Paul Krugman writes that the news is remarkably good:
You may have heard about the good economic news. Labor force participation — the share of adults in today’s work force — is actually slightly higher than the Congressional Budget Office predicted before the pandemic. Measures of underlying inflation have fallen more or less back to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target even though unemployment is near a 50-year low. Adjusted for inflation, most workers’ wages have gone up.
For some reason I’ve heard less about the crime news, but it’s also remarkably good. F.B.I. data shows that violent crime has subsided: It’s already back to 2019 levels and appears to be falling further. Homicides probably aren’t quite back to 2019 levels, but they’re plummeting.
Overall both our economy and our society are in far better shape at this point than most people would have predicted in the early days of the pandemic — or than most Americans are willing to admit.
For if America’s resilience in the face of the pandemic shock has been remarkable, so has the pessimism of the public.
So why hasn't the public got the memo?
As Mark Twain wrote, "A little lie can travel half way 'round the world while Truth is still lacing up her boots."
These days there is a bull market in lies.
Image: X.com
12 comments:
These days it's hard to tell what's a lie and what isn't. Krugman says that labour force participation is slightly higher than what the CBO predicted before the pandemic. So, is that good or not? Well, the graph shows labour force participation flat at about 63% from 2013 to 2019. As expected, it plummets in 2020, and has now recovered back to the anemic levels of 2019. So, that's not good if you remember it being at 66% until 2009.
Krugman then says that adjusted for inflation, most workers wages have gone up. Yes, wage growth is currently outpacing inflation, but have workers recovered what they lost from spring 2021 to Jan 2023, when inflation growth outpaced wages? Especially when the US prime rate is at 8.5% compared to the 3.25% it was at two years ago. If mortgage and borrowing rates are rising faster than wages, workers will still feel they're falling behind.
And if violent crime is back down to Trump-era levels, that means for most the Biden era it was higher. Even though a president's policies normally have little effect on crime rates, what do you think voters will remember in November?
If things were as rosy for the average American as Krugman claims, there's no way Biden would be polling so far below a man as crooked and unfit for office as Trump. People may be working, but if they're working multiple increasingly crappy jobs to make ends meet, they'll be looking for someone to blame. Trump's antics are not growing his base, so I still think Biden's likely to win in November, but much will depend on voter turnout.
Trump got in by a fluke the last time, Cap. He could do it again.
"by a fluke"
The fluke is actually a twisted, corrupted process laid bare in 2000 Bush/Gore.
The lack of will to fix the system after that outcome virtually guarantees more of these flukes.
Oh, and while he is not the ogre that tRump is, Biden clearly sucks and people know it.
In these so-called democracies, we get the gov't we deserve!
We always get the government we deserve, PoV.
Frankly, I think we deserve better.
We will only get better, Toby, when we demand it.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/12/31/i-dont-care-who-wins-the-us-presidential-election
It's a case of the lesser evil, PoV. There clearly is a lesser evil.
It’s quite amazing how the right can seemingly smear a politician, and have that spread into the general population. And in our electoral gift to the south, only 400,000 votes can decide the presidency, with the loser winning the total vote by millions. Sad.
Something is most assuredly out of joint, William.
"There clearly is a lesser evil."
Agreed. If you are an American. Or Canadian.
But from the PoV of the rest of the world, I am afraid it's tweedled-dee/tweedled-dumber...
The smaller nations have always been forced to work out something with the larger nations, PoV.
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