I tend to think that, if the Conservatives choose Pierre Poilievre as their leader, they will wander in the political desert for quite a while. Chantal Hebert has a warning for people like me: Think again. Think Stephen Harper:
If you are not a Conservative supporter and are nevertheless cheering on Ontario MP Pierre Poilievre in his leadership bid because you believe the party will either implode or at least never make it to government on his watch, you may want to have a chat with Paul Martin’s former palace guard.
Over Martin’s abbreviated tenure as leader and prime minister, the notion that Stephen Harper’s presence at the helm of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) was a prescription for repeat Conservative defeats was widespread within Liberal ranks.
Such was not the case:
Two years into his leadership, Harper led the Conservative party to government for a decade. Over that period, the CPC thrived in Ontario. It also won more seats in Quebec than the Liberals did in Saskatchewan and Alberta. That trend still endures.
It helped Harper that he was in the right place at the right time.
The Conservatives were tired enough of losing to set aside their differences and focus on the big prize of government. After a decade of Liberal rule, public fatigue with the governing party was on the rise.
Come the next election, the Liberals will be close to the point in the political cycle where voter fatigue with the incumbent tends to become a serious threat.
At the same time, what most stands to unite the quarrelsome factions within the conservative movement on the heels of three consecutive defeats is a desire to win.
At the moment, leading the Conservative Party is like herding cats. What will matter most is whether or not the cats will fall in line.
Image: Linked In
8 comments:
Two 'brands' dominate Canadian politics. The Bloc, NDP and Greens and now Peoples Party etc are unwitting enablers for one side or the other.
The media-stenographers will make sure that one of these parties 'wins' using our fptp dogs-breakfast, voting system.
And on the existential issues,
- actually dealing with climate change for example rather than offering various shades of greenwashing -
there is alas, very little difference.
And watching the NDP gov'ts of Alberta and BC, I'll add that the NDP-in-power really suck too.
Not a very hopeful outlook, PoV.
After the unbelievable tRump accession in 2016, it is obvious that previously accepted conventional wisdom is defunct and thugs like Lil'PP should never be discounted.
That said ..... Lil'PP has an uphill climb if he prevails in the CONtest ...
When it comes to traditional charisma, Harper had none.
He did manage to project some strange form of gravitas. That, and the message-discipline that it enabled, got Harper elected three times.
We have all heard, and seen for ourselves, that Lil'PP has zero charisma. I don't see the gravitas as yet. Harper managed to hide his petulant anger most of the time. Lil'PP comes across like a hungry hyena.
Poilievre is all about anger, PoV. To be successful, a prime minister needs much more than that.
Harper was all about censorship and secrecy .
I recall his deputy minister of finance giving 3 examples of GST savings from tax reductions by the blue slime in his hometown paper.
He got all three wrong
Henceforth nothing was released by any MP before PMO approval.
The only purpose of political contributions is to rig elections.
Use the media , down play this , up play that , flood the echo chamber , send in the dirt diggers.
Make the fight dirty enough nobody of character will contend.
Is there an arena that exhibits worse behavior than the house of commons?
I'll wait ......
Harper Redux is what Poilievre has to offer, lungta. Do we really want that?
Never rule out Liberal self-destruction. The next election will be Trudeau's fourth as leader. So far, he's managed to avoid a major scandal.
But a lot of federal dosh went out the door in the name of Covid relief without the usual oversight. I wouldn't be at all surprised if there were a few "over-allocations" to friends of the party. BoJo's UK Tories have been awash in revelations of large PPE contracts to Tories with no prior history in the industry and who delivered little or nothing. That sounds like the kind of scam that may have parallels closer to home.
Cap
When the Liberals go down, Cap, they usually defeat themselves. Time will tell.
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