Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Work After The Pandemic

The pandemic has changed the way many of us work. Paul Krugman writes:

A year of isolation has, in effect, provided remote work with a classic case of infant industry protection, a concept usually associated with international trade policy that was first systematically laid out by none other than Alexander Hamilton.

Hamilton asserted that there were many industries that could flourish in the young United States but couldn’t get off the ground in the face of imports. Given a break from competition, for example through temporary tariffs, these industries could acquire enough experience and technological sophistication to become competitive.

John A. Macdonald's National Policy was imported from Alexander Hamilton. Working from home is a little bit like Macdonald's National Policy:

The pandemic, by temporarily making our former work habits impossible, has clearly made us much better at exploiting the possibilities of remote work, and some of what we used to do — long commutes so we can sit in cubicles, constant flying to meetings of dubious value — won’t be coming back.

For many, it's a new way of doing things. But it won't completely revolutionize the world of work. Its effect will be something like what happened when e-readers were introduced:

A decade ago many observers believed that both physical books and the bookstores that sold them were on the verge of extinction. And some of what they predicted came to pass: e-readers took a significant share of the market, and major bookstore chains took a significant financial hit.

But e-books’ popularity plateaued around the middle of the last decade, never coming close to overtaking physical books. And while big chains have suffered, independent bookstores have actually been flourishing.

Why was the reading revolution so limited? The convenience of downloading e-books is obvious. But for many readers this convenience is offset by subtler factors. The experience of reading a physical book is different and, for many, more enjoyable than reading e-ink. And browsing a bookstore is also a different experience from purchasing online. But what I find in a bookstore, especially a well-curated independent store, are books I wasn’t looking for but end up treasuring.

The remote work revolution will probably play out similarly, but on a much vaster scale.

So what will work look like in the future?

The advantages of remote work — either from home or, possibly, in small offices located far from dense urban areas — are obvious. Both living and work spaces are much cheaper; commutes are short or nonexistent; you no longer need to deal with the expense and discomfort of formal business wear, at least from the waist down.

The advantages of going back to in-person work will, by contrast, be relatively subtle — the payoffs from face-to-face communication, the serendipity that can come from unscheduled interactions, the amenities of urban life.

So the best bet is that life and work in, say, 2023 will look a lot like life and work in 2019, but a bit less so. We may commute to the office less than we used to; there may well be a glut of urban office space. But most of us won’t be able to stay very far from the madding crowd.

We await the future.

Image: ricoh-europe.com


14 comments:

Anonymous said...

While I've been extremely fortunate to work from home over the past year, I'm not a proponent of it long term and didn't pre-pandemic either. It is ideal for people lacking affordable child care and their most affordable option so hopefully organizations take that into account moving forward. The biggest take away I have from the experience of the past year is that staring at your own face and other faces constantly over the course of the day, is more exhausting than a long commute- zoom fatigue is real. I think the comparison with e-books gives a fairly accurate picture of the future of the tele commute. BC Waterboy

Owen Gray said...

Years ago, waterboy, I got a degree in Adult Education. Classes were both online and in person. Students came from a wide geographical area, so working online cut down on travel. But, when it came to evaluating the experience, most of us felt that -- while we enjoyed not having to travel so much -- class interaction spurred problem-solving. Some problems can't be solved online.

Rural said...

As a long time self-employed rural resident I perhaps have a greater appreciation of the opportunities and challenges in the changing acceptance of not having to commute to a city just to make a living. Given the challenges coming to us by changes in climate, population and governance I generally welcome the gradual move towards more self sufficiency. Its not always an easy transition but I wish all those that have chosen to, or been forced to, make the transition the best of luck, as other have said there is a danger of isolation however!

Owen Gray said...

Isolation is a problem for lots of us, Rural. On the other hand, if we master the technology, we don't have to feel that we're alone.

Lulymay said...

Another perspective or observation is that many of us get our "social" interaction from our work place (we are primarily social animals aren't we?) and therefore we don't have that great need to be out and about in the evenings or weekends in order to meet that social need. Besides, when you work at your place of employment all day, there is not a lot of time to get all your "home" work accomplished is there.

There is a happy medium in all of this, but as humans we tend to overlook that old adage of work/home balance and nowadays want it all!

Gordie said...

I'm retired now and have been since before the pandemic. I don't think I'd have the discipline to work as hard at home as I did in the office. Also, I rode my bike to work and thoroughly enjoyed my ride.

Owen Gray said...

If there is a benefit to COVID, Lulymay, it may be that it gives us a better sense of "balance." Surely, all of this should get us to do things better.

Owen Gray said...

If you were riding your bike to work, Gordie, you already had a sense of balance.

Gordie said...

Ha ha ha...no pun intended?

Owen Gray said...

I'm sorry Gordie. I couldn't resist. But the comment also has the virtue of being true -- in a larger sense.

the salamander said...

.. As a young man, I walked to work.. ie to the barn. If there was 'commuting' it was to nearby farms, on shanks mare, behind a team of horses, on a tractor to the back cornfield or the like. At 19 I got my first bike and my first car. I do love to drive but not to commute. I love public transport because I can read.. and/or listen to music.. and people watch (which I do without staring) I still ride, but have not owned a car for some 25 years. I drove the largest vehicles I could for many years.. Some had 18 wheels, cut the corn or combined the fields, some had wheels far taller than me, some had 'tracks' and were used on mountains mainly at night.. No, I never drove a train though I was in the locomotives many a time & I have bribed many a person just for a minute to claim I have pulled a 747 with its nose overhead & feel the rush & have taken the wheel of a Great Lakes freighter in the Welland Canal & dined with the Captain at his table. I favor 4 wheel drive and positrac, 2 wheels are a blast and so are 4 slicks and turn Two full out at Mosport.

I guess I was never cut out to be a commuter.. There needed to be a 'raison d'etre'

Owen Gray said...

There is a reason to move and to move things, sal. But lots of us don't -- or shouldn't have to -- do that.

Trailblazer said...

The concept has much in common with home schooling!
I would suggest that a moderate approach is needed.
The feeding frenzy of the modern office space could well benefit by a little more space.
The learning space of home schooling detracts from social interaction.
Much more discussion will be required to reach a decision on the values!

TB

Owen Gray said...

I agree, TB. This is no time to proceed at full speed ahead.