Six months ago, Justin Trudeau was poised to win a second majority government. But, in those six months, the political landscape has changed drastically. Jaimie Watt -- a Conservative operative -- writes:
Each new provincial election brings more evidence that the wave of conservative victories across the country is turning into a tsunami. And with that, the inescapable conclusion that the Liberal brand is, if not in crisis, certainly not what it was on Election Day in October, 2015.
Last Tuesday, Prince Edward Islanders not only elected a PC minority government but were sooner ready to consider the Green Party than re-elect Wade MacLauchlan’s governing Liberals.
Trouble for the Liberals all started with Brian Pallister in Manitoba, then Doug Ford, here, in Ontario, François Legault in Quebec, Blaine Higgs in New Brunswick, Jason Kenney in Alberta and now Dennis King in PEI.
Today, 82 per cent of Canadians are governed by conservative parties.
Given Mr. Watt's political roots, it's understandable that he feels optimistic about the future. But he does speak the truth about the fading Liberal brand:
The Liberal ship is floundering. Its cause matters not. The handling of l’affaire SNC-Lavalin. The internecine squabbling. The accumulation of seemingly minor missteps. Or the global rise of populist right-of-centre ideology, the Liberal message is not resonating as it once did.
The three years since the blue tide began have seen the federal Liberal approval rating fall by over 15 per cent. Two-thirds of Canadians now say that Trudeau does not deserve to be re-elected. What’s more, the Liberal’s majority has, through resignations and scandal, become seven members thin.Some may point to the well established pattern of provincial governments of one stripe and federal governments of another:
But the past may well not, any longer, be prologue.
As of today, one poll found that the Conservatives were 20 points ahead in the 905 region. Although it’s worth noting the Ontario race, provincewide, is closer.
The election is six months away. And. as the last six months demonstrate, a lot can happen in six months. But, if Justin is to win the next election, he'll have to pull a rabbit out of his hat.
Image: AllPosters.com
18 comments:
It will be what we have feared for the upcoming election. A classic Canadian lack of choice and a real nose holding situation much like we have had in my recent memory. I always love to hear Con pundits revelling in victory and pointing out the potential "Blue Wave" and the Tsunami that looms on the horizon. I fail to see the Con minority in P.E.I. as something to boast about. My view is that the people of P.E.I. have gotten what they wished for. A government that will have to work together. No one will want to see a vote of non confidence as a result of Partisanship. It is going to be very interesting to watch the Cons learn to eat a lot of humble pie and finally learn a thing about co-operation and not being able to run rough shod over the electorate. How fitting that the Green's nation wide will get to watch this "Fish Bowl" and how public perceives the green balance of power.
The federal election may give us what electoral reform would have given us, zoombats -- coalition government.
I do think the Liberal Party itself is much to blame for its plummeting popularity, Owen. While I supported Trudeau, with some hope, in the last election,it soon became apparent that the Party's propensity for arrogance quickly reappeared; they apparently took nothing from their years in the political wilderness.
If Justin hasn't broken so many campaign promises, he might find himself with more support. If I wanted FPTP elections, billions spent on pipelines, a surveillance state without accountability, support for corporate lawbreaking, privatization of public resources and a laughable climate action plan, I would have voted Con in the last election.
Cap
“Today, 82% of Canadians are governed by conservative parties” ... whether they like it or not!
BTW - in P.E.I., as in Ontario, it was time for a change. However, in P.E.I. the PCs are true PCs. Not the right-wing yahoos that Ontario ended up with.
UU
A coalition may be the best we can hope for Owen, but will it lead to cooperation or confusion is the question. I suspect the latter or worse!
Arrogance is a perennial Liberal problem, Lorne. But since Harper's takeover of the Conservative Party, arrogance has also found a home there. We need to have a third party which serves as a check on the arrogance of both parties.
The anger with Trudeau is palbable, Cap. But, if the Conservatives replace the Liberals, we'll get more of the same -- with an edge.
I hope the Islanders are truly progessive, UU. I was beginning to think that Progressive Conservatives were extinct.
Having a reformatory government in Ontario may not be good for Sheer. Ford and Kenny are both capable of wearing out their welcome quickly. In Quebec, the government may be right of centre but the CPC is nowhere provincially in danger federally. Bernier is doing his best to attract Sheer's bozos.
I was considering returning to the Liberal fold in 2016 when I hoped Trudeau's promises were genuine. They weren't, I'm not, and the Green Party is my home. Those who say that's a vote for Scheer are beating a dead horse. That's been used to guilt us in election after election and the guilt after strategic voting is lasting.
It's possible, rumley, that Maxime could bleed off enough votes to deny Scheer the crown.
That's the big question, Rural. Coalitions only work, if the leaders of the parties know how to navigate within them. It's easy to run the ship of state aground.
It seems to me, Mound, that the big question in the next election is, "What will happen to the Green Party?"
I agree with Mound on this one. A vote for Green is not a vote for Sheer. It is a vote of conscience for us who can now vote without holding our nose and playing the "lesser of two evils "bullshit. Trudeau did it to himself and can blame no one except the back room boys who pull the strings. I know that Greens nation wide are thrilled with the outcome in P.E.I. and will not squander this chance. Go Green!
There are moments in history when the tide shifts, zoombats. This may be such a moment.
Know your local contest.
Always good advice, John -- particularly in this election.
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