Thursday, May 10, 2018

The World At The Roulette Table


The Iran Nuclear deal bears the official acronym JCPOA -- short for Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Donald  Trump torpedoed JCPOA two days ago. The rationale for his decision, Jonathan Manthorpe writes, seems embarrassingly clear:

The only rational explanation of Trump’s actions – if that is not an oxymoron – is that the JCPOA was a major foreign policy achievement of his predecessor, Barack Obama. Trump gives every indication of despising Obama, and of believing that his supporters want him to erase all evidence that a black man ever inhabited the Oval Office.

His petty, weak minded decision has isolated the United States:

Foremost is Trump’s rejection of the clear and persistent advice from JCPOA partners Britain, France and Germany not to junk the agreement. All three said there are flaws in the agreement, but the sensible approach is to stick with it and try to improve the deal in talks with Iran.
Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and French President Emmanuel Macron, all invested considerable diplomatic credibility in trying to deter Trump from abandoning the JCPOA.
But Trump chose to display contempt for three of the closest and most loyal allies the U.S. has had since the Second World War. Having been spurned, they will have little enthusiasm in the future to either consider Trump’s interests or come to his aid in the future.
Future U.S. isolation may well be measured from May 8, 2018.

Apparently, Trump believes that his actions will have a salutary effect on North Korea. But, despite Trump's braggadocio, Kim Jung Un will read the writing on the wall:

The message Kim is getting is that Trump cannot be trusted to keep a deal, so better not to make one. His logical reaction will be to keep his nuclear deterrent stock pile well primed, pursue economic relations with South Korea, and, most importantly, ensure China’s Xi Jinping has got his back.
So Kim flew to Beijing on Monday for two-days of discussions with Chinese President Xi. Over the past few weeks Kim has gone to great lengths to restore the amicable relationship with Beijing, apparently with success.

Trump's life has been a series of miscalculations -- which Trump insists were actually triumphs. He claims that pulling out of the JCPOA is a triumph. But now more than his financial health is at stake. The man who knew nothing about the casino business is now gambling with the world's future.

Image: Real Iran

4 comments:

The Mound of Sound said...

Not one of America's various intelligence/security agencies, including the Pentagon, backed the move. Many Republicans did but that is on partisan political grounds, sort of like their opposition to climate change action. But, thank you Owen, for allowing me to unsheathe that wonderful word, "troglodyte."

Yes, Kim now knows that America cannot be trusted to keep its word. Of course that goes ditto for Kim as far as the US is concerned.

While we're on the topic of American reliability, what about article 5 of the NATO charter? Remember Trump has already mused that there are some minor NATO members that America might not be in any hurry to assist if they were beset by Russia.

Maybe we should make Trump an offer. Canada should offer to go halfers with the US on Trump's wall only he has to agree to build it along the 49th.

Owen Gray said...

Back in the 1850's there was an American poltical party whose members proudly wore the moniker "Know Nothings," Mound -- a synonym for "troglodytes."

the salamander said...

.. this whole 'partisan' politics thing slays me
Its like putting a bag over your head..
hold your breath.. snort some glue..
and everything is wonderful..

I had no idea how many head up their ass
scumbags were of voting age or politicians

I picked the wrong career..
tho I would rather help people.. which I did
instead of screw them over.. which I never ever did

Owen Gray said...

It dependss on how you define success, Sal. If success means "I win, you lose," the future of society is in grave danger.