Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Who Would Replace Him?


There's lots of talk these days about Justin Trudeau resigning. Michael Harris writes:

With Trudeau having notched three electoral victories since 2015, nobody is going to push him out — at least not yet. After all, with a handsome face and a famous name, he took the Liberals from political oblivion to a majority government in 2015. But confronted with his own deepening unpopularity, will Trudeau himself step down?

That is what the summer of 2024 is all about — whether Trudeau will take a walk in the sand, as his father famously took one in the snow before resigning. Will Justin decide that for the good of the party, it’s time to make room for a new leader?
There is every reason for the PM to feel conflicted. Trudeau prides himself on his toughness. Remember how everyone thought that Sen. Patrick Brazeau would knock the stuffing out of him in their boxing match? It would be personally difficult for Trudeau to walk away from a fight with a man for whom he has so little respect, a man whose values mirror those of Stephen Harper.

There is precedent for resigning for the good of the party:

After nine years in power, for the good of that same party, all signs point to the wisdom of a Trudeau resignation sometime this year. That way, the new PM would have a chance to showcase his abilities before heading into an election in 2025.

The Liberal house is on fire, and the task at hand is to save as much of the furniture as possible. Trudeau must decide if he is the one to do that at a time when he personally trails both Poilievre and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in the polls.

The bottom line here? Justin Trudeau is not nearly as bad as his detractors claim, often in personal and reprehensible ways. But politics is not Sunday school. Perception, not reality, governs the game. Messaging and narratives, rather than the facts, ultimately carry the day.

Once the electorate sours on a leader, as the evidence shows it has on Trudeau, all faults are amplified and all accomplishments largely ignored. We have all but reached the anybody-but-Trudeau point in national politics, thanks to a relentless personal attack on the PM that goes well beyond policy differences and politics.

Who would replace him? Dominic Leblanc's and Mark Carney's names are being bruited about. But nothing will happen until Trudeau resigns.

Image: CTV News

10 comments:

lungta said...

Even " a person to be named at a later date" would work
If Justin Trudeaus ridiculous .......(fill in the blank) was removed from the Con hate speech /'lil pp proclamations there would be about zero Con talking points remaining
Tho a resulting Con win will see the reversal of 50 years of progress.

Owen Gray said...

Poilievre is rerunning Trump's American Carnage speech, lungta. He calls it "everything's broken."

Northern PoV said...

I believe that Canadians have pandemic-fatigue and are sick of the leader that led them through it with daily press conferences.

And CSIS and the corporate-media/polling companies have taken advantage of that.

Owen Gray said...

Post-pandemic, we are in a very sour mood, PoV.

Anonymous said...

From the other direction, I'm stunned by otherwise intelligent people I know who like what they hear from Poilievre. They have swallowed Poilievre's blame Trudeau hatred hook, line and sinker. Good, bad or otherwise, Trudeau has to go. When he does, Poilievre will transfer the hate to the new Liberal leader and my friends will go with him. Trumpism has definitely crossed the border.

Owen Gray said...

Indeed, Anon, Trumpism has migrated north. Please initial your next comment.

Northern PoV said...

hey Anon

If "my friends will go with him", then in that case "Trudeau has to go" makes less sense!

Alas, like some medieval plague, we get a national CON gov't once in a generation it seems. Just our bad luck (and civic-laziness) that we get stuck with Lil'PP when it the CON's turn.


Owen Gray said...

Poilievre will lead the most extreme government we've had, PoV.

Toby said...

Owen, I'm the Anon above. I entered Toby but somehow it disappeared. Computer magic.

@Northern PoV said... hey Anon

If "my friends will go with him", then in that case "Trudeau has to go" makes less sense!

Good point.

Owen Gray said...

I'm glad to know it was you, Toby. And I agree.