Lawrence Martin writes that Donald Trump is not likely to win re-election. What used to be his strong suit -- the economy -- has been shattered by the coronavirus:
The Trump Republicans are hopeful that when the lockdown is lifted, the economy will come roaring back. Not by the fall it won’t. The stock market might be back up but the unemployment and GDP numbers will be brutal. The Republicans never win with the economy in the tank.
They lost in 2008 when George W. Bush left behind a shattered economy. They lost in 1992 when his father was in power and the economy was downward bound. They lost in 1932 when Herbert Hoover faced the country during the Great Depression.
And, while the virus was taking hold in his country, Trump slept -- like Rip Van Winkle:
The American media is probing deeply what happened in January and February. Revelations of Oval Office inertia keep on coming.
Time after time, he was warned of the seriousness of the virus, and time after time, other than placing limited restrictions on travel from China, he failed to respond. While other leaders are gaining popularity for their handling of the crisis, Mr. Trump is not.
Trump is desperately trying to re-write history. But the history is so fresh, people will not forget. Joe Biden may not be inspiring. But he's normal. And he possesses what Trump lacks in spades: character.
Politics is unpredictable. The unforeseen could upend the race. But Trump is facing what he abhors the most -- being branded a loser.
Image: Daily Kos
18 comments:
That was a great article and continuing in his self aggrandizing but destructive ways, Trump is now floating the crazy idea of firing Fauci. Of course that would be a highly predictable event but tragically he will "open" (which is really code for go forth and spread as witnessed by the many idiots who trotted off to line the pockets of the rich hustlers in Florida) and seal the fates of many of his supporters. The whole spectacle has become so grotesque to watch that it causes a pit in my stomach. BC Waterboy
I certainly hope Martin is right, Owen, but the manifest foolishness of so many Americans since Trump captured the White House makes me less than confident about his prognostication.
I agree, waterboy. It's all monstrously depressing. I understand that one of Trump's friends has just died of the virus. I wonder if that will make an impression on the man.
The number of fools is astonishing, Lorne. I noted over the weekend that pastors held services in their churches. Presumably, those who have been "washed in the blood of the lamb" will be protected -- like the Israelites at Passover.
Meaning no disrespect to Mr. Martin, I am waiting for Michael Moore's prediction and hoping it's the right one. Does Trump actually have any friends? Oh yeah ,there is Boris and he has been cured. Hallelujah ,it's a miracle!
One has to wonder if Boris has learned anything from his experience, zoombats.
I often agree with Lawrence Martin’s viewpoint but not on this prediction. No doubt Trump has been touting the performance of the American economy under his presidency. “How’s your 401K doing these days?” All this before the crisis. Now he is pushing for an early reopening of US businesses. So he clearly sees the economy as important to his chances. Notice too he is getting some important support for this idea as many others are now echoing this view, which they hope will get the economy on track again. A good thing for him and Republicans in general, re the election. Of course, this precocious resumption could ultimately cause many more deaths so that could prove to be a risky course of action for Trump as well. So, looking at the economic realities ahead, one can understand Mr. Martin’s thinking.
However, Trump is not a mere Bush, père or fils. Even with all the problems Covid 19 Is causing in the US, the vast majority of “news” in America today is still about Trump, be it good or bad. Also, neither Bush had the cult following Trump has. That bunch still love him bigly and will turn out in November, regardless. Also, Biden, according to many, is not perceived as a strong candidate. Trump and his team will exploit that to the max, just as he they did with his Republican rivals in the primaries in 2016. Even among Democrats, Biden’s support among progressives is weak, at best. His stands on the Iraq war, free tuition, Social Security and Medicare for all will deter many from voting for him. Good luck getting support from Bernie Bros. now that Sanders has dropped out. Biden’s views on abortion and other similar social issues will not get Evangelicals, fundamentalists, Catholics (he was refused Holy Eucharist recently) to support him instead of Trump. Plus, Fox News and talk radio (Limbaugh et al) will be solidly behind Trump. There is nothing comparable on the left. These hate mongers are very adept at manipulating the public. Right up there with religious preachers whose love for Trump runs very deep. Lastly, Trump is a masterful con man and has a proven record of success in the art. “I take no responsibility at all”. It is amazing but so many just believe him, no matter how provably untrue his statements might be.
I feel Martin’s error here is that he is using reason, logic, facts to support his opinion. A common mistake among thinking people when dealing with the Trump phenomenon. However, different criteria are at play when Trump is involved. It’s been like this since he announced his candidacy. The old rules simply don’t apply to him.
So, sadly, despite the appeal of Mr. Martin’s views, I fear the world is in line for four more years of Trumpomania. Will we, in a couple of years, look back fondly on this pandemic as “the good old days”? Mac
I understand your reluctance to agree with Martin, Mac. Trump has told his followers, "Don't believe what you hear or see. Believe me." At some point, however, as the death count mounts -- and takes away family members -- it's going to be hard for even Trump's loonies to believe what he says.
Some facts are unassailable.. Here's one.. and plenty more lined up..
.. 'Something' Trump touched.. DIED .. That's his 'Life Brand'
Take your pick.. of what 'something' is.. but the statement is undeniable. Sure, some may quibble or fluff it off as hyperbole, and they're welcome to their opinion or argument. To describe Trump as a 'walking dead man' in some political context seems feeble. Looking down the road to Infamy for the Supreme Medical Expert of Planet Earth I can see The State of New York not allowing him entry.. as well as the city. I can see his immediate family asked to please leave, for their own safety and that of the citizenry. A Trump election 'rally' in New York State ? Surely you jest ! Measure the reality of such a grotesque & disgusting insult.. versus the minor league disaster of Charlottesville.. no comparison..
Trump resembles a possessed D Grade evil demon. Those stumbling down the same road & defending him are pitiful anachronisms.. Barr, Hannity, McConnell must think they too 'will take it with them' .. off on their bizarro Rapture Ride with their sedicious, parasitic President. Come come.. any way you look at these folks its obvious they are insane people who for some unexplainable reason are allowed to pretend they are or think they are.. sane !! Is that not the current reality ?? Somehow, that's how far America has descended into some nightmare of collective madness. Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave.. ?? The President killed masses of American people on behalf of his election possibilities. Any fool can see what comes next. I see the entire administration gradually retreating and enclaving.. hiding out.. just like Hitler's war criminals.. the problem is.. where to hide ? Monaco ? Russia ? Florida ? The world has shrunk.. and there really is no place to hide.. when you stink of death
Eventually, truth will catch up with these folks, sal. But, until it does, there will be death and destruction on a massive scale.
Mac's analysis is spot on. One factor he missed is Republican ratfuckery, which will be at an all-time high. Biden is a deeply flawed candidate with years of gaffes and bad decisions to draw on. As the former Senator for MasterCard, he's tied tightly to the hated banks. His treatment of Anita Hill during the Clarence Thomas confirmation still rankles women. He's got a sexual assault allegation against him by a former staffer. And he's old, even older than Trump who currently is the oldest president ever elected.
Sure, Dems will turn out to get rid of Trump, but Biden is far from innovative and inspiring. Trump, Fox and hate radio will make mincemeat of him. He won't take the gloves off because he still thinks he can order up mint juleps and work with moderate Republicans - an extinct species!
All of this will hurt voter turnout for the Dems, and GOP vote suppression will be Jim Crow-like. The Republicans on the US Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act. They saw nothing wrong with forcing in-person voting on Wisconsin during a pandemic. They had no problem with Milwaukee going from 108 polling stations to 5, for a population of 600,000! I expect to see this sort of thing in every GOP controlled state, and it will be completely legal.
I figure Trump has a better than even chance of re-election. Biden is a terrible candidate - only Gabbard or Williamson would have been worse. And the Trump cult will turn up at the polls like zombies.
Cap
I agree that Trump's loonies will show up, Cap. The big question is: How many voters who refused to vote for Hilary will show up for Biden? Remember, even as they stayed home, Hilary won the popular vote by three million.
Trump is bad shit crazy, in my opinion. His performance today was way over the top. trying to re write history, but that is only easily done if none of the participants weren't around. Trump is trying to re write history or his place in if from a few months ago. He is actually out of control. When challenged to day by reporters, it was hard to believe this was the president of the U.S.A. or even a mayor of a small town.
Firing Dr. F. was started by a group of anti vaccers. I suspect Trump may have re tweeted the fire Dr. F as a signal to them. If he is to fire Dr. F. he will have turned the corner. It was fun to see one of the major news station play videos of both Bushes praising Dr. F. back in the day.
The Gov, have banded together to get things done. They clearly understand nothing will be forth coming from the feds except more abuse. Trump wants to open the economy, but how will he force people to go back to work who are unwilling to do so. They may hate not having money, but they sure don't want to die. Trump's threat to the Gov. was interesting. He told the public they'd have to go along with what he wants, they need what he has, but he hasn't given them anything, so they don't expect he is going to give them anything anyhow. trump is a liar, he can not be trusted. Not only is trump looking like an idiot in his own country, but he is dragging the country down with him. The EU has nothing but distain for him. so the president of Brazil thinks he's a great guy, well the president of Brazil is an idiot also.
Beyond the $1,200 American are going to get not much has been done for them. corporations of course, but As the Central texas Food bank reported yesterday they have seen a 200% up tick in demand for services. Some states require people to line up at 11 p.m. the night before in their cars to be tested for the virus. Once people do not pay their rent the evictions will start and the mortgage defaults begin, people will be out in the street and not a few hundred thousand, but possibily millions. The dying has not stopped yet and its the highest rate in the world. body bags are never great when you are running for re election.
As to what Biden may or may not have done, it pales in comparison to what ever we know Trump has done. All biden has to do is pick a good running mate and he should win. Yes there will be rat fuckery, but one of the original rat fuckers is dead, one is in jail and I do believe Stone if not there, is on his way. Now there are the lesser rat fuckers but theyère just not that smart as the original 3. During an election you can never tell what comes out in the wash and a great deal will come out about trump. Just the ads against trump may be enough to sink him. In his anger and wish for revenge he will put his foot it in and that will be all they wrote.
I hope you're right, e.a.f.
Unfortunately I think that cap (anonymous @ 4:46) is probably right, Biden is a deeply flawed candidate with years of gaffes and bad decisions to draw on....Trump, Fox and hate radio will make mincemeat of him.
Biden has a less-than-stellar record when you start to look at it and he looks to be wide open on accusations of blatant corruption in Ukraine plus a long history of lies about his legislative history.
There's also the slight problem that Biden appears to be showing fairly serious symptoms of dementia. I'm not sure that his handlers can keep him pointed in the right direction even in a news conference let alone a debate to show the voters a coherent, functioning, candidate.
I realized that Trump is not better, e.a.f is right, Trump is bad shit crazy, but he's a much better mudslinger and will have the support of all types of right-wing mainstream and social media that will spread any and all lies possible, though in Biden's case, actual lies may be redundant.
Given a really top-notch vice-presidential running mate, he might have a slim chance but seeing how efficiently the Democratic National Committee is it selecting candidates I would not be too hopeful.
Time will tell, jrk. One thing is certain. If Trump is re-elected, the United States is doomed.
Many fundamental "Christians" think death doesn't matter because they will go to heaven and it doesn't matter what happens to the others. I find them cold blooded in the extreme and I've had the bad luck to meet a few. So what's a few million corona virus deaths? Nothing a good Christian need worry about.
This is all very convenient to someone like Trump. It seems he decided early on to let the virus "wash over" America, ie, let die whoever was going to die, do it fast, do it cheap, shut up about it and get back to normal life as fast as possible. It took a while for Dr Fauci to understand what Trump meant by "washing over". I heard he was horrified then. He has certainly made some sort of Faustian bargain with the devil to appear with Trump in public and back him up, at least, with silence. Interesting pair.
I suspect that Fauci deeply regrets his unfortunate connection to Trump, ffd.
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