Tuesday, December 26, 2023

Will They Convict Him?

Donald Trump doesn't read books. He probably doesn't even read memos. But he does read polls. And the polls are saying something interesting. Norm Eisen, Celinda Lake and Anat Shenker Osorio write:

The negative impact of conviction has emerged in polling as a consistent through line over the past six months nationally and in key states. We are not aware of a poll that offers evidence to the contrary. The swing in this data away from Mr. Trump varies — but in a close election, as 2024 promises to be, any movement can be decisive.

To be clear, we should always be cautious of polls this early in the race posing hypothetical questions, about conviction or anything else. Voters can know only what they think they will think about something that has yet to happen.

Yet we have seen the effect in several national surveys, like a recent Wall Street Journal poll. In a hypothetical matchup between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump leads by four percentage points. But if Mr. Trump is convicted, there is a five-point swing, putting Mr. Biden ahead, 47 percent to 46 percent.

In another new poll by Yahoo News-YouGov, the swing is seven points. In a December New York Times-Siena College poll, almost a third of Republican primary voters believe that Mr. Trump shouldn’t be the party’s nominee if he is convicted even after winning the primary.

The damage to Mr. Trump is even more pronounced when we look at an important subgroup: swing-state voters. In recent CNN polls from Michigan and Georgia, Mr. Trump holds solid leads. The polls don’t report head-to-head numbers if Mr. Trump is convicted, but if he is, 46 percent of voters in Michigan and 47 percent in Georgia agree that he should be disqualified from the presidency.

So much depends on whether the legal system will catch up with Trump in time.

Image: Newsweek


Anonymous said...

It amazes me that so many people would still vote for Trump even if he were convicted of committing a crime. Says something (not very good) about today's society.

Anonymous said...

Sorry...forgot to initial my comment again.


Owen Gray said...

I agree, Anon. Please initial your next comment.

Owen Gray said...

I appreciate the correction, GDN.

Cap said...

Trump's presidential run should have been over the moment a NY jury found that he sexually abused and defamed E. Jean Caroll. But the polls still have him favoured to win next year, proving that a majority of those polled aren't troubled by a raving sex creep in the White House. At least, they're not troubled enough to vote for Biden instead.

Given the economic and job growth during his term, Biden should be polling way higher. I guess the women voters who put Biden over the top in 2019 aren't wild about his plan to reinterpret Title IX to give males unrestricted access to female sports, locker rooms, restrooms, and other female-only spaces. Trump's unlikely to be jailed by November, so maybe a sex pest confined to the White House is better than an open invitation to all female spaces? I can't see any other reason for Biden's lackluster polling against someone as damaged as Trump.

Owen Gray said...

H.L Mencken wrote that nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of those he called "the booboise," Cap. I think he was on to something.

Anonymous said...

The American legal system has the many tools for the rich and running out the clock maybe tRump's ticket.
Lente lente nos eqiu

Owen Gray said...

We forget John Donne's wisdom at our peril, PoV.

jrkrideau said...

I'm sorry but why do we expect anything from a US comment? We have never seen anything yet.

Owen Gray said...

The Washington Post is a reliable publication, jrk. But predicting the future -- when it comes to Trump -- is anything but reliable.