Tony Burman is getting more and more certain that Joe Biden will be the next American president. He writes:
With more than 100,000 Americans dead and 40 million others out of work as a result of the pandemic and the U.S. government’s disastrous handling of it, Donald J. Trump will likely be remembered decades from now as the most incompetent, morally corrupt president in modern U.S. history.
It's hard to argue with that conclusion. But, Burman argues, there are several reasons why Trump will be a one-term president:
1. You can see a landslide in the making: Since March, Joe Biden has respected the “stay at home” instructions in his home state of Delaware, and he is doing just fine. In contrast, Donald Trump has hogged the spotlight and it has damaged him. At least two polls this week indicate that Biden is leading by 11 points. Trump’s approval rating has been sinking by the week. Remember that Trump’s margin in 2016 was razor thin — a total of 77,744 votes cast in three states (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) out of 120 million votes overall.
2. Trump's base is collapsing: Trump and the Republicans appear to be losing older voters who have always turned out to support them. Trump’s poor handling of the pandemic, his constant insults of Biden’s age and his persistent efforts to undermine Medicare have turned these voters against him. And unlike Hillary Clinton, Biden is seen as one of them. More broadly, recent polling in 13 swing states indicates a consistent lead for Biden in all of them, and at a level much higher than Hillary Clinton ever achieved.
3. Biden has learned from Hilary's failures: His campaign staff has placed more emphasis on their digital operation and created genuine bridges to the African American, Latino and progressive communities that felt neglected four years ago. Since it is assumed Biden will last only one term, a crucial decision is the choice of his running mate. Two strong front runners are Senators Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, who would both be welcomed by Democratic activists.
4. The worst is still to come for Trump: the U.S. will still be flirting with depression-level economic damage and a “second wave” of the pandemic will begin to surface in the autumn. There is also the certainty that Trump — on the brink of defeat — will try to sabotage the process and claim that the voting is rigged. So, strap in.
5. Facing that immense damage, Biden has been inspired by Franklin Roosevelt: The landscape will be even worse than what Barack Obama and he, as vice-president, inherited in January 2009 in the wake of the 2008 recession. Instead of promising that “nothing would fundamentally change” as he once did as a candidate, there is increasing talk that Biden will be prepared to embrace the radicalism of president Franklin D. Roosevelt who took over from an unpopular Republican opponent during The Great Depression.
That's the future Burman sees. Let's hope he's right.
Image: The Toronto Star
6 comments:
Biden will win if there's a fair election. Trump knows this as well as anyone. It's why he got himself impeached trying to smear Biden's name.
But if winning the popular vote were enough, Hillary Clinton would be president. I strongly suspect that Biden's polling numbers among whites are not yet strong enough to overcome GOP vote suppression against minorities. Since the last election, GOP-controlled state legislatures have shut down hundreds of polling stations in minority neighborhoods and purged millions of names from voting lists. While purged voters are still able to vote, their ballots are provisional. In red states, this means they aren't counted unless there's a lawsuit to force the count. Both Kerry and Clinton folded rather than insisting on counting provisional ballots that exit polls indicated would have seen them win the election.
Mail-in voting negates GOP vote suppression, which is why Trump is so opposed to it and why the GOP majority on the Supreme Court forced in-person voting in Wisconsin in the middle of a pandemic. Trump's plan is to cheat his way to victory, just like he did the last time. When cheating is the game, the GOP are like the Harlem Globetrotters while the Dems are like the hapless Washington Generals. This ain't over yet, not by a long shot.
Cap
Amy Klobucker has disgraced and disqualified herself . Placing her out of bounds may be seen as support for the black community ( weak beer, I know but something at least ). This may hurt Kamala Harris which would be a shame.
I agree this isn't over yet, Cap. Trump and the Republicans know that won't win the popular vote. Their game plan is to suppress votes. That's why Trump is on a tear against mail-in voting, claiming that children will be raiding mailboxes.
Everything will depend on the Democrats' ground gain. They must get all of their voters to the polls.
I admit I have a soft spot for Harris, rumley. Perhaps that's because she graduated from Westmount High in Montreal.
Owen, I have no confidence that Biden will win. He is not popular with many women and younger voters. Like Clinton before him, Biden represents the same old establishment. I think many voters will stay home and the Republicans will cheat.
I'm sure Republicans will cheat, Toby. I hope Americans understand that, if they stay home, they will get four more years of Trump.
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