Four To Go

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As Lawrence Martin sees it, there are four scenarios in Stephen Harper's future. The first is to hold an election at the prescribed date, set in place by a law he passed:

The thinking here is that he needs the time to make up ground on the leading Liberals. Also, he doesn’t want to risk alienating voters by changing the set October date. The timing of the Duffy trial, slated to run from April to June, is troublesome, but it’s better than being seen as forcing an early election to avoid it. The image of being morally bankrupt (see last week’s Paul Calandra fiasco) is already hurting the government. It doesn’t want to fuel that perception.

Then there's the possibility of a spring election:

Mr. Harper brings in a February budget that contains highly controversial measures, then triggers an election on it for the end of March. Many would see this as blatantly opportunistic, coming just ahead of the Duffy trial. But Mr. Harper would rely on the hope that the timing is an issue only for the campaign’s first few days, as we’ve seen in the past. Not to be ignored in these calculations is the chance that the Duffy charges could be settled out of court, or that the trial’s timing is pushed back. No doubt, the Prime Minister’s men will be pulling all strings possible to bring about such outcomes.

A third possibility is that Mr. Harper might call an election this fall:

If Justin Trudeau’s popularity numbers start to slide, Mr. Harper may pounce right away. There is concern in Liberal circles and hope in Conservative precincts that the reason Mr. Trudeau is rushing an autobiography into print (it will be released in three weeks) is that there are embarrassments from his past that he wants to disclose on his own terms, instead of leaving the deed to the Harper attack machine. The Conservatives have a budget update to deliver, and if they’re gaining ground, they may use it – with some big tax-cut promises – as a springboard for a snap election. It would be 31/2 years into a majority mandate. Jean Chrétien went to the polls twice on a similar time frame.

And then, of course, he could resign:

The PM reads the tea leaves/billboards and concludes that it’s time. He calls a Conservative leadership convention to be held in February. The option has much to recommend it. He goes out as one of the big winners in party history, having moved the conservative agenda appreciably forward in many policy areas. He avoids the distinct possibility of a humiliation at the hands of a Trudeau.

Mr. Harper always holds his cards close to his vest. So predicting which scenario he might follow is not easy. Reports are that the party is clamouring for him to leave.  But this is a party which grovels before its leader. And despite the fixed election law, we should all know by now that Mr. Harper believes he can break rules with impunity.

So which route will he take? Your guess is as good as mine.

Time To Hit The Road?

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Conservatives -- at least those  who are capable of sustained thought -- are beginning to wonder if now is the time for Stephen Harper to exit, stage right. The immediate cause of their inquietude is the latest EKOS poll. Tasha Kheiriddin writes:

EKOS finds that the Liberals continue to ride high at 38.7 per cent overall support, while the Tories and the NDP jostle for second place at 25.6 and 23.4 per cent, respectively. The Greens take 7.1 per cent, while the Bloc has 3.7 per cent, representing an anemic 16.4 per cent of the Quebec vote.

And, though they keep trying to pull the same stunt that worked on Stephane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, it isn't working against Justin Trudeau:

So while its ‘Reefer Madness’ campaign pulls in cash from the Conservative base, the Conservative party itself still can’t pull in votes from its rivals. As with other attacks on Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, the campaign succeeds in hitting everything apart from its target: Criticizing Trudeau for supporting marijuana legalization appears to be hardening the base, not growing it. And that is a pattern the Tories will have to reverse before the next election if they want a fourth term in office.

The Conservative strategy from the beginning has been to energize its base and pull in votes from key ridings across the country. Now those key ridings are unimpressed. EKOS reports that the Harperites are behind in eight of the ten provinces.

And, so, the Conservatives face an existential crisis:

The biggest unanswered question, however, is whether the Tories can win with the leader they’ve got. The Conservative base certainly seems to think so: eighty-six per cent would like Prime Minister Stephen Harper to remain as leader, while only 9 per cent want him to quit and 5 per cent don’t know or didn’t answer. These levels dovetail with Harper’s approval rating among Conservative supporters, which sits at 89 per cent in favour, 8 per cent against and 4 per cent undecided or unresponsive.

Among supporters of other parties, it’s an entirely different story. Overwhelmingly, they disapprove of Harper’s performance; 86 per cent of Liberals, 90 per cent of New Democrats, 81 per cent of Greens and 88 per cent of Bloquistes think he is doing a bad job. But when it comes to whether he should resign, the numbers are lower. Sixty-three per cent of Liberals, 71 per cent of New Democrats and Greens, and 67 per cent of Bloquistes think he should quit.

Still, when your approach to governing is "my way or the highway," inevitably, there will come a moment when the voters tell you to hit the road.

Yesterday's Man?

Suddenly -- with the ascension of Justin Trudeau -- everyone is talking about Stephen Harper's future. Michael Harris writes:

If he were a week-old loaf of bread, or a dubious meatball at the back of the fridge, it would be time to throw him out.

But all political leaders wear out their welcomes. The longer you are in power, the higher the pile of dirty laundry gets.

And Tim Harper writes in the Toronto Star:

Should Harper decide to seek another mandate from Canadians in an election that will happen no later than October, 2015 — the Prime Minister has already mused about holding it earlier — he will be trying to break through a wall that many before him have hit — or saw coming too late.

Jean Chrétien, who fired the Liberal audience Sunday with an old-time partisan speech, served 10 years but had to promise to hand off power during the 2000 campaign in order to secure his third majority.

Brian Mulroney, even with two majorities, lasted just short of nine years.

At the provincial level, the same best-before date appears to work. Dalton McGuinty announced he was stepping down almost nine years to the date he was sworn in as Ontario premier. In Quebec, Jean Charest was defeated after nine years in office.

Should Harper decide to run again, he will have passed Louis St. Laurent, Robert Borden and Mulroney by the time the campaign starts and would already have become the sixth-longest serving prime minister in Canadian history before seeking another four years.

Suddenly, Stephen Harper is beginning to look like yesterday's man. At this point, it's a sure bet that Harper doesn't see himself that way. His whole life has been devoted to the acquisition of power. And he loves to exercise it too much to give it up easily.

But, in the end, it's not about how Stephen Harper sees himself. It's about how Canadians see him. If they begin to think of him as  -- to repeat  a recent comment at this space -- "an old man yelling at people to get off his lawn" -- then, indeed, Stephen Harper's days are numbered.