The countries which fought on the United Nations side of the Korean War are meeting in Vancouver. China, Russia -- and North Korea -- won't be there. The United States is pushing for more sanctions. But, Andrew Coyne writes:
Sanctions . . . will only be as effective as China allows them to be. And while the Chinese have tightened the screws to some degree, they are also likely to oppose any serious attempt to enforce them: for example, by means of “maritime interdiction,” the multinational quasi-blockade that is also up for discussion in Vancouver. North Korea has already denounced the idea as an “act of war,” but China is unlikely to be much happier.
So that leaves accepting the reality of a nuclear North Korea. And what does that mean? It means deterrence:
Surely deterrence can be made to work on the Korean peninsular, as it has these past seven decades in Europe. But to live with a nuclear-armed North Korea is essentially to live with what Hawaii has just endured, in perpetuity. Much effort has been expended to suggest the Kim regime is “rational,” as in non-suicidal. But non-suicidal is not the same as stable, predictable, responsible, prudent or wise. The possibility of error is ever-present. And the consequences of error are catastrophic.
It means, Coyne writes, anti-ballistic missile defence. You thought we were getting rid of nuclear weapons? And Hawaii has just reminded us that, with all those weapons, it's easy to make a mistake.
We are not making progress.
Image: China National News
4 comments:
No, we're not making progress. North Korea is at the wooden wheel stage of nuclear technology but advances in nuclear weapons in both China and Russia in recent years have been astonishing. The US Navy just admitted the rumours of a Russian robotic sub armed with long range missiles of massive yield is a reality. The Russians are also claiming to have an ultra-long range nuclear torpedo that can be fired from a thousand kilometres away to destroy ports such as New York, San Fransisco, Newport News etc. Both Russia and China have a technological lead in fielding hyper-velocity nuclear weapons that render ineffective both detection and interception systems now available.
Why is this going on? It reflects concern for the instability of today's World Order. I read an article from the Proceedings of the US Naval Institute in which some mid-level officer lamented that China is about to surpass the United States and, gosh darn it, it could happen "without a fight." History shows that when a dominant power gets overtaken by a rival, it more often than not is accompanied by a war. It's akin to two male lions fighting over a pride. In this naval officer's mind this relative transition is an act of war, casus belli, that has to be met with military action.
This American attitude is scary. Scarier still is the reported attitude of China's military leadership. There is a deep resentment of the West for China's "Century of Humiliation" and a thirst for revenge. Fortunately Xi has moved to cement political control of China's military but we won't know how real that is until it's tested.
No, we are not making progress.
I've been thinking recently of my pre-teen years, Mound, where we did "duck and cover" drills.
As long as the US continues to invade and destablize, there will be no progress. When your only option is a nuke, what you gonna do?
It doesn't help, Steve, when the leaders of nuclear countries can't think things through.
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