Mark Twain wrote that "history doesn't repeat itself. But sometimes it rhymes." Paul Krugman writes:
Britain in 1940, like Ukraine in 2022, had unexpected success against a seemingly unstoppable enemy, as the Royal Air Force defeated the Luftwaffe’s attempt to achieve air superiority, a necessary precondition for invasion. Nonetheless, by late 1940 the British were in dire straits: Their war effort required huge imports, including both military hardware and essentials like food and oil, and they were running out of money.
Franklin Delano Roosevelt responded with the Lend-Lease Act, which made it possible to transfer large quantities of arms and food to the beleaguered British. This aid wasn’t enough to turn the tide, but it gave Winston Churchill the resources he needed to hang on, which eventually set the stage for Allied victory.
Now Lend-Lease has been revived, and large-scale military aid is flowing to Ukraine, not just from the United States but also from many of our allies.
Thanks to this aid, the arithmetic of attrition is actually working strongly against Putin. Russia’s economy may be much bigger than Ukraine’s, but it’s small compared with the American economy, let alone the combined economies of the Western allies. And with its limited economic base, Russia doesn’t appear to have the capacity to replace its battlefield losses; Western experts believe, for example, that the fighting in Ukraine so far has cost Russia two years’ worth of tank production.
Ukraine’s army, by contrast, is getting better equipped, with ever more heavy weapons, by the day. Assuming Congress agrees to President Biden’s request for an additional $33 billion in aid — a sum we can easily afford — cumulative Western support for Ukraine will soon come close to Russia’s annual military spending.
In other words, as I said, time appears to be on Ukraine’s side. Unless the Russians can pull off the kind of dramatic battlefield success that has eluded them so far — such as a blitzkrieg-style assault that encircles a large part of Ukraine’s forces — and do it very soon, the balance of power seems set to keep shifting in Ukraine’s favor.
The outcome of the war is still unclear -- as it was in 1940. But it appears that some folks have learned the lessons of history.
Image: AZ Quotes
8 comments:
The Russians certainly haven't. Their tank design showed itself vulnerable to rocket attacks during the Papy Bush's Gulf War. The tank's ammunition carousel is in the turret, along with two gunners. Even an indirect hit can cause the turret to blow off in a jack-in-the-box effect as the ammo inside explodes. Their latest tanks continue to use this defective design, whereas NATO tank design changed to avoid this flaw. This is one of the big reasons why Russia has lost so many tanks and other armoured vehicles.
Cap
That's a very interesting piece of information, Cap. One of the lessons of history is that men with big egos fail to learn the lessons of history.
Whereas Ukraine has 'Lend Lease' Russia will not have a Marshall plan to rebuild it's economy whatever the result of the war.
It's lose lose for Russia.
TB
I agree, TB. That doesn't make it easier for the Ukrainians. But there is a lesson here about hubris.
"... $33 billion in aid — a sum we can easily afford ..."
I guess when your national debt is over 30 trillion you can afford just about anything.
JB
It helps when you can print the money, John.
I find the slavish acceptance of the current media narrative around Ukraine/Russia to be at odds with the typical both-side-ism that plagues our modern public discourse.
That said, this case calls out for understanding the other sides' perspective rather than the bravado of the willfully ignorant. False equivalencies with past situations don't help us here.
"But it appears that some folks have learned the lessons of history."
imo, 'both sides' have taught themselves the wrong history lessons and if this NATO/Russia proxy war leads to a nuclear WW3, our sad descendants will see liken it, not to the Battle of Britain. Rather it will look a lot like the assassination of Austrian archduke Franz Ferdinand by a South Slav nationalist.
The First World War should have taught us that it's really easy to get into a war, PoV. It appears that western democracies understand that. However, we could easily get gung-ho and crazy.
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