In Ontario, we're living in a make-believe world. Bruce Arthur writes:
About a month after the province announced masking was no longer mandatory, Omicron is everywhere. With testing limited and hobbled, wastewater data shows there is more COVID in circulation than there was at the peak of the January Omicron wave. According to Dr. Peter Jüni, the scientific director of the province’s independent volunteer science table, Ontario is seeing an estimated 100,000 COVID infections per day right now, give or take. That number will continue to grow. But what happens next is hard to say.
“It’s very difficult to tell right now,” said Jüni. “We’re not completely sure what the amount of immunity we have in the population, how much waning (of immunity) is happening right now.
“The (last Omicron) wave was broken — it was not the natural behaviour of the wave. Natural behaviour of the wave would have resulted in probably at least twice as many people in the hospital at the peak. So the question is now will (this wave) peak in a week from now, a bit earlier, or only two weeks from now. And this makes a tremendous difference.”
The range of realistic outcomes has shifted upwards, though. Jüni says the worst-case scenario — a two-week rise or so — could see a concurrent hospitalization burden similar to the last wave, which peaked just over 4,000. Human behaviour, as ever, will make a difference, and there are some signals in recent wastewater data that could indicate potential deceleration, which is probably behaviour-based.
But giving permission to doff masks in shared spaces was a powerful signal of more than permission — it was a signal from government that it is safe to do so, that you have no responsibility to protect others, that a mask is only a personal decision, with no other complications. Some people kept masks on, and lots didn’t. People are tired of the pandemic — literally everyone, at this point — and the knock-on effects of that are an incredible behavioural driver, here and in so many countries. Masks don’t solve everything. But they help, and societally they cost almost nothing.
The bottom line? When Doug Ford speaks, things get worse.
Image: CUPE Ontario
