Youth: The Wild Card

When it comes to elections, a lot has been written about the apathy of the young. Recent polling in Ontario suggests that apathy may no longer be the default position for millennials. Martin Regg Cohn writes:

Among those aged 18 to 24, only one in three (34 per cent) said they bothered to vote back in 2014, according to surveys conducted for the Toronto Star by the polling firm Campaign Research. But as Ontario’s June 7 election looms, there may be something in the air that makes young voters rise up.

A new analysis of the polling data suggests today’s millennials are more mindful of democracy than commonly thought: A remarkable 43 per cent indicated they were “extremely likely” to vote next month, and a further 34 per cent “very likely” this time (a less reliable barometer, but still promising).

Taken together, those numbers suggest far more voters aged 18 to 24 could participate, making them a wild card in the June 7 election, according to online panels totalling 8,065 eligible Ontario voters, with a margin of error of 1.1 per cent.

“Millennials are more global-centric and issues-based,” Campaign Research CEO Eli Yufest told me. “Social issues resonate more with millennials aged 18 to 24.”

Right now, polls are suggesting that Doug Ford will be Ontario's next premier. But my hunch is that the young are not in Ford's camp. Their issues are not Ford's issues:

Education and issues such as sex education, LGBTQ and abortion rights are dramatically more important for young people than other age groups (where they barely register), according to the data. Youth are also more inclined to vote in federal versus provincial elections where they are attracted to global issues, suggesting that concerns over global warming could have an impact in the coming campaign.

Indeed, young people are far more likely than older adults to say they’d be motivated by an “issue, politician or party that I feel strongly about” — which perhaps explains the jump for Justin Trudeau’s cannabis plank, but also suggests susceptibility to a provincial election where carbon pricing is a flashpoint or PC Leader Doug Ford and Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne are lightning rods.

Millennials also appear less cynical than older voters, perhaps a vestige of youthful idealism: Young people are one-third less likely to say they didn’t vote because they “don’t trust politicians,” and are far less inclined to say that politicians are “just in it for themselves.”

I'm not sure if they would vote for Kathleen Wynne or Andrea Horwath. But a youthful wave for either Wynne or Horwath could radically change Ontario's electoral map. If the young don't show up at the polls, there will probably be a Ford in the premier's office. But if the young do turn out, Mr. Ford's path to victory is not so certain.

Image: The Toronto Star