Frankly, I don't know what will happen to Donald Trump once he leaves office. Julius Krein writes that Trump will disappear over time:
Donald Trump’s refusal to concede the election has fueled intense speculation about his post-presidency: will he start a new conservative cable network? Will he act as a kingmaker in the Republican party? Will he run for president again in 2024?
Underlying all of these rumors is the assumption that Trump will continue to hold sway over a significant voter base. But this is by no means assured. It seems just as likely that, over time, Trump’s trajectory will land him closer to associates like Steve Bannon and Rudy Giuliani – hosting a middling podcast and hawking branded merchandise while trying to fend off prosecution.
The media echo chamber which now insists that Trump will be a titanic political force for years to come sounds increasingly similar to the one that, five years ago, claimed he was no more than a flash-in-the-pan celebrity candidate. The glaring underestimation of Trump in the past and probable overestimation of his prospects today actually stem from the same error: the belief that Trump’s political appeal rests mainly on his personality cult, not on any association with a certain set of policy arguments.
Krein believes that the Republican Party has changed Trump more than he has changed the party:
It is clear that the Republican establishment changed Trump more than he changed the party. Although his administration’s policy record is a mixed bag, the shift in rhetoric over four years was unmistakable. Attacks on hedge fund managers and pharma executives became rarer and rarer, replaced with praise for tax cuts, cheering on the Dow, bashing “socialism” and lauding supreme court appointments. To be sure, arguments can be made for all of these things, at least among conservatives, but they are arguments that Ted Cruz or even Jeb Bush could make, albeit less theatrically. Of late, Trump’s combativeness has focused almost exclusively on allegations of election fraud and cringe-inducing self-pity; most people are already tuning it out.
And, despite Trump's ubiquitous media presence, there are things that are more consequential than being on television 24/7:
The average voter is not motivated entirely by tribal loyalties and subrational impulses (though the average media personality might be). Even if wonkishness is an undesirable trait for presidential candidates, big-picture policy visions matter.
Turning out enthusiastic audiences at rallies and commanding a large social media following are much less important than is commonly believed. Joe Biden proved that in both the Democratic primaries and the general election of 2020. Furthermore, when it comes to policy formation, the effectiveness of mass politics is often constrained by an increasingly oligarchical system. Institutional power often outweighs popular appeal.
Trump's appeal is really like the appeal of so-called "professional" wrestling:
Trump may never lack an audience or fail to draw a crowd. Yet as an aficionado of professional wrestling, he should understand the limitations of a genre in which advertising rates historically tend be quite low relative to ratings, presumably because wrestling’s core audience has comparatively little discretionary spending power. Unfortunately, the parallels between pro wrestling and American politics go beyond the entertainment spectacle; they extend to economics and influence as well.
Like Nietzsche’s Socrates, Trump was “the buffoon who got himself taken seriously”. Unlike a Socratic buffoon, however, Trump never overcame himself. Bereft of the wider critique that once confounded political elites, his personality cult is no longer compelling even as a vessel for ressentiment. Its chief acolytes today are the legacy media operations whose fortunes his nonstop controversies helped revive, opportunistic scribblers hoping to cash in on one more #Maga or #Resistance potboiler, and those who prefer that the media focus on anything except the substantive issues raised in 2016. They will happily ride the Trump gravy train as far as it goes, but it’s already running out of steam.
I'm not sure I buy Krein's argument. But it bears consideration.
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16 comments:
I think he has some good points. It looks like various prosecutors such as Cyrus Vance in New york a.re ramping up their efforts. A lot may depend on how Trump's current supporters view any future prosecutions; as exposing a crook or unjustifiable persecution of a Great Man .
I cannot say I have belief in his statement:
Even if wonkishness is an undesirable trait for presidential candidates, big-picture policy visions matter.
Turning out enthusiastic audiences at rallies and commanding a large social media following are much less important than is commonly believed. Joe Biden proved that in both the Democratic primaries and the general election of 2020.
Uh, turns out that DNC intrigue and oligarchical fear of any candidate that might even slightly disturb the political status quo can lead to a Joe Biden.
BTW, if it appears that I am negative about Biden it is because I am but simply because it seems that a lot of Democratic Party pundits seem to be hailing him as the new messiah and not just another, probably quite competent, US politician---well as competent as Washington politicians tend to be. I think we are seeing a massive outbreak of cognitive dissonance.
Viewing any politician as a messiah is highly dangerous, jrk. However, the United States really needs a good dose of competence.
One of the things I wonder about is what the pundits will talk about once Trump is gone. With the obsessions of channels like MSNBC and CNN, I can't help but wonder if they will be highly motivated to keep Trump in the public eye. I don't think it is too strong to suggest they have developed an addiction to him.
Trump has turned out to be very profitable for those folks, Lorne. There is a profit to be made in bad news.
He might remain indispensable to the GOP Freedom Caucus, cast as their Ghandi, their Mandella, their martyr. He's been the wind in the sails of this radical rightwing rabble, the guy who legitimized crank. Without at least his memory to guide them, they could wind up becalmed in the Sargasso Sea.
Poor Trump. Just when he was saving America for all good, white Americans, the forces of the Deep State, including some Republican Quislings, stole the election for Biden. Just look - he couldn't wait to fill his administration with non-believers, women, people of colour, even gays. The Founding Fathers didn't want any of those people running this nation. Hell those guys, even George Washington, owned coloured folks. Tom, he slept with the good looking ones.
No, the Jim Jordans and the Louis Ghomerts can still get some mileage from keeping Trump's memory alive.
I think Trump will develop major obvious health problems like dementia and his future of any sort is limited. He probably already has the beginnings of dementia, as Reagan did when he was in office, and probably has heart disease of some sort. His future is most likely some sort of nursing home environment. He may know this himself on some level. It may make him even more reckless than he would have been if he had a future to worry about.
This is the nut of it: "the effectiveness of mass politics is often constrained by an increasingly oligarchical system. Institutional power often outweighs popular appeal." Trump will fade away because the oligarchs are done with him. The minute he's no longer president, all the normal social media rules will apply and soon he'll be talking to himself on Parler.
Cap
Cap
There will still be those who will hitch their wagons to Trump's star, Mound -- as long as it doesn't collapse in on itself.
He'd most assuredly make life difficult for the other residents of the nursing home, ffd.
And the oligarchs will search for another useful idiot, Cap.
Will Trump fade away? who knows.
Much will depend upon the rhetoric of the right wing talk show hosts who may incite violence ; but not by themselves of course!
Even before Trump , right wing talk show host Glen Beck was using language such as 'who will cast the first stone" to provoke his listeners.
Limbaugh has done similar but half backed away when confronted.
There is a pattern by US right wing talk show and TV personalities.
They push prod and elaborate news to suit ultra nationalists and the under educated , who Trump loves,only to pull away ever so slightly as if to deny liability for any consequences.
Shock Jock broadcasting and publishing that was originally made to increase advertising revenue is now having consequences!
The Exited States of America is the result.
TB
Like Trump, TB, the shock jocks are cowards.
will he fade away, reminds me of a 60s song. Well we can hope but it depends up on the MSM. If they stop reporting on him and all his ridiculous tweets, etc. he might. On the other hand, he might be in a lot of trouble shortly in N.Y. state and that would put him in the news again, but this time in a different category. He is big on self promotion, but as the world moves on, and it always does, on to another story, he will fade away. after some months of crazy tweets once Biden/Harris are installed, and something else, big happens, no one will notice him anymore. If we think back on some big stories or weird stuff, like who talks about Bill Cosby anymore or Epstien, etc. No there is no money in the media continuing to write stories about him, he is gone, he is finished and that maybe the worst punishment for him, no one will care and no one will pay attention.
Trump is desperate for attention, e.a.f. Being ignored will drive him crazy -- which is to say, crazier than he already is.
@ cap
I think Trump will develop major obvious health problems like dementia
If you even just go back to 2016, from then to now, you can see some disturbing changes particularly in Trump's verbal behaviour and anger control. Check out one or two videos from 20--30 years ago and the differences are shocking.
My bet, I am not a psychiatrist, is that we have been seeing early dementia or some precursor conditions since the 2016 campaign or before and that they are getting progressively worse.
Without the White house courtiers to shield him, we may be seeing a wreak.
I suspect you may be on to something, jrk. Like that other mob boss -- Al Capone -- Trump's deteriorating brain may do him in.
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