He's Been There Before

Conservative premiers are lining up to fight two federal pieces of legislation -- Bill C-69 and Bill C-48. They say that both bills will trigger a national unity crisis. And they have worked very hard to get Quebec premier Francois Legault on their side. But Legault has refused to sign a joint communique with the other premiers. Chantal Hebert writes:

The official reason for declining the invitation to sign was that the amendments the Conservative premiers were adamant Trudeau accept in the final version of bill C-69 did not reflect Quebec’s concerns.

But Legault was also wary of the partisan undertones of the letter.

The end game of the Conservative premiers is not to have a pair of environment-related federal bills dismissed or rewritten.

Their latest offensive is part of a battle to the finish to help Conservative Party Leader Andrew Scheer oust the Liberals from power in the Oct. 21 federal election.

That strategy has been tried before, when Legault was a member of Lucien Bouchard's government, and the battle was over the Clarity Act:

At the time of the 2000 federal election PQ strategists were convinced then-prime minister Jean Chrétien would pay a hefty electoral price in Quebec for having given Ottawa the legal capacity to set the terms of engagements of future referendums.

They believed voters would rally to the premier’s contention — one shared by the bulk of the province’s chattering class — that the federal law was an attack on Quebecers’ collective right to self-determination. They hoped it would rekindle sovereigntist passions.

They were wrong. Chrétien won the popular vote and almost tied the Bloc Québécois for seats. A short time later, Bouchard resigned. He said the federal result was a major factor in his decision. The latter did suggest that in his role as Quebec gatekeeper vis-à-vis Ottawa, he was all bark and no bite.

The Conservative premiers are playing the same game. Perhaps it will work in Alberta and Saskatchewan. But Ontario and New Brunswick are different places:

Whether Doug Ford — an unpopular Ontario premier whose vocal backing of Scheer the Liberals hope will drive more votes their way — or Higgs, whose New Brunswick government was elected with a smaller share of the popular vote than the official opposition, will be similarly vindicated by their respective electorates is much less certain.

Trudeau could yet replenish his moral authority at their expense, leaving them with a weaker hand in their dealings with a re-elected Liberal federal government and some egg on their faces on the provincial front.

Jason Kenney and Doug Ford would love to make the next election about national unity. Not Francois Legault. As Huck Finn said, "I been there before."

Image: City News Toronto