There Is Much At Stake

Kathleen Wynne's victory, Murray Dobbins writes, offers hope -- not just to Ontario, but to the rest of Canada:

While the right's hardliners may be lighting their hair on fire, citizens on the other hand may actually get to see what governments used to be like. There is, of course, still a possibility that Wynne will renege on these pledges as Liberals have done historically. But just imagine if she does deliver with the most progressive budget in Canada in 20 years. It could have huge implications for politics at all levels.

For forty years the Right has pumped the message that government is essentially evil and incapable of doing good. But Wynne could change that mantra:

If Wynne wants to have a really extraordinary legacy she has a golden opportunity -- and a powerful personal mandate. Progressive politicians can pitch good policies until the cows come home but the impact of actually seeing them work could be enormous: an executed plan is worth a thousand pledges. Wynn's $15-billion mass transit plan is huge in terms of reducing Ontario's climate footprint. Providing retirees with greater income security is something almost every government knows is critically necessary. Her pledge to raise the pay of the lowest paid health- and child-care workers directly addresses the issue of inequality. The rest of the platform was pretty interesting, too.

It all comes down to whether or not she can deliver on her promises. If she does deliver, Dobbins writes, there are three potential long term consequences:

Most important is demonstrating to voters across the country that governments can do things that make their lives better -- voting can make a difference. When the punditry puzzle over how the Liberals could have won despite a litany of corruption charges and large deficits, consider this possibility: the tired mantra about deficits and debt (and the scary bond-raters) suddenly takes its rightful place in the political firmament when it has to compete with real public goods and higher taxes on the undeserving rich.

Secondly, if this does start a trend towards more rational and less ideological politics (like actually addressing the $160-billion infrastructure deficit across Canada) the NDP might once again find the courage to run campaigns and engage the public on social democratic principles. After all, if they are going to mimic the Liberals to get to the centre, better they mimic Wynne (who is moving the centre to the left). NDPers everywhere would thank her (notwithstanding the irony that it took a Liberal to push the fiscal boundary -- sort of like Nixon recognizing China).

Lastly, though there may not be time for this to play out, a government representing over a third of the country's population actually pursuing an activist agenda could make things very difficult for Stephen Harper's continued assault on democratic governance. The 905 area surrounding Toronto went solidly Liberal in this election and it is these voters that Harper must have to win even a minority in 2015. If they are happy with Wynne's performance, Harper could be in serious trouble.

Wynne represents the possibility of better government and a better country. There is a lot riding on her success or failure.

No Discretion, No Valor

There was a time when all parties welcomed a new party leader with a standing ovation. There was a time when all parties allowed that leader time to adjust to his or her new position. That time has passed. These days there are no honeymoons.

On the day after Kathleen Wynne was elected leader of the Liberal Party, Tim Hudak -- following the pattern set a decade ago by his Uncle Stephen -- launched attack ads against Wynne. Andrea Horwath  demanded a public inquiry into the cancelled gas plants.

Martin Regg Cohen points out that:

The auditor general will report on the government’s waste of public funds in March. And MPPs now have more than 50,000 documents to wade through in a legislative committee, which is part of their job description.

And Tim Hudak can't wait to make another strategic blunder:

Hudak faces a different challenge. As a perceived progressive, Wynne opens up space on the centre-right that his Progressive Conservatives would dearly love to reclaim. Trouble is, he has been tacking hard right for a year, issuing provocative “white papers” proposing to privatize electricity generation and unravel union rights. Many centrist voters who might have been up for grabs may be scared off.

Shakespeare's Falstaff proclaimed that discretion is the better part of valor. One wonders if the leaders of the opposition have read Shakespeare.

Whither Wynne?

Ontario's Liberals have a new leader. They cannot call her "Premier Dad." But, even though she can leave the epithet behind, she will not have an easy time. As Thomas Walkom writes in The Toronto Star:

Regardless of who leads it, this is a party — and a government — in deep, deep trouble.

The Liberals are at war with the province’s teachers. If Wynne sticks to the position she supported as a minister in Dalton McGuinty’s cabinet — a position that demands serious spending cuts in order to balance the province’s books — that war will be difficult to end.

More important, this is a government that, in crucial areas, has demonstrated terminal incompetence.

Wynne will have to carry a lot of baggage; and she has a lot of fences to mend. History proves that she faces a Hurculean task:

In Ontario, managerial competence matters. Once a government is deemed incapable of running the store, it is doomed — no matter how charming the leader. Former New Democratic Premier Bob Rae could testify to that

Indeed, governments anywhere can reach a point of no return.

Kim Campbell found that out when she took over the federal Conservatives from Brian Mulroney in 1993.

Rita Johnston suffered the same fate in 1991 after being elected to succeed disgraced British Columbia premier Bill Vander Zalm as head of the governing Social Credit Party.

John Turner took over the federal Liberals from Pierre Trudeau in 1984 — only to go down to defeat in the general election a few months later.

After 15 years of Trudeau, the voters were simply sick of Liberals.

In 2002, Ernie Eves inherited the leadership of the Ontario Conservatives from Mike Harris. Then he went on to lose the next election, a casualty, in part, of his predecessor’s take-no-prisoners approach to government.

Bookmakers would give Wynne long odds. Only time will tell if she can win -- starting, as she does, from the back of the pack.