Andrew Nikiforuk writes that our approach to fighting COVID 19 has been all wrong:
Last January, one strain of this novel virus began its assured global conquest, and since then our leaders have hardly learned a goddamn thing.
The old COVID-19 doubled its numbers every 40 days under a particular set of restrictions; under the same conditions, the variants double every 10 days. That means they can outrun any vaccination campaign.
That means if you haven’t eliminated — or almost eliminated — cases in your region, you are going to learn the meaning of grief.
These highly-contagious variants have emerged in jurisdictions with high infection rates: the U.K., Brazil, South Africa and California. They became global tourists months ago, before you read about them.
To illustrate it, British mathematician Adam Kucharski recently compared a virus mutation that was 50 per cent more deadly with one that increased transmission by 50 per cent.
With a reproduction rate of about 1.1 and a death rate of 0.8 per cent, current strains of COVID-19 now deliver 129 deaths per 10,000 infections.
A virus that is 50 per cent more lethal will kill 193 people in a month. A variant that is more transmissible wins the game with 978 deaths in just one month.
Some countries got it right. They refused to take half measures:
COVID-19 should have taught us one glaring lesson by now: If you do not stamp out this virus, the shapeshifter will come back to defeat you.
New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, Iceland and Taiwan got it right. They went to zero and eliminated the virus. Atlantic Canada and the North got it right, too.
Theirs was a really tough approach. And it worked. But in Canada's two largest provinces we were weak-kneed:
Now here is the problem: The virus is evolving while our reactive response is devolving out of neglect, incompetence and fatalism.
In many parts of Canada, our vaccine programs are being administered improperly.
In Quebec, the authorities are not following proper schedules. If you don’t follow the schedules, the vaccine won’t work very well. That means Quebec has created an experimental population of half-vaccinated individuals who can support viral evolution.
As the variants rapidly move through the country, politicians are doing what they did last spring — reacting instead of getting ahead of the virus.
We've got trouble -- big trouble.
Image: CNN































