It looks like 2019 will be the worst year of Donald Trump's life. As Lawrence Martin sees it, there could be six possible outcomes:
We’ll start with his worst, a public hanging. It foresees the Democrats having enough ammunition with the findings of the Robert Mueller probe to launch impeachment proceedings. To succeed, they would need a two-thirds majority in the Senate. That would require about 20 Republicans deserting Mr. Trump. But if his support level, low to begin with, is falling, such a number could well conclude they cannot win with him and join hands with the Democrats to bring him down.
Another is a Trump makeover. New chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, who has more political smarts than the outgoing John Kelly, convinces the President that he can’t win by constantly pandering to his narrowing nativist base. Mr. Trump, who has never shown himself capable of pulling in his horns, does so. His number of dumbo eruptions is reduced by half. He gets a deal with China. The economy holds. Mr. Mueller’s findings aren’t crippling. The President nudges up in the polls, positioning himself for a possible triumph in 2020.
A third potential outcome sees an escalation of the current chaos, dysfunction, scandals, and a President as unhinged as ever. But Republicans cower. They see that his fiercely loyal base, although shrinking somewhat, is still with him. They refuse to challenge him. They march with him toward oblivion.
Scenario four is the great schism. The Grand Old Party finds itself so embittered at having become the Trump Party that it splits. Rebels backed by the best minds on the right form a new conservative party. They realize the split will ensure an election of the Democrats but reason that defeat is inevitable anyway.
Upshot number five finds Mr. Trump in a legal nightmare, facing charges for which he is clearly culpable. There is only one escape. He cuts a deal to hand over the presidency to his Vice-President in exchange for a pardon.
A sixth possible denouement may well be the most likely. Mr. Trump’s year unfolds badly. It’s hell on wheels. Disgusted Republicans decide they can’t win with him, but they don’t want to go to such extremes as impeachment.
Instead they mount a different form of mutiny. They mount a strong internal challenge in the primaries. The party flocks to his opponent. A ferocious primary fight ensues. The mad king is toppled.
The first scenario would be the most satisfying denouement. But it's the least likely. The second scenario is truly frightening. I'm betting that Trump will resign.
But that's still a long shot. Whatever happens, it will be a helluva year.
Image: Eric Spitznagel
6 comments:
.. yes.. I forecast a resignation with explanation.. Perhaps a health issue explain & doctor's advisement.. blah blah woof woof. Otherwise Pense likely goes round the toilet bowl too, per damning Mueller findings. Its tough when the President's lawyer Giuliani can't even spell Mueller correctly, having seen it thousands upon thousands of times spelled correctly. Hannity et al will shriek and cry and Mitch McConnell will stuff his ass into the breach in the dam or hole in Trump's Legacy Wall. The denials, defections and deflections will be monumental... But, and its a huge 'but' - the Democrats must come up with a credible replacement. That's the lesson served these last few years across the board of 'politics' - Have a better replacement for the one being turfed
The Democrats now have leverage, sal. But they have yet to prove that they have a better alternative.
.. Olav Rokne does an interesting guest article, a roundup of Democratic potentials on Alberta Politics (David Climenhaga)
It's not easy being a progressive these days, sal. The problem is that lies seem to be more powerful than the truth.
.. mmn .. That's debatable, Owen.
Perhaps Truth is like an iceberg..
Good point, sal. Truth is rarely found on the surface of things. You've got to be willing to dig to find it.
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