Do They Have A Deal?

It's been a tough slog. But Chantal Hebert writes that the federal government and the provinces appear to be near a ten-year deal on healthcare:

By all indications, peace — in the shape of a 10-year accord — may be about to break out on the federal-provincial health front.

To listen to the first ministers, a deal that would see the federal government increase its contribution to the provinces’ health-care budgets in exchange for more transparency could be struck as early as next month.

At this point, all parties to the discussion have a stake in that optimism translating into a breakthrough. Having collectively raised public expectations of a positive outcome on what has become the number one concern of many Canadians, the first ministers are under self-generated pressure to deliver a viable compromise.

It's in Ottawa's interest to reach a deal:

That starts with the federal Liberals. They are entering a critical political year, anywhere from four to six points behind the Conservatives in voting intentions.

A general election may not be imminent. With Alberta and Manitoba respectively headed to the polls in the spring and the fall, few expect a federal campaign in 2023. But a year in politics is quickly passed.

By this time next January, Trudeau’s third term will have extended beyond the average life of a minority government.

Failing to strike a health-care deal would undoubtedly hurt Liberal prospects for reelection, but that does not mean the striking of one will turn the tide in their favour.

And the provincial healthcare systems are at the breaking point. It's in no one's interest to repeat what happened in 2006:

Ironically, the 2006 election was triggered by the NDP’s decision to join the other parties in a vote of non-confidence in the Liberals over the latter’s health policy.

At the time, NDP Leader Jack Layton argued he had not received enough assurances the Liberal party would fight the increased use of private health care in the provinces.

It’s too early to tell whether history will repeat itself in this Parliament. Jagmeet Singh was making noises along the same lines this week as he urged Trudeau to financially punish provinces such as Ontario for contracting out some surgeries to for-profit private clinics.

Should public pushback against Premier Doug Ford’s move gather momentum, what is now only a veiled threat could yet see the NDP pull out of its pact with the Liberals.

(Before that happens, it may be worth noting that Layton’s decision to turn his back on Martin in late 2005 resulted in the election of a government even less interested in policing private health care and in a decade-long decrease in the NDP’s influence on the federal agenda.)

Layton's decision led to ten years of Stephen Harper. Pierre Poilievre is Harper Redux. It's in everyone's interest to push this deal over the finish line.

Image: Hospital News