Political scientists have been analyzing how people voted in the last election. Even though the seat count is about the same, there are shifts happening among the voters. Andrew Parkin and Justin Savoie report that:
Most notably, while the People’s Party of Canada failed to win any seats, its share of the popular vote grew to five per cent — more than double what it earned two years earlier.
The PPC’s support is small yet not easily dismissed. The 841,000 votes it earned makes it the fifth most popular party in the country, well ahead of the Greens (who have appeared on the ballot, addressing the prominent issue of climate change, for decades). The People’s Party won three times more votes than the Reform Party did when it first fielded candidates in 1988, one election prior to its breakthrough in 1993.
At first glance, our fall 2021 survey shows PPC voters have the profile many would expect. They’re dissatisfied with the way things are going in our country today, feel the economy is getting weaker, think there are too many immigrants coming to Canada who don’t adopt the country’s values and hold a favourable opinion of the United States.
Yet these opinions do not really set them apart. Most Conservative Party supporters also hold these views. What does distinguish current PPC voters is their views on the COVID-19 pandemic, and specifically on the issue of vaccination, vaccine mandates and vaccine passports.
The PPC are anti-vaxxers:
For PPC supporters, the No. 1 issue was the loss of freedom stemming from vaccine mandates — a concern barely mentioned by anyone who supported other parties.
Someone who singled out “loss of freedom” during the pandemic as the most important issue facing the country had a 59 per cent chance of supporting the PPC, compared to only a five per cent chance for someone who mentioned any other issue.
Similarly, someone who singled out “COVID-19 vaccination issues” as the most important issue facing the country had a 44 per cent chance of supporting the PPC, compared to a six per cent chance for someone who mentioned any other issue.
Surprisingly, immigration does not move PPCers:
Equally important is the finding that PPC voters stand out much less for their attitudes on immigration. The impact of immigration views on someone’s likelihood of supporting the PPC is barely significant, in stark contrast to their opinions on vaccination.
This does not mean that PPC voters are strong supporters of immigration; rather, it means simply that their views on the subject do not differentiate supporters of the PPC from supporters of some other parties — notably, the Conservatives.
The findings should worry the Conservatives:
It does send a cautionary note to Conservatives who might be wondering what the party can do to bring PPC voters back into the fold. Rejecting new policies on climate change or social diversity is unlikely to help so long as PPC supporters continue to be motivated largely by a single issue — their opposition to vaccines.
As the election outcome itself showed, showing flexibility on vaccine mandates in order to win back defectors to the PPC risks putting more distance between the Conservative Party and the mainstream of Canadian public opinion.
In short, PPC voters were not simply typical Conservative supporters leaning furthest to the right on a range of issues that include government spending, taxation, climate change and immigration. They were, on average, a unique cluster of voters who have rejected the overwhelming public consensus on the need to be vaccinated to contain the spread of COVID-19.
Every country has its nutbars. They've found a place together in The Peoples Party of Canada.
Image: THE CANADIAN PRESS/Lars Hagberg
13 comments:
"Every country has its nutbars. They've found a place together in The Peoples Party of Canada". They are only there temporarily until their parent group get rid of the that"Leftie" Tool and realign themselves with "Big Daddy" Harper's ideals. They have only strayed from the fold and will soon be shepherd back to their bigoted reality
That will make them even more dangerous, zoombats.
Even if there's the positive result of COVID-denying anti-vaxxers splitting the right-wing vote, I'd still rather have a culture where we didn't have to deal with such idiocy at all.
If the cons were a little more brave and perhaps smarter they would NOT try to get these folks back in the fold AND would go one step further and dump the Reform contingent of their party. I wager they would win more elections as I believe there is a huge amount of typical conservatives who do not get hung up on these crazy ideas that the Nutbars do. They aren’t all about religion, immigration, doubting science and scientists, Q type whacked out theories, this feeling of lack of freedom and we need more guns and on and on.
We shouldn’t discount the fact they are out there and a part of society but they are a fringe and should not be given outsized influence.
Right now they are in the conversation because trump made it ok for these people to come out of the corners and join in with the similar minded. If they are made to truly fight for their own piece of the political landscape I don’t think they will do very well and will be seen for what they are. They only get credence now because they get a bigger voice by having it connected to the conservatives.
Canada has always had a couple political fringe groups but usually it was about having some fun with a political message as well.
This present day bunch should not be allowed to flourish or be given the chance to just throw a wrench in the works for a weak minded minority.
I'm not sure it's that easy to hive off the CPP from the Cons simply on the Covid vaccine issue. The Cons also have a coterie of anti-vaxxers led by Marilyn Gladu and Leslyn Lewis. They've been a thorn in O'Toole's side, forcing him to dance an Irish jig hopping between supporting vaccinations and accusing the government of going too far. This vacillation may have cost him the election as it dissatisfied the majority of the population that is vaccinated and supports mandates.
What distinguishes the PPC is their embrace of full Trumpism. Not just skepticism around immigration, but full on "Jews will not replace us" racism. Not just "concern for medical privacy" anti-vax, but full on horse paste eating and unmasked mobs breaking the law. The difference between the Cons and the PPC is only one of degree. The danger is that the Cons will be radicalized to become more like the PPC.
Cap
I agree, Graham. Unfortunately, Maxime Bernier is very good at whipping them up into a frenzy.
That danger grows, Cap, as long as the Harperites are in control of the party.
I'd rather that we didn't have to deal with them, too, thwap. But idiots sprout up like dandelions in the spring.
Oh he can, that’s for sure. They’ll get whipped up at the drop of a hat, or mask. Let them, it looks good on them.
It leaves an impression, Graham. But it isn't impressive.
Any fringe party ought to be in the open. Driving people underground is where the danger lies. Anyong
Please initial your comment, Anon, and I'll publish it.
They should not be ignored, Anyong. But their idiocy should be condemned.
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