Yesterday, Donald Trump announced that he had reached a trade deal with Mexico. Like so much that comes from Trump's mouth these days, that simply wasn't true. Lawrence Herman writes:
Telling the Mexican President that the United States might want to pursue a separate trade deal with them seems to have taken the Mexicans aback, Mexico never contemplating having to go up alone against the United States. It’s clear by now that Mr. Trump and his team don’t like dealing with Canada. That’s reflected in Canada being sidelined for weeks while the other two governments held high-level meetings behind closed doors – a disgracefully bad-faith tactic on the part of the Americans. Regardless of claims that the auto issues in the North American free-trade agreement were exclusively a U.S.-Mexico concern, Canadian companies have invested heavily in Mexican operations, and Canada had every right to be at the table while the other two governments hammered things out.
Trump wants to name his "achievement" the U.S.- Mexican Trade Deal. But NAFTA is still in effect:
As to talk of a fully revised NAFTA being concluded in the next few weeks, there seems little possibility of that. At last count, 10 of the 30 chapters of this enormously complex agreement, containing some of the most contentious issues, remain unresolved.
Added to these timing difficulties is that U.S. law requires the President to give Congress 90 days advance notice of his intention to sign the agreement, meaning a final treaty, not just an understanding or statement of principles. And after being signed by the President, Congress has a further 90 sitting days to consider it. It can be approved or rejected during that period.
With U.S. mid-term elections in November, it’s impossible for the current Congress, even under the so-called lame-duck period before year-end, to be presented with a new NAFTA and to examine it within 90 sitting days as mandated by statute.
In his telephone call, Mexican president Enrique Pena Nieto kept repeating the mantra "NAFTA," making it clear that he was involved in a three way negotiation. But Trump lives in his own world. He thinks he has a bilateral trade deal with Mexico. In reality, all he has is a shiny object which he can use after the legal pommelling he took last week, and after he was upstaged by John McCain's death.
One only needs to remember that Trump claims to have reached an agreement with Kim Jong Un to get rid of North Korea's nuclear weapons. But North Korea doesn't see things that way.
Will there be a deal? Who knows? But when Trump says he's negotiated such a deal, no one should believe him.
Image: The Independent
8 comments:
He has signed a deal before and then backed out as soon as he got to the getaway jet.
We should know by now, rumley, that his word is worth zilch.
Nieto is on his way out. Observador doesn't sound quite so fervent in demanding a 3-way NAFTA or any NAFTA at all. This, from CBC:
"We are very interested in this being an agreement of three countries," said president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Observador. At the same time, Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray told reporters that "Mexico will have a free trade agreement regardless of the outcome" of U.S.-Canada negotiations.
As far as Mexico is concerned, if Canada can come to terms acceptable to Trump, that's great. If not, "Mexico will have a free trade agreement regardless."
Does that sound like Mexico is going to the mats with us? Hardly.
Sounds like it's everybody for him or herself, Mound -- the law of the jungle.
In Trump's dreams. he thinks he can "scare" Freeland/Trudeau into doing what he wants. He dislikes both of them and most likely dislikes Ms. Freeland even more than Trump.
As Orin Hatch, said today, the U.S.A. needs Canada to be part of the deal because we are their biggest trading partner. without Canada as part of NAFTA or any other deal, there will be 35 American states who are loosing their biggest trading partner. That will not go over well when Americans start loosing jobs.
If Mexico is dumb enough to sign a deal with the U.S.A. without Canada, they are going to be for a world of hurt. Trump will then put the boots to them and renege on all sorts of items in the "deal" and the U.S.A will control more of the Mexican economy than they do now.
Canada will go through a touch period, but we will survive much better than those 35 American states, whose biggest trading partner is Canada. Now Trump can talk all he wants but really, it Congress who has to vote and Trump isn't one of those voters.
Trump also has the no small problem of his trade war with China. if that continues and no deal with Canada, Trump will be in more trouble than he can imagine. of course in his imagination he is the King of the U.S.A. and can do what he wants. That may not come to pass after Nov.
NAFTA is technically three trade agreements, Canada/Mexico, Mexico/US, Canada/US, with a bunch of overlaps, but also, unique differences due to the economic relationships and interests between the 3 countries.
Mexico also, like Canada is a member of CPATPP, also known as TPPII, so what ever happens between Canada and Trumpistan, doesn't effect Mexico/Canada trade.
The whole MSM "meme" of Canada and Mexico double teaming Trumpistan was lazy BS. Countries have interests, not allies when it comes to trade.
And as has been pointed out before, the Incoming Mexican Administration ( December 1st), has a much different economic/political world view than the outgoing Petro Cronies.
BTW, a world with out America, interesting reading,
https://warisboring.com/the-world-turns-without-america/
Someone has to have the courage to call Trump's bluff, e.a.f. His objections -- like his refusal to recognize John McCain's legacy -- are always personal. There will be a rough patch. But, ultimately, a bully always shows his ccowardice.
Thanks for the link, Jay. This is a critical moment for the United States. It can look out on the world, or it can look at Donald Trump's navel. That navel isn't worth two minutes of anyone's time.
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