Canadians aren't impressed by their political leaders. Michael Harris writes:
Federal politics has entered a “none-of-the-above” phase.
The same polls that show Justin Trudeau taking his party over the electoral cliff if he remains leader also show something else of importance. Canadians are deeply unimpressed with the current crop of federal leaders.
The latest Angus Reid poll nicely captures Trudeau’s emphatic unpopularity, but also the striking unpopularity of his rivals. The prime minister is viewed favourably by just 28 per cent of respondents in the Angus Reid poll, and unfavourably by a whopping 67 per cent.
The Conservative Party has a commanding 20-point lead over the Liberals amongst decided voters, a staggering, double-digit lead they have had for months.
But according to other key findings in the poll, 50 per cent of respondents had an unfavourable view of Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh.
That makes predicting what will happen in the next election difficult:
While most observers have counted Trudeau out, based on persistent documentary evidence, [Nick Nanos] came up with another number that puts the Conservative “juggernaut” factor in an intriguing context.
“Although the Conservatives enjoy a comfortable advantage in vote intentions, their pool of accessible voters—that is, the proportion of Canadians who are open to voting Conservative—is not much larger (45 per cent) than the group of voters accessible to the Liberals (43 per cent).”
In other words, the next election will not necessarily be decided by today’s polls, but by tomorrow’s, next week’s, next month’s, and next year’s political gamesmanship. And happenstance.
Things can change radically over a short period. Like climate change, political change can be swift and very consequential.
Image: CTV Nrews
10 comments:
PMs in office beyond two terms seem to lose their way. I really think we would benefit from a two-term limit on PMs. This could even be an informal arrangement, as it was for US presidents for 150 years. A term limit would force political parties to develop bench-strength among ministers and lead to a new outlook every decade or so. In my view, the Libs would have benefitted from a new leader going into the last election.
Now it's too late, and JT seems determined to take his party back to the wilderness years after Chretien. The only thing standing between the Libs and a wipeout is PP's deep unpopularity.
Powe is addictive, Cap. And leaders seem to view their tenure as vital to the nation.
Cap: I do not believe term limits would work or belong in a Parliamentary system.
It is not so much that multi-term gov'ts 'lose their way'. Rather, they 'wear out their welcome', especially in the wacko-24hr-breaking news environment we have created. And, we lazy, somnolent voters opt for the 'other' brand (blue or red). Hence, Harper's capture of the blue brand being so consequential.
Jr. lost his way, way back in the first term with the disastrous broken promises on TMX and voting reform. He has been limping politically ever since and 'pandemic fatigue' along with the regular 'wear out their welcome' fatigue has given the CONs their lead, even if we can't stand the execrable Lil'PP.
Wise words from our host:
"In other words, the next election will not necessarily be decided by today’s polls, but by tomorrow’s, next week’s, next month’s, and next year’s political gamesmanship. And happenstance. Things can change radically over a short period. Like climate change, political change can be swift and very consequential."
or
"Events my dear boy. Events"
The "hot" and arguably most accurate models of catastrophic anthropomorphic climate change are catastrophic with violent , unpredictable and unexpected results ..
"Easy rider is a true story
Easy rider isn't easy to take..."
Chronicles of Riddick ...."What would be the odds of that the odds of that?"
The Dragon King now rules. No matter the history or input, results will be shocking and seemingly random.
We're in for a rough ride, lungta.
Events always derail the plans of mice and men, PoV.
I do no like the idea of tem limits, especially in a Westminster-style parliamentary system. They are just not designed to work that way and, besides probably means the entire political system is so messed up it needs much more reform than just term limits. We have a built-in control mechanism called a "vote of non-confidence". The chace of it being used if the governing party has a decent majority is vanishing slim but any PM needs to keep it in the back of their mind. A full-blown caucus revolt could happen.
Our neighbour to the south seems to be a good example of this. They have, in essence, designed a two party system that is often formally legislated! Getting a new party up and running is next to impossible. See Jill Stein or RFK Jr. I tend to be reminded of the Institutional Revolutionary Party in Mexico.
Besides it Canada, it would be difficult to legislate a term limit on a PM when, as far as I cas see, there is no mention of the office of the prime minister in our constitutional documents. The PM exists as part of our unwritten ,customary tradition.
So much of our system is based on custom, not law, jrk.
Perhaps there is some kind of cosmic balancing act going on?
The great news about Julian Assange being freed ...
was quickly followed by the Oilers loss and a Lil'PP victory in downtown Toronto.
It's too early for me to see a pattern, PoV. I may take a while to understand what's going on.
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