Vladimir Putin faces defeat in Ukraine -- and that worries Tom Friedman:
Why do I say that defeat in Ukraine is Putin’s only option, that only the timing and size is in question? Because the easy, low-cost invasion he envisioned and the welcome party from Ukrainians he imagined were total fantasies — and everything flows from that.
Putin completely underestimated Ukraine’s will to be independent and become part of the West. He completely underestimated the will of many Ukrainians to fight, even if it meant dying, for those two goals. He completely overestimated his own armed forces. He completely underestimated President Biden’s ability to galvanize a global economic and military coalition to enable Ukrainians to stand and fight and to devastate Russia at home — the most effective U.S. coalition-building effort since George H.W. Bush made Saddam Hussein pay for his folly of seizing Kuwait. And he completely underestimated the ability of companies and individuals all over the world to participate in, and amplify, economic sanctions on Russia — far beyond anything governments initiated or mandated.
In Russia, defeat has global consequences:
Putin surely knows that “the Russian national tradition is unforgiving of military setbacks,” observed Leon Aron, a Russia expert at the American Enterprise Institute, who is writing a book about Putin’s road to Ukraine.
“Virtually every major defeat has resulted in radical change,” added Aron, writing in The Washington Post. “The Crimean War (1853-1856) precipitated Emperor Alexander II’s liberal revolution from above. The Russo-Japanese War (1904-1905) brought about the First Russian Revolution. The catastrophe of World War I resulted in Emperor Nicholas II’s abdication and the Bolshevik Revolution. And the war in Afghanistan became a key factor in Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms.” Also, retreating from Cuba contributed significantly to Nikita Khrushchev’s removal two years later.
Putin has no good options. He can only lose. The only question is whether he will lose small or big:
Wait until Putin fully grasps that his only choices left in Ukraine are how to lose — early and small and a little humiliated or late and big and deeply humiliated.
I can’t even wrap my mind around what kind of financial and political shocks will radiate from Russia — this country that is the world’s third-largest oil producer and possesses some 6,000 nuclear warheads — when it loses a war of choice that was spearheaded by one man, who can never afford to admit defeat.
Image: Vanity Fair
19 comments:
Seems to me that Putin could retain control over Crimea, Donbas and Lugansk, areas Russia already controls, and declare victory. Zelenskyy has indicated a willingness to compromise here. The key is to do this quickly. The longer the war drags on, the more the political cost of ending it increases for Putin - think Vietnam and Afghanistan.
The problem is that I'm not sure Putin is a rational actor at this point. The French foreign minister met with him recently and remarked that Putin is now paranoid, whereas five years ago he was rational. When meeting with Macron, Putin insisted on keeping 10 meters between them. There are recent photos of him meeting with staff that show even greater distance between him and others. Contrast this with earlier photos of Putin interacting with world leaders at very close range, shaking hands with Trump and so on. This is not a good sign.
Cap
Putin appears to be more and more irrational, Cap. Like Stalin, he's increasingly paranoid.
Vladimir Putin faces defeat in Ukraine
I must have missed something. Militarily, it looks like Russia has won, absent a miracle. Ukraine has no air force. It has no navy. It is likely that Ukraine cannot even reach the Black Sea. The last I heard, the major part of the Ukrainian army was in a kettle in Eastern Ukraine, Kherson has fallen, Kiev is encircled as is Mariupol and Odessa. Admittedly Kharkov seems like a bit of a mess.
The Donetsk and Lugansk militias appear to be retaking much of the two oblasts that the Kiev Gov't had held.
Zelensky has been calling for a NATO no-fly zone---about as stupid an idea as one can imagine---handing out guns and instructions on how to make Molotov cocktails to the citizenry and calling on mercenaries to come and help.
@ Cap & Owen
I think that he is Covid paranoid more than more paronoid than usual. Still having a US senator call for one's assassination might raise one's level of paranioa just as having the UK Foreign secretary call for regime change might too. This by the way is Putin's explanation for raising the readiness state of Russia's nuclear forces. He said that such a statement from such ann official had to be taken seriously.
There is a video of him at a Women's Day luncheon where he is sitting at the table with 20--30 women and no one is masked. It is quite interesting as he gives a short explanation of the reasons for attacking Ukraine.
Putin on Women's Day
English subtitles.
There's that old notion of a Pyrrhic Victory -- which is a success that comes with unacceptable costs. The costs eventually do you in. The phrase comes from ancient history. King Pyrrhus of Greece defeated the Romans. But the Romans eventually subjugated the Greeks.
Those women might join the Women For Trump.
There's that old notion of a Pyrrhic Victory
Yes and that's what I thought we were likely to see. I have begun to change my mind. Apparently a new poll shows an uptick in Putin's popularity. It's now about 70%. There definitely is opposition to the war but in fairly small urban groups.
If we look at the various countries that are participating in sanctions against Russia it's not the whole world that is supportive. It looks like "all of our friends". Most of the world doesn't seem to want to be involved whatsoever including India and China two the largest economies in the world.
The sanctions against Russia are going to really hurt but they seem to be put together with very little thought. If the commentators I am reading are correct a lot of these sanctions are going to do more damage the rest of the world economy than to Russia. The US in particular seems to be shooting itself in the foot. Also it's currently looking like a fool since it's begging Venezuela for oil and may even be doing the same with Iran.
The Romans eventually subjugated the Greeks.
Indeed, and only 130 years and 3 or 4 wars later if we're talking about Greek proper. :)
We'll see, jrk. We are going to feel the cost of the sanctions. But things will be rough in Russia when the ruble is worth less than a penny.
The fog of war.
OK, no cake-walk for Russia, that's clear.
All else is spin and speculation atm.
The Zelenskyy compromise comments have been under-reported in our media.
The question is "What kind of cost is Putin willing to pay? At the moment, we don't know the answer to that question, PoV.
We have to consider that whilst the 'West' dis guards it's commercial enterprise in Russia the same companies will be pursuing back door methods to protect their investments.
Canada is, at the moment, hypocritical with Russian involvement in Alberta oil.
At the same time i suspect Justin Trudeau is breathing sigh of relief that he has justification for Keystone XL and others.
BP has yet to offer explanations to how it will diverse from Russian oil, your guess is as suspect as mine!!
We are entering the age of not the oligarchs but the 'OIL'igarchs
Canada is fast trying to emulate it's heyday of the supplier of raw goods.
For Canada , this will not end well.
TB
There are a lot of questions about how this will end. Not just what Putin will accept and what price he's willing to pay, but also what the Ukrainians are willing to give him to end this, and then also if "the west", so to speak, is willing to accept that deal and agree to end the sanctions they've imposed. And not just the ones since this new invasion, but also the ones stemming from the initial 2014 invasion and seizure of Crimea and part of Donbas if Ukraine decides to recognize their separation from Ukraine proper. After all, a peace that still leaves the Russian economy In freefall is no victory for Putin. And China isn't going bail him out. They don't actually trade that much with Russia, in part because China's population centres are on the Pacific coast and Russia's are all west of the Urals on the opposite side of the continent, and because Russia really doesn't have that much worth trading, or the money to buy what China sells. China trades far more with Europe and the US than they do with Russia and are thus unlikely to give all that up just to make Putin more secure. The only way anything like that happens is if Russia becomes China's client state, and I doubt that goes over very well with Putin either.
Regardless, I expect far more ugliness before any resolution is reached. And whatever finally happens, this has already turned into a strategic disaster for Russia.
We are going to feel the cost of the sanctions
It looks like it will be brutal.
But things will be rough in Russia when the ruble is worth less than a penny.
Internally it may not make a big difference I am told. It only hurts if you are buying
foreign goods and the Russian economy can hunker down and hold out fairly well. It is about as close to a self-sufficient economy as we get. Bananas and pineapples are out I think but you need rice, we grow rice and so on.
They are a lot better situated than we are.
@ Northern PoV
The Zelenskyy compromise comments have been under-reported in our media.
Don't know where I saw them but they looked very close to the original Russian demands. If no one shoots Zelensky we may get a fast end to this horror.
@ Owen
"What kind of cost is Putin willing to pay?
He usually is reasonable but his demands are probably pretty set. As PoV says "no cake-walk for Russia, that's clear". Russia has taken huge risks and it has cost Russian lives. Face saving gestures are likely to be welcome. Substantive changes in Russian demands? Highly unlikely but possible, at least on the margins.
You can bet that the Western Shieks smell opportunity, TB.
Without a doubt, things will get uglier in Ukraine, BJ. But, in the long run, Russia will probably be on the brink of collapse -- again.
Apparently, Putin has simply told the Ukrainians, "Surrender." He doesn't negotiate, jrk.
Putin has simply told the Ukrainians, "Surrender." He doesn't negotiate
On his main demands, no not at all.
Like his Orange Cousin, Putin can't deal with defeat, jrk.
I'm sorry thwap. I lost your question which was "How do you know he won't negotiate -- and then I answered it in the wrong blogpost and gave jrk credit. Yesterday was a tough day day.
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