Justin Trudeau needs to pay attention to Kamala Harris. Robin Sears writes:
It is rare that one event can upend an entire political landscape overnight. But it happened at 1:45 on a Sunday afternoon in Delaware.
Mindful that every campaign exaggerates its wins and discounts its failures, consider these statistics about U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, who become the Democratic frontrunner on Sunday to replace President Joe Biden on this year’s Democratic ticket.
She has raised more than $100 million in 48 hours. A sum never before seen.
She has won more than 2,000 delegates endorsement, guaranteeing her nomination at the Democratic Convention in three weeks time. She had won 20,000 new volunteers overnight.
There's a lesson in Harris' rise and in Canadian polls:
Respected pollster Nik Nanos cautioned not to take as secure his “who’s on top” numbers. They tell him that a large chunk of Conservative support is made up of Trudeau deserters, not Poilievre lovers. He warns all those saying the political stage is set for a Tory landslide to be careful. A single serious mistake could wound Poilievre badly. Where his potential deserters would then go is unknown. But it is a flashing yellow light for Conservative strategists.
This appears to be what is happening to the Trump campaign already. Having predicated their entire strategy on mocking Joe Biden, who finally relented to pressure and decided to not run for re-election this fall. The Republicans are in a bit of a pickle using the same tactics on the immigrant child of Indian and Jamaican parents who fought her way to the top on merit.
Replacing one wounded leader with a fresher face at the last minute rarely works in Canadian politics, ask Kim Campbell. Still, worried Liberals may be watching the Harris juggernaut quickly build speed and scale and wonder. Apropos Nick Nanos observation, maybe even a non-superstar new Liberal leader could successfully woo a large slice of Trudeau deserters back. Harris seems to have wooed many worried Democrats back in days.
We don't repeat American history in this country. But this is an era of rapid change. Canadians are caught up in that change as much as the Americans are.
Image: CTV News Montreal
4 comments:
Biden's motives to hang on and see if he could fool us all about his age-related condition and get himself re-elected.
1) Had he encouraged a succession-primary contest than he would have spent two years as a 'lame duck'.
2) He relied on tRump-angst to win.
The wheels came off Biden's bus about a month ago ... my bet is Biden knew then but delayed till the Rethuglican convention/VP-pick was done.
(We all got lucky that his timing also blunted the assassination-attempt bump.)
Jr. has similar reasons and until recently the Lil'PP angst was working for him. My guess is Jr. will take his walk in the snow before the next election and is 'Biden' his time while looking for the right timing.
We'll see what Justin decides come winter, PoV.
It might not be his decision to make, Owen. Despite his gaffs, JT has had a good run and it will be 10 years by next election. He can retire undefeated and do well on the lecture circuit south of the 49th parallel.
mr perfect
He's had a good run, perfect.
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