If the findings of the online survey of 600 adults made between March 11 and 13 are accurate, the New Democratic Party led by former premier Rachel Notley now has a significant advantage in Calgary as well as in Edmonton and is closing on the governing UCP even in its rural strongholds.
The Research Co. poll has a rather large margin of error, plus or minus 4 per cent, presumably a result of the relatively small sample size. Somewhat confusingly, the comparator numbers in the pollster’s news release look back to a similar poll taken by the same firm more than a year ago. Still, it tells a story that feels right as Kenney continues give the appearance of foundering as his date with destiny on April 9 nears.
Research Co.’s poll shows the NDP leading the UCP by 50 per cent to 25 per cent in Edmonton, and by 47 per cent to 34 per cent in Calgary. Even in rural Alberta, the UCP only leads the NDP by 33 per cent to 31 per cent.
Startlingly, the Research Co. poll shows the NDP leading the UCP among male voters by 40 per cent to 32 per cent, and among female voters by 49 per cent to 28 per cent.
“The UCP is evidently having difficulties maintaining the base together,” observed Research Co. President Mario Canseco, rather understating matters by the sound of it, in his news release yesterday. “While the NDP is keeping 89 per cent of its supporters in the 2019 provincial election, the UCP is only managing to hold on to 51 per cent of their voters.”
Kenney's rival for the leadership of the United Conservative Party just won a by-election in Fort MacMurray-Lac LaBiche.
The bell is tolling for Jason Kenney.
Image: cbc.ca
6 comments:
With the Con tendency to fail upwards, maybe Kenney ought to throw his hat into the federal leadership race. His utter disregard for public health in the name of "freedom" should give him significant street cred. As a bonus, it would put Harper in a bind deciding which of his two former henchmen to back.
Cap
Certainly, Cap, Kenney appears to be totally in line with the federal Conservative base.
NDP vote FELL in the Tar-Sands by election this week.
And then there is this:
https://albertapolitics.ca/2022/03/stolen-data-respected-pollster-refuses-to-publish-private-poll-to-suit-kenney-government-ucp-leaks-it-anyway/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=stolen-data-respected-pollster-refuses-to-publish-private-poll-to-suit-kenney-government-ucp-leaks-it-anyway
As long as the UCP doesn't split, the NDP are long odds in Alberta.
Jean may replace Kenny, PoV. If that happens, all bets are off.
Brain Jean would almost certainly hold the UCP together to beat Notley’s NDP, but if Kenney stays on as leader, he is unpopular enough that I figure Notley should have a really good chance of making it back to the Premiership. And Kenney’s crew has just pulled what is almost certainly a gambit to ensure his leadership survives Jean’s challenge by changing the voting rules for the leadership review at the last minute. Which given the voting shenanigans during the last leadership race between the two is probably something everyone should have expected.
Kenney will not go quietly, BJ.
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