering Republican government that represents the establishment? Like anyone needs to tell her that.
But if anyone's wondering why we have economic collapse, environmental ruin and a civilization on the verge of implosion: centrist cattle literally beg for it.
-Bernie Orbust
We've been over this before, Bernie. I don't expect you to agree. Nevertheless, I publish your objections.
The crossovers may be the most corrupt of all. They do what there corporate masters dictate and the corporation sees Trump as an extessential threat. He is neither tweedledum or tweedle dee. Its profoundly disturbing to see the media and masters of the universe line up with Hillary. I say vote for Kaos.
I suspect there are a lot of Bernie kamikazes who think they will be voting for Trump in order to stick it to the DNC and Hillary.
No matter what Bernie says.
That's the basic question, Dana. It clear that the Republicans are at war with each other. We'll have to see if the Democrats will also form a circular firing squad.
Is that a reference to Get Smart, Steve?
I completely agree with Harris central thesis. The USA is insane but then the USA has been certifiably insane since at least 2001 (read Le Carre from 2003) and it's long onset has been since the 60s.
Bernie always said it was about the movement, not him. He also said if he tells you to vote for someone, don't listen to him.
Bernie has his reasons for backing Clinton. But the fact is the movement is DOA if Hillary wins. It can fight against president Trump united. But it can't fight against establishment capture of government under a Democratic banner united.
If Trump wins, it's a Elizabeth Warren New Deal for 2020. If Hillary wins, a Republican revolution in 2020. (12 years of Great Recession under Democratic presidents: the worst slump in American history.) That puts off the New Deal until 2024. By that time, fascist revolutions and world war will have broken out. (Unless Hillary actually starts WW3 by reviving the Cold War which goes hot; or with banking regulation: another global financial meltdown will trigger fascist revolutions and world war.)
In short: the time for fooling around with bribe-taking fake-liberal sellouts has passed. All that worthless capital has been blown. Kicking the can down the road at this point in time is simply kicking the can.
-Bernie Orbust
The recovery hasn't been robust, Bernie. But the Great Recession hasn't lasted for twelve years.
This will interest you.
https://georgelakoff.com/2016/07/23/understanding-trump-2/
As a corollary to Lakoff's piece, I think you'll find this interesting, Dana.
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism
The current economic slump has been 8 years long since the 2008 global financial meltdown. It's generally called the Great Recession. By 2020, it will be 12 years long. (Longer than the Great Depression of 10 years.)
The only thing that can end the slump is to put an end to the Friedmanian neoliberal era by reviving FDR's New Deal and the progressive policies of the post-war Keynesian era. (Hard to believe both Democrats and Republicans were progressives in the post-war era. Now neither party is.)
-Bernie Orbust
One more bit of research, from Canada.
Bob Altemeyer's - The Authoritarians
Bob Altemeyer's work precedes Trump but his analysis of authoritarians explains much.
Thanks, Toby. There appears to be a good deal of research to explain who Trump is. What it really shows is Trump's constituency.
I agree that both parties bought into Neo-liberalism, Bernie. But there are differences between the parties. They are not identical twins.
Mr. Orbust has his opinions, Owen, and you're not going to reason him out of them. I choose Hillary for two reasons - Trump is a bit unhinged emotionally and it's essential there' no Republican in the White House to fill the four Supreme Court vacancies expected this term.
Owen you had to ask, I was going to put up Max and 99 with Trump and Hillary heads but that would be disrespectful.
I loved the show, Steve. I'm sure Donald Trump would be a gold mine for Mel Brooks.
I'll continue to publish Bernie's comments, Mound. But I can only repeat myself so many times. I agree with you. Hillary has all kinds of baggage. But Trump would be apocalyptic. It appears that his own party is beginning to cotton on to just what they've done.
And this today in the NYT.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/04/opinion/campaign-stops/the-eternal-return-of-unenlightened-despotism.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region®ion=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region
An excellent piece, Dana. Thanks for the link. Trump will only succeed if the majority of Americans buy the argument that their problems can only be solved by a despot. We await their decision.
Owen, I think you and the mound are looking at the situation all wrong. What we have has to be destroyed for humanity to survive. Just like Canada needed JT to be real. America needs FDR to heal. This will only come from the disaster that would be a Trump presidency. Belive me now and I will tell you later, even Trump would not invest in thermuclear war.
We disagree, Steve. Just as lots of folks underestimated the damage Richard Nixon could do, they've underestimated the disasters which Trump leaves in his wake. What Richard Hofstader called "The Paranoid Style" in American politics is self destructive.
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