Tightrope Walk

Justin Trudeau has been walking a tightrope lately, Michael Harris writes. His gymnastics were triggered by the resignation of Bill Morneau:

Morneau’s demise triggered a chain of events that prompted the prime minister to take the greatest chance of his political career — the decision to prorogue Parliament with the wolf pack closing in on his alleged ethical shortcomings once again.

That move brought Parliament’s work to a grinding halt, including investigations by parliamentary committees delving into the WE charity affair. Apart from throwing a histrionic hissy fit at press conferences, as the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre did this week, MPs won’t get a chance to call new witnesses before their committees until after a new speech from the throne.

The Conservatives -- particularly Pierre Poilivre -- are furious. But Harris thinks that Trudeau just might get away with it:

The PM bought himself time to craft a new legislative agenda laying out how he plans to restart the economy. Judging from the massive amounts of money already spent on supporting millions of Canadians through the pandemic, it will be a dramatic agenda.

The government is hoping that hitting the reset button will make such a splash that only parliamentary nitpickers will continue to gripe about a dubious program that managed to last all of one week, and has already claimed the finance minister.

The prorogation will be short. And it will end with a Speech from the Thone. Will there be a snap election?

The PM is betting that no political party, with the exception of the Bloc Québécois, will be anxious to trigger an election. He is probably right.

The Conservatives need time to establish the fact that there is a new marshal in town. Going into an election with a leader just over a month on the job would be dicey.

Where would the policy come from? Where would the money come from? Where would the candidates come from? And how would Canadians feel about an election foisted on them during a pandemic? (We will soon see, as New Brunswick heads to the polls in September after its minority government couldn’t work a deal with the opposition.)

As for the NDP, the financial cupboard is bare. Besides, Jagmeet Singh has a chance to use the Trudeau government’s vulnerability to negotiate progressive policies as the price of his support. Things like child care, where he has already gotten $2 billion out of the government, and pharmacare.

As for the Greens, the party is in the middle of a leadership battle and might not even have a new leader if the government were to fall in September.

It's the kind of thing that Trudeau the Elder would do. And it's the kind of thing that Mackenzie King did frequently.

Image: the globeandmail.com

It Just Might Work

If you want to know what kind of finance minister Chrystia Freeland will be, Tim Harper suggests that you take a look at her book, Plutocrats: The Rise of the New Global Super-Rich and the Fall of Everyone Else:

Chrystia Freeland’s deep dive into the workings of the richest of the rich was a noteworthy work by a globe-trotting financial journalist. It avoided beating the super-elite over the head with a Pierre Poilievre-style club, but picked apart the dangers for society as a whole as the super rich pull further away from the rest of us.

In the “Plutocrat” era of a decade ago, Freeland spoke of recovery from the 2008 collapse as a recovery of the one per cent. She spoke of the need for a new deal to guard against the stalling of social mobility, in which the space between the rungs at the top and the bottom get bigger and it becomes harder for the rest of us to climb.

Twelve years removed from that crisis, Freeland assumes the government’s top portfolio amidst a recession driven by a global pandemic, and the “Plutocrat” challenges are more acute. Trudeau spoke of a recovery that includes women, youth, racialized and Indigenous Canadians who have been hurt most, but he also spoke of the pandemic as an opportunity to be bold. He spoke of giving everyone a chance, not just the one per cent.

It's clear that Trudeau intends to move his government to the left -- and he's daring the opposition parties to take him down. He has prorogued parliament and some will say he's showing ethical cowardice. That will be the criticism from the Conservatives and the Bloc. But Andrew Scheer continues to sound like a high school student who is miffed because he lost a student council election. And Yves-Francois Blanchet keeps sounding like a grumpy grandfather on his front porch.

Trudeau says he's doing a reset -- and he intends to make the NDP and Green Party players. His plans could all come crashing down with a non-confidence vote. And a national election during a pandemic would be a whole new ballgame.

On the other hand, it just might work.

Image: St Catherines Standard