COVID numbers are surging across Canada. But some countries have beaten COVID. Andrew Nikiforuk writes:
Taiwan, a nation of 24 million, moved quickly with testing, tracing, masks and other interventions to quash the virus. Because it acted rapidly, it didn’t require lockdowns.
After imposing a severe lockdown, New Zealand decided to take advantage of plummeting case rates and aimed for elimination. When the virus reappeared in August due to a mysterious family cluster, the country quickly restored zero transmission with a targeted lockdown and mandatory masks. Within three weeks, New Zealanders were again living with fewer restrictions than most Canadians.
Inspired by New Zealand’s success, Australia went for zero transmission too. When a major outbreak erupted in the state of Victoria in August — 700 cases a day mostly in Melbourne — the nation kept the virus contained. Within 110 days, it achieved zero transmission with a disciplined lockdown that included a night curfew. (Yes, suicides and mental health issues did go up during that lockdown.)
And, in Canada, the Maritimes have done much better than other parts of the country in the fight against the virus. Why? Because all of these jurisdictions adopted a "Go For Zero" strategy:
Starting with a national commitment, it would apply the measures that work. Tight border controls and effective quarantines; rigorous test, trace and isolate protocols with quarantine hotels; schools with proper risk measures including fewer students in a room; mandatory masking; engaged citizens.
The key is that it has to be a national strategy -- and, in Canada, health is a provincial responsibility. Despite that, we almost applied such a strategy:
For a brief window of time, much of Canada stood well poised to get to zero. Last summer the provinces of B.C., Manitoba and Saskatchewan, representing 23 per cent of Canada’s territory and 20 per cent of its population, nearly achieved no COVID spread.
But these provinces didn’t go the extra distance. And because Canada lacks a national policy mandating Go for Zero measures, each province — except for Atlantic Canada and the North, felt pressure to emulate others who were coasting. Now we are reaping the results.
But it would be a mistake to ignore how close those three provinces came to proving Go for Zero could work.
Vancouver Island, for instance, has so low a transmission rate it could have become another New Zealand had it seized the moment.
As is always the case, it's really difficult to get all of us to row in the same direction.
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16 comments:
Good leadership is what gets people rowing in the same direction. The successful jurisdictions all disdained half-measures and prioritized tackled the health crisis above other considerations. People got the message and followed suit.
We can no longer rely on the excuse that we're different from the Asian countries that have successfully handled the Covid crisis. Australia and New Zealand share Canada's British heritage, and have similar parliamentary governments. Parts of Australia weathered a six-week lockdown to get viral spread under control. The Atlantic provinces are, of course, part of Canada and have dealt with severe travel restrictions.
All these jurisdictions succeeded where Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and other provinces have failed. Turns out that "Open for Business" isn't a great slogan in a pandemic.
Cap
In these times, Cap, we have to have the courage to declare that money does not take precedence over the common good.
Note that all the places cited that were able to reduce/eliminate Covid19 are islands, or in the case of the Maritimes, essentially made themselves an island. It is much easier to control people coming and going on an island. You do a sharp, short lockdown and heavily restrict the movement of people, and you are mostly done. Maybe there are lessons to be learned.
I hit the grocery store about once a week. The island was doing really well until tourist season in June-August. Then every resort and campground was swamped with visitors, many of whom were drawn by the idea of a safe place for a summer holiday.
Many locals noticed a behavioural shift. Far fewer people were wearing masks. Today a majority, perhaps 80%, are back to donning masks but that still leaves that one out of five who refuse. We have our share of conspiracy nuts but they tend to live in our smaller, remote communities - think Deliverance.
I wish we had an isolation option for these people. Find a place where they can congregate, do as they please but without subjecting the rest of the population to the consequences of their intransigence. Plague villages, akin to leper colonies. Lepers had little to no choice in the disease they contracted. Covidiots consider that choice an expression of their rights and freedom. It's hard to have sympathy for their plight.
The regional health authorities provide regular data that goes into the province's "Covid-19 Dashboard." The data has two categories that distinguishes those admitted to hospital and those in ICU. The island health authority serves a population of some 870,000, in the same ballpark as Nova Scotia or New Brunswick. At the moment there are two in ICU and none in general hospital wards. Vancouver and the Fraser Valley are the provincial hotspots.
Province-wide, the virus is impacting people in their 20s and 30s far more than other age groups. That suggests older people are more conscientious in preventative measures. You don't see a lot of geezers at Covid parties.
Given the encouraging reports from Pfizer and Moderna, effective vaccines could roll out within four to six months. That's great but then we'll have to sort out how to deal with the anti-vaxxers.
There are most certainly lessons to be learned, Gordie. Public health measures cause inconvenience and dislocation. But the sooner you act, the better the outcome.
And there will be anti-vaxxers, Mound. If they wish to die, that's their choice. But they have no right to take others -- who wish to live -- with them.
Covid cases are like mice. If you see one mouse, you know you have a lot more.
So there is no such thing as "only" one case. You have to take even a single case seriously. This strategy has proven its worth in Taiwan and New Zealand. Whereas we seem to think a small number of cases, as we had this summer, equals no cases.
We simply have not taken the virus seriously, ffd. We have not acknowledged how deadly it is.
I love the "We have not acknowleged how deadly it is" line. It's true. Who's the "We" in reality? Provincial small-minded ideological Conservative premiers. Legault, Ford, Palliser, Moe and kenney. A more clueless lot of dopes it would be hard to imagine unless you include Republican US state governors on the list, or Boris. Incompetents, the lot of them. Provincial politics seems to attract small-minded drones, leading from behind on Twitter trends, if they go so far as that. Big jobs for cronies, privatize public assets on the cheap, and screw the public describes Cons to a tee.
I live in Nova Scotia, where Covid is imported by "people who travelled outside the Atlantic Bubble" or are on a four week rotation from Alberta's tarsands and oilfields. Thus far, we've kept a lid on it, but it wouldn't take much to blow things apart, any more than it would on Vancouver Island.
Australia and New Zealand operate government-run quarantine facilities for newly-landed visitors or business returnees. No running out for a pack of smokes and a beer in your two week isolation. Well, it is that way now. When the Melbourne super lockdown first occurred a few months ago, guards were bribed to let inmates out to wander and spread. When that was finally discovered, the guards got the boot. You can't have half-way measures or rely on IDIOTs without a clue if you're serious about the virus.
But that's exactly what Canada has as provincial premiers from Quebec West, idiots, and BC doesn't have mask laws like we do here in NS. Why, who the hell knows?
This is serious sh!t being handled by off-the-cuff complete dopes convinced they're geniuses. Legault shows some slight signs of having a clue, but I wouldn't give the rest of my hit parade premiers two cents to do the right thing. They're all angry Cons, interrupted in their plans to loot the country. Imagine if Scheer had been PM. We'd have gone t*ts up by now. Even Sweden these past couple of weeks have admitted their laissez-faire approach to Covid-19 was a bust. At least they have the balls to admit it.
As you can no doubt tell, I'm angry. Mound pointed out before the first lockdown in March that these viruses come in waves. First I read of it anywhere, and I thank him foe enlightening me early. Do you think any of these illiterate Con premiers took any notice of the facts? No sir. Not a single one of them, even though pundits continually harped all summer long on the likelihood of a second wave this fall. So why shouldn't I be angry at their gross negligence driven by ideology? Canada has certainly not been anywhere near the top in handling the virus, although I have to say the Feds at least tried. Their advice fell for the most part on deaf ears. And burnt up $300 billion for nothing because of these tone-deaf charlatan Con provincial premiers.
BM
For the premiers you mentioned, BM, getting the economy back to "normal" was always their first priority. The virus was never first on their list.
But that's exactly what Canada has as provincial premiers from Quebec West, idiots, and BC doesn't have mask laws like we do here in NS. Why, who the hell knows?.........
BC has long been known as La La Land and for obvious reasons.
Bonnie Henry has tried to appeal to the better nature of British Columbians which worked wonderfully for a while but is now in jeopardy.
Here in BC as in Nova Scotia we should shut our borders especially to Alberta as we did with the US.
As a last bastion of defence we should isolate ourselves here on Vancouver Island.
John Horgan led the fight to close the US border; time for him to reassert his authority.
Closing the borders may not be enough.
We have to consider the actions of ethnic groups that have admirably clung to family values.
These values are out of touch with today's realities and must be curbed.
TB
I wonder why in BC most businesses have mask requirements but seem reluctant to tell customers to wear a mask or leave the premises.If someone came in in the summer, no shirt no shoes no service, they would likely get the bum's rush immediately. The business managers have to grow a pair and demand people not complying are not welcome. I also see lots of seniors not complying and wonder why they don't bother complying. It's a mystery to me.
There's going to be friction between premiers, TB. The Atlantic premiers have worked remarkably well together. But not all the premiers are capable of that kind of coordination.
It's definitely a mystery, Terry -- simply because this is a matter of self-interest.
Read an interesting article about N.Z. recently and their willingness to follow the rules as set out by their government. The over whelming factor: THEY TRUST THEIR GOVERNMENT.
another country which is doing well is Vietnam. When COVID arrived, they went into lock down and reinstituted their old communist party organizational of having a "watch" person on every block. It may not have been democratic then but it sure is saving their asses now.
Many people have been raised in an entitled atmosphere and believe the rules don't apply to them, they're special. then you have the ones who believe the government doesn't have the right to order them around.
Atlantic Canada did well because they kept outsiders out. works every time. its one of the reasons Vancouver island doesn't have as high a rate of COVID as the lower mainland--greater Vancouver. You need a ferry to get here.
In answer to TErry, small business owners don't want to get into a fight with a customer. Many of these small shops are owned by women and they just can't enforce the rule. Telling some one to get out of their shop could result in an assault or destruction of their property. You should some of the road rage we have in Greater Vancouver. In Nanaimo, B.C., today, I had to go out and noticed everyone was wearing a mask. They however still don't get it, when stores and malls, have directional signs to stay in your "lane". Don't know what is the matter with them, but I make sure to stay a long way away from others.
People simply don't think they're going to get the virus. That is something which happens to other people. They're all special and 'special" people don't get this virus. Its about all I can come up with.
so some one at work has COVID and doesn't know it. Comes into contact with a co worker, who goes home to their spousal unit, who works with disabled people. Now every one is waiting. The spousal unit person has been very careful in following all protocols, but there they are waiting to see if they caught anything and if they did, did they pass it on to their clients.
In my opinion, mask wearing needs to be mandated in all work places and all shops, malls, etc. This disease isn't going away and unlike AIDS, there isn't a condom for that. When I look back at AIDS, even when people knew how it was transmitted, many still didn't use condoms. They died. It just the nature of the human animal at some level.
I agree, e.a.f. Wearing masks must be mandated. It would be nice if everyone would do it on their own. Obviously, they won't -- and don't.
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