A lot of people are suggesting that Justin Trudeau should go. Martin Regg Cohn writes that Justin should talk to Kathleen Wynne:
Kathleen Wynne has been there, done that — and didn’t go.
After a bitter byelection defeat for the federal Liberals in Toronto–St. Paul’s riding this week, Wynne has been asking herself the same question anew. As premier, she stayed to fight another campaign in 2018, paying a high price in the election defeat that followed.
History also suggests that changing leaders is no panacea for unpopular premiers or prime ministers. After Wynne left, the Ontario Liberals under Steven Del Duca lost badly again to Doug Ford; after Brian Mulroney quit as PM in 1993, his successor Kim Campbell was wiped out; same with Pierre Trudeau’s successor, John Turner, in 1984.
Consider what Wynne is saying:
“I think what’s going to happen now is there’s going to be a lot of internal soul-searching,” Wynne told me. Over the next few weeks, MPs will be “trying to figure out now how to have the tough conversation with him,” because “he’s going to have to make a decision.”
Wynne predicts Liberal MPs across the country will be going door to door this summer hearing their constituents say, “We love you, we hate your leader.”
That’s what happened to Wynne in her last years, and it’s the fate befalling Trudeau now.
“I lived through that and it’s tough.”
MPs have to decide whether they can stand it. And the PM must determine if he can withstand it.
Wynne thought her situation would improve -- and so did Cohn:
Back then, I thought if Wynne could reintroduce herself to voters and somehow rehabilitate her image, she had a better chance to eke out a narrow victory in 2018 than any of the other pretenders to the throne. But as readers know, I’m always wrong — and as it turned out, the downside risk of an unloved leader was a massive loss on voting day.
Similarly, Trudeau may be the best bet for a longshot Liberal minority victory in the federal election due in late 2025. But by virtue of the personal hostility he engenders — akin to Wynne — he could very well be the worst bet if things don’t go their way, leading to even bigger losses.
It's not a simple decision. Stay tuned.
Image: CTV News
15 comments:
From the voter's perspective there are three basic elections: 1. We like what you're doing; 2. Better the devil you know; and 3. Time for a change. We're in the third type.
Barring some massive Con scandal, my sense is that the Libs are done. Anyone replacing Trudeau would be on a career kamikaze mission, see e.g. Campbell, Turner and Prentice. If the Libs are smart they'll let Trudeau take the L.
You could well be right, Cap.
The curse of the "lesser evil" mentality is that it always begets mediocrity or worse. It perpetuates low-grade governance even when sound leadership is most needed. Trudeau hasn't lived up to his promise going back at least to 2016.
In the wake of Harper there was much that needed doing. How did the Libs get this so wrong?
I think Trudeau is an object lesson in what happens when ego and hubris take precedence over the party and the public good, Owen.
Good question, Mound. In the end, governments defeat themselves.
It's a story that keeps repeating itself, Lorne.
If Trudeau had any real understanding of the threat to the public good that blind loyalty to the cult of market-libertarianism poses, and if he cared, he would have started to plan his departure when he got his second minority. Shades of everything that Harper was slip out of Poilievre as soon as he's finished rhyming off the list of his latest slogans. Given his indoctrination from the cradle by the Reformers, we can't expect anything else. It's the only world he knows and he's going to bring it back to the country with a vengeance. The lobbyists won't have to wait because they've already checked out the property and moved in. His young admirers don't understand the real reason that he can't get the smirk off his face.
None of which bodes well for the future, John.
The cry of the electorate " we're bored with you and want a new face " gave us Harper and Ford et al.
And Mikw harris.
Boredom never ends well, rumley.
Addressing Mound's question:
" How did the Libs get this so wrong?"
Let me count the ways .... (been there, done that)
I think Cap may be on to something - change election - If the Lil'PP chimera can last another year?
(For the record I think Freedland would be a disaster while Sean Fraser or Carney might hold some Lib ground.)
Meanwhile another leader who should quit south of the border.
I watched exactly 2 minutes of Joe Biden's dead-man-speaking-word-salad act and 60 seconds of rosy-faced tRump's coherent rebuttal.
We are screwed
I'm not prepared to admit that we're screwed, POV. But, at the moment, the signs are not good.
The Trouble with Trudeau: He thinks he is the Duke of Ottawa and King of Canada. What does PP think he is, the Pope of Canada...question! Anyong
Justin has passed his best before date, Anyong. But Poilievre shouldn't be given any date.
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