Yesterday, I wrote that there seems to be a plan among the Trumpers to declare Joe Biden's victory illegitimate. In this morning's Guardian, Lawrence Douglas fleshes out another nasty scenario:
Consider the following scenario: it’s 3 November, 2020, election day. By midnight, it’s clear that former Vice-President Biden enjoys a substantial lead in the national popular vote but the electoral college vote remains tight. With the races in 47 states and the District of Columbia called, Biden leads Trump in the electoral college vote 252 to 240, but neither candidate has secured the 270 votes necessary for victory. All eyes remain on Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and their 46 electoral college votes.
In each of these three states, Trump enjoys a slim lead, but the election-day returns do not include a huge number of mail-in ballots. Some states, such as Colorado, have been counting their mail-in votes from the day they arrived, but not Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. These states do not allow elections officials to begin the task of counting the mail-ins until election day itself. It will take days, even weeks, for the key swing states to finish their count. The election hangs in the balance.
Only not for Trump. Based on his November 3 leads, Trump has already declared himself re-elected. His reliable megaphones in the right-wing media repeat and amplify his declaration, and urge Biden to concede. Biden says he will do no such thing. Biden knows that the bulk of the mail-in ballots have been cast in heavily populated urban areas, where voters were unwilling to expose themselves to the health risks of in-person voting. And he is keenly aware that urban voters vote overwhelmingly Democratic. Indeed, this phenomenon, in which mail-in and provisional ballots typically break Democratic, has been dubbed “blue shift” by election law experts.
It's going to take time to count those mail-in ballots. And Trump has spent the entire campaign railing against them:
The count of the mail-in ballots in the three swing states is plagued by delays. Overworked election officials, slowed by the need to maintain social distance, struggle to process the huge volume of votes. Trump’s lawyers, aided by the Department of Justice, bring multiple suits insisting that tens of thousands of votes must be tossed out for having failed to arrive by the date specified by statute. All the same, as the count creeps forward, a clear pattern emerges. President Trump’s lead is shrinking – and then vanishes altogether. By the time the three states complete their canvass of votes nearly a month after the election, the nation faces an astonishing result. Biden now leads in all three. It appears he has been elected our next president.
Only Trump tweets bloody murder. All his most dire predictions have come to pass. The mail-in ballots are infected with fraud. The radical Democrats are trying to steal his victory. The election has been rigged, he says.
But things could get worse. Consider what might happen:
Now things take an ominous turn. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all share the same political profile: all three states are controlled by Republican legislatures faithful to Trump. And so Republican lawmakers in Lansing, Madison and Harrisburg take up the fight to declare Trump victorious in their state. Citing irregularities and unconscionable delays in the counting of the mail-in ballots, state Republicans award Trump their states’ electoral college votes.
Yet all three of our crucial swing states also have Democratic governors. Outraged by the actions of Republican lawmakers, the Democratic governors of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania announce that they will recognize Biden as having carried their state. They certify Biden as the winner, and send the certificate cast by his electors on to Congress.
Not since the Civil War has the Republic been in such peril.
Image: Esquire Classic
4 comments:
"Forget the politicians. The politicians are put there to give you the idea that you have freedom of choice. You don't. You have no choice. You have owners. They own you. They own everything." - George Carlin
The election in November is a battle among oligarchs. You have libertarian oligarchs lined up behind Trump. You have another group lined up behind Biden which still see a limited role for government. Unless Biden somehow manages an electoral college victory on election night, the election will likely be decided by the SCOTUS, just as it was in 2000.
Cap
The last two Republican presidents lost the popular vote but won the Electoral College, Cap -- in one case, with the help of the Supreme Court. Their disastrous record in government speaks volumes.
This is a scenario, one of a few, I had in mind the other day when I argued that Canada needs to be alert and ready to respond defensively to social upheaval in the United States right up to the inauguration and perhaps beyond.
There is a volatility in American society we've never seen in our lifetimes, Owen. The centre and centre-left were cheated in 2016. With gerrymandering,voter suppression and the Electoral College, no election can be conducted without the Republicans' thumb on the scales. That means Democrats begin elections down several points, a disadvantage that gives Republicans their hold on the Senate.
I think this time the rift could become a fracture.
I fear that, too, Mound. The Republicans have known for quite a while that they are a distinct minority. And they will do anything -- anything -- to stay in power.
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