Andrew Nikiforuk writes that COVID-19 is a wildfire:
A pandemic is like a wildfire. The more fuel it finds, the hotter it burns and before you know it is running out of control, and there are not enough resources to put it out.
COVID-19 is a fire burning through human communities. We can slow this fire and perhaps even manage its spread by purposely reducing the fuel load. That means breaking the chain of infection by closing public places, eliminating travel and avoiding crowds, and washing hands.
But inertia is the general response to things that cannot be seen, such as multiplying viruses in asymptomatic carriers. Canada did not restrict travel from infected areas fast enough. It did not test and contain enough. Now that community spread is well established in B.C., Alberta and Ontario, things will get ugly before they will get better.
But community action can still determine how bad things become and how fast we recover from this biological invasion.
We long ago stopped acting as citizens and started thinking of ourselves as consumers. But acting like a consumer will not stop this virus:
COVID-19 is a stealth virus and an entirely new one. It can breeze through a community much like the flu, but is ten times deadlier.
It is highly contagious and could have an infection rate between 35 per cent and 70 per cent in Canada. That means if one infected person mingles in a crowd of 50 people and shakes hands and sneezes, between 15 and 35 people will become infected.
By the time health officials reported three deaths from COVID-19, as many as 1,500 infections have already passed through the community, reports University of Toronto epidemiologist David Fisman. How can that be when the reported death rate in other countries is far higher than three out of 1,500? Because we are at a moment when the virus is being spread quickly and widely but quietly because so many aren’t yet showing symptoms. The curve is almost certainly sharply steepening; we just can’t see it yet.
Dr. Michael Warner, an intensive care doctor at Michael Garron Hospital, elucidates on the math: There are 14.5 million Canadians in Ontario. Thirty per cent could contract COVID-19. Of those infected, five per cent will require time in intensive care. That’s 217,500 patients. But there are only 400 ICU physicians in Ontario who normally care for 12 to 16 patients.
“Soon everyone in Canada will know someone with #COVID-19. Do we have to wait for this to occur to acknowledge it is completely irresponsible for the government to deem safe gatherings of (less than) 50 people?” he recently asked on Twitter.
“If you wait until it’s a crisis and then say we’re going to respond to this crisis by implementing drastic public health measures, they will work, they will work predictably, but you’ve already missed the boat,” Fisman has warned repeatedly.
“The time to intervene,” he said on CBC, “was before it got bad because you knew it was going to get bad, you knew that when it was quiet was the time for you to intervene.”
Given the math, the path is clear. It's time to become citizens again. The lives of thousands of Canadians depend on a paradigm shift.
Image: System 100
8 comments:
Nice thoughts, but without people seeing more cases, they would never have complied with government orders to "shut it down". Hind sight is always 20/20 visions. In B.C. the first cases were in one Senior Care residence in North Vancouver. Since then it has spread, but slowly. It took some time to make it to Vancouver Island, but now we have it. The deaths have been restricted to 7 at the Senior Care residence in North Vancouver and one male in the Fraser Valley in his 80s.
On 13 March gatherings were restricted to 250. As of Monday the Chief Provincial Medical officer has started shutting down the province and casinos were closed. As of Tuesday, we're "living in place". In my opinion, B.C. has handled it well. We do have more "closures" than Ontario.
some have argued if one province closed all schools and universities, all provinces ought to have done the same. However, given provinces are not going to give up their authority, that wasn't going to happen. How a province handled the out break will be left up to the voters. Ontario and Alberta, in my opinion, have not been as fast off the mark as other provinces. Then again, look who leads them.
Comparing this to a wild fire is a tad off, in my opinion, because people can see a wild fire and will respond, in most cases. this virus can't be seen until people are actually ill. With wild fires many do not want to leave their properties, even when ordered to do so. When B.C. went from 80 something to a 180 something the emergency was declared and all school closed, crowd control--10 people. We're not in lock down, but close to it.
This is the first pandemic in awhile, 100 yrs since the Spanish flu. In my opinion, B.C. and Ottawa have handled the matter well. We will see a lot of arm chair quarter backs and "scientists/doctors" who will want their 15 seconds of fame and getting on air to criticise the various governments. They usually don't understand the people in the province though. We have to look no further than Iran which can not get its population to stop going out. Argentina ditto. Peru is using the military to patrol the streets to keep people in their homes. China in some cases had to lock people in their homes.
We could have acted more quickly, e.a.f. But there is no excuse now for sitting on our backsides.
.. e.a.f. .. with respect.. the 'voters will decide' may be a grave misconception. We (Canadians) vote in our ridings for Public Service candidates at federal and provincial levels. The candidates are chosen by Political Parties.. who are essentially subsidized in part by the voters.. ie taxpayer money. We only get to vote for a candidate or incumbent of the Parties choice and funding.. or independant candidates. Who Albertans will vote for is some sort of witchcrafty.. spell.. more a compulsion syndrome that Kenney knew he could trigger. He's a parasite.. its his nature.. Basically, he has already raided Pension Funds to purchase majority ownership & control of the Coastal GasLink Pipeline in British Columbia. Gee, why would he do that ? He just forgot to tell Alberta voters.. or the rest of Canada
Full disclosure - I am an unholy non partisan political virgin - saving it for a special gal or galoot who can then regift it, donate it to The Rapture or sell it on eBay
A good point, sal. It's hard to get away from the influence of Big Money in politics. Let's see if e.a.f. will respond.
Oh, its e.a.f. here. If people aren't happy with Ford's performance on this issue, they can unelect him come election time. Now as to the election process, its the one we have. People can however choose which party they want in office. yes, the ridings decide who is the representative, but as a country we've been happy with it. If we weren't there would be more independents. They can and do win. Not often, but if they're good, they win. '
There are usually at least 4 candidates running in most districts. If none appeal to you, run yourself. big money is in politics. However, in B.C. its out. they passed leg. which prohibits it. Its not so much of a problem any more. In Ontario, it will be up to the voters to press the parties to do the same. Federally we do have limits on how much can be spent and when they don't adhere to it, some former harpercons were prosecuted. Its not a perfect system but it works fairly well. Nothing is ever going to be perfect. Learn to cope and adjust.
From where I sit, e.a.f, it's clear that the best adaptation would be proportional representation.
I know many like proportional representation. I'm not one of them. Used to be and then changed my mind. If more people were active politically, more voted, etc. we might have better results. More people voting would be best because so few do so especially at the local level, which can have huge impacts on our daily lives.
I'm all in favour of increasing voter turn out, e.a.f. Proportional representation would make more of those votes count.
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