There has been a lot of speculation about a spring election. Chantal Hebert writes there won't be an election until vaccinations are in the arms of Canadians:
Erin O’Toole is right when he predicts the next campaign will not be fought with all eyes on the rearview mirror. The path to a successful economic recovery will take precedence on the road travelled during the pandemic. But the underlying ballot-box question will be that of the competence of the main contenders.
That’s why an efficient vaccine deployment is so central to Liberal fortunes. That’s also why O’Toole is scrambling these days to recast his party as a reassuring government in waiting.
But the Conservative leader’s biggest problem so far is neither his shadow cabinet nor his low profile, but the fact that he is failing to make a good first impression on a growing number of Canadians.
They are entitled to ask which is the real O’Toole: the leadership candidate who railed against his main rival’s centrist views on his way to victory, or the party leader who swears he would govern from the centre on the lead-up to a federal campaign.
Each of the main parties has their work cut out for them. The Liberals need a successful vaccination rollout. The Conservatives need a positive impression of O' Toole. But the Dippers are also part of the equation:
The pandemic has complicated the life of all opposition parties, but it has also restored some of the NDP’s sense of purpose by allowing Jagmeet Singh and his team to focus on issues that play to the party’s strengths and history.
The NDP’s pitch to end for-profit long-term care and bring the system under the Canada Health Act will probably not get the party very far in Quebec, where the political culture is hostile to a larger federal role in social policy. But it could play well in places like Ontario and British Columbia, where the party has a real shot at improving its electoral lot. It is also an issue the New Democrats are comfortable fighting for.
And the Green Party's future is up in the air:
Green Party Leader Annamie Paul’s decision to run again in the Liberal stronghold of Toronto Centre a big gamble. The upside is that she already has boots on the ground, having run in the riding in a recent byelection. Another plus is Toronto Centre’s location at ground zero of the English-language national media.
But if her hope is to win the seat by wooing local NDP supporters and her larger plan to overtake and eventually replace the New Democrats on the federal scene, she may be a campaign too late.
In the last election, the Greens boasted a sure-footed leader in Elizabeth May against a rookie New Democrat rival. This time the roles are reversed.
And what about the Bloc Quebecois?
Expect the Bloc Québécois to spend more time basking in the sunshine of François Legault’s government than sharing the stage with its sovereigntist brother-in-arms in the National Assembly. A Mainstreet poll published this week pegged the Coalition Avenir Québec at 48 per cent in provincial voting intentions, versus 11 per cent for the Parti Québécois.
But by the time we get to summer -- when the vaccine rollout is supposed to be complete -- so much could change.
Image: Wikipedia
10 comments:
Last year was the time to call a snap election. The Cons and Greens had new leaders, the NDP was spinning its wheels, and the Lib pandemic response had put money in the pockets of desperate Canadians. Indeed, last year's three provincial elections saw all incumbents re-elected to majorities.
I don't see the upside of a spring election. Although Trudeau has no way of changing the situation, the opposition parties will be banging on about the vaccine roll-out being worse than in the US. The CRA is trying to claw back CERB benefits from Canadians still under lockdown, while the transportation sector announces huge layoffs. Now is not the time to call an election.
As for the fall, who knows what things will look like. But I don't see Trudeau rushing to the polls anytime soon. Which is good - I much prefer the Libs with their feet to the fire in a minority government.
Cap
Owen, I think there's something else at play. What, I don't know but here are some possibilities in no particular order. Trade agreements prevent us from controlling our own drug policy. The US likes to keep Canada under its thumb, sort of like Puerto Rico. Wild paranoia: Stephen Harper has persuaded Big Pharma to withhold vaccines until after the next election.
My favourite is that many Canadians have called for a universal pharmacare; I think Trudeau has done so. Vaccine producers know this and are fighting it under the table. I suspect there are furious negotiations happening out of sight.
I'm probably wrong on all counts but I don't trust what I'm hearing.
The longer the pandemic goes on, the more fatigued Canadians will get, Cap. The Libs will have to face the people some time. But the longer they can put that date off the better.
I suspect Big Pharma would be fighting pharmacare, Toby -- regardless of what else was happening.
And Big Pharma will undoubtedly try to influence our election.
BTW, why don't we call lobbying what it is? Corruption.
An interesting suggestion, Toby. I suspect someone would come up with a new synonym for the word.
Like generals who always prepare to fight the last war, politicians can put the public at risk by protracted vaccine rollouts that fail to keep up with evolving virus variants. We're focused on Covid-19, what I call Covid Classic, but the CDC and others say the big threat will be variants that are both more contagious and more harmful.
The New York Times this morning reports that US researchers have found seven, all-American variants.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/02/14/world/covid-19-coronavirus#a-new-study-identifies-seven-us-virus-variants-with-the-same-worrying-mutation
An item on National Public Radio this morning described the vaccination problem as a "race." In other words "eventually" may be tantamount to failure.
The Council on Foreign Relations claims that it's the variants that threaten to take down our healthcare systems.
https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/how-dangerous-are-new-covid-19-strains?gclid=Cj0KCQiA1KiBBhCcARIsAPWqoSoBNvNE6jIppE5jFBJna8mHBNww5yqqa9C2jQwafeFUsd5dgBP_gQgaAm7PEALw_wcB
There are many who minimize the threat from delay and call critics alarmist but this pandemic is not static. It is fluid and evolving and that challenges our ability to get ahead of it, putting the Holy Grail, herd immunity, out of reach.
JT is ready with warm assurances for public consumption but I suspect the notion of a snap election is too risky for our ordinarily hesitant prime minister.
I suspect all our political leaders will do all they can to avoid a snap election, Mound. But a scandal could change all of their plans. Thanks for the links.
The Liberals need a successful vaccination rollout.
And, unfortunately in some juristictions, must depend on bumbling provincial gov'ts to actually deliver the program.
As a general comment, I am amazed at either the ignorance or mendacity of O'Toole's and in some cases Singh's statements that take no account of Federal vs Provincial areas of responsibility. Singh's idea on a national long-term care is an example but at least it may be a good idea; O'Toole's complaint about the Federal Gov't when he did not geta Covid-19 test in Ottawa last fall at a provincial testing site was either total constitutional ignorance or straightforeward lying.
O' Toole is a lawyer, jrk. One would think that he has a good grasp of the constitution.
Post a Comment