Ontario is re-opening its economy today -- again. Brooks Fallis writes that we are on the brink of a third wave:
Canada sits at a pandemic crossroads. Second waves are receding thanks to successful lockdowns and restrictions. Reopening of schools and economies without meaningful improvements in surveillance or containment is set to intersect with emerging variants of concern and vaccine shortages, creating a perfect storm for a massive third wave.
Unfortunately, the pandemic response has become increasingly politicized. In-fighting between different levels of government is now commonplace and directing blame seems more frequent than finding solutions to help us out of the crisis. At government press conferences, wishful thinking is sometimes presented as scientific fact.
In December, the end of the pandemic felt within reach. Vaccines were successfully and safely developed at record speed and huge volumes were promised by pharmaceutical companies. Canada had apparently locked-in an excess of doses. Individual COVID-19 patient mortality was dropping, and many provinces believed they were equipped to navigate second waves with a strategy of graduated restrictions.
Since then, much has changed. The pandemic is clearly far from over and has become decidedly more complex. Governments that failed to leverage appropriate scientific expertise risk being further exposed as unprepared and rudderless as this complexity mounts.
We now face two significant challenges:
The new variants of concern (VOCs) present two major new challenges. The first is a more difficult virus to control and contain. The B.1.1.7 variant is about 60 per cent more transmissible. Early evidence suggests it might also cause more severe disease, and have a higher mortality rate, though we do not yet know this with certainty. Variants are spreading in many communities across Canada. Unfortunately, most jurisdictions lack the ability to identify VOCs in real time.
The second is concern around immune evasion. Some VOCs (B.1.351 and P.1) could cause disease in people with natural immunity from prior COVID-19 infection or immunity from vaccination. Again, more data is needed, but the mere possibility is frightening.
Add to that the problems we have had with getting enough vaccinations into enough arms and it's clear we are a long way from seeing the end of COVID.
Image: STAT
4 comments:
Reopening at this point is criminal. The case counts are still high and the B117 variant is widespread in Ontario. UK researchers have found that variant to be more easily spread and up to 70% more deadly.
We know what needs to be done, Australia, NZ and the Atlantic provinces have proved it - shut down until new cases are in the single digits then implement aggressive track and trace. We know what Ford is doing will result in a third wave and hundreds of needless deaths. Ford and his sidekick Dr. Williams can no longer credibly claim ignorance of how to deal with this pandemic.
Cap
Ford and his supporters still don't understand that it's a sequence, Cap. It's not a balancing act.
I noticed that the Hastings & Prince Edward and the Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington medical officers of health were so impressed with Ford's management of the pandemic that, when their regions opened a few days ago, they were pointing out that businesses could ask for proof of residency and refuse service to anyone out of the region.
They feared a sudden influx of Toronto or Ottawa tourists. There was as assurance from one Medical officer of health that they had checked with the Ontario Human Right Commission that this was not discriminatory under the Act.
We knew Ford was an idiot but he seems even stupider than I thought and my expectations were not high.
We live in Prince Edward County, jrk. And I can confirm that is indeed the case.
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