Doug Ford wants to build a new highway as part of the system of highways that surround Toronto. But he's running into opposition. Ben Spurr writes:
While the Ontario PC’s are betting the proposed Highway 413 and Bradford Bypass will win over discontented commuters in the run-up to the June 2022 election, the idea that future drivers will zip along empty new highways is likely too good to be true.
Decades worth of research and real-world experience indicates highway expansions have limited ability to reduce congestion, because traffic volumes quickly increase to fill up new road space and gridlock returns within a matter of years.
The phenomenon is called “induced demand,” and experts say it doesn’t appear the province has adequately accounted for it in the highway vision it’s pitching to voters. Even the province’s own projections suggest the 413 would be afflicted by significant congestion soon after it’s built.
“When highway capacity has been expanded, there has been an increase in the amount of driving, and that’s what all the studies show,” said Susan Handy, a professor of environmental science and policy at University of California, Davis. While there’s debate over how fast gridlock returns, “over time you get back to where you were, congestion-wise,” she said.
There are lots of historical examples of induced demand. One is the Katy Freeway:
There’s no shortage of real-world examples of induced demand, which researchers have observed as far back as the 1920s. But one notorious case is the Katy Freeway in Houston, Texas. An expansion of the chronically clogged highway was completed in 2011 at a cost of $2.5 billion (U.S.), creating a traffic corridor that is 26 lanes across at its broadest point and is among the widest on the continent. Although drive times improved immediately after the expansion, by 2014 media reported that trips on the Katy were taking longer than in 2011.
The Fordians are working from an old outdated paradigm. The post COVID world is not going to be about building new and bigger highways.
Image: The Toronto Star
8 comments:
Ford doesn't care about cars idling in traffic. This is all about delivering for his developer buddies. Build a highway to the sticks and watch the subdivisions blossom.
Cap
The Fordians are working from an old outdated paradigm.
This is not only true in terms of travel management. I get the impression that Ford and his principal advisors are totally devoted to the Milton Friedman economic/social model and hold Maggie Thatcher and Ray--Gun Ronny Reagan as their exemplars.
The damage they are doing to education, healthcare and climate change mitigation is frightening. Ford, in particular, really does not seem to understand the modern world. His comment that Ontario would not subsidise the purchase of electronic vehicles because he would not subsidize wealthy people who were buying $100,000 luxury cars seems to indicate that he does- not know there are other car EV cars than a Tesla 3. This reminds me of his late brother's opposition to light rail in Toronto. Rob did not seem to understand that light rail is not a TTC streetcar.
Humm, I wonder if Doug has ever travelled outside of Canada and the USA?
With Ford, it's the old adage in spades, Cap: Follow the money.
Good question, jrk. Curiosity is not Doug's strong suit.
Anyone remember this little gem from 2011?
"Doug Ford blasts Margaret Atwood over libraries, says ‘I don’t even know her’
Councillor Doug Ford has fired back at world-renowned author Margaret Atwood for her criticism of suggested library cuts, telling reporters: “I don’t even know her. If she walked by me, I wouldn’t have a clue who she is.”
Ford also said that the literary icon and activist — who took him to task on Twitter for saying, erroneously, that his Etobicoke ward has more libraries than Tim Hortons — should get herself elected to office or pipe down." Toronto Star
Doug has very limited knowledge of the world and large segments of it just don't exist as far as he is concerned. He picked a few simple ideas in youth and doesn't update ever. Unfortunately there are others just like him who vote for him.
Studies show that highway expansion will not facilitate the flow of traffic. Unfortunately, the Ford government does not do studies, Owen.
Doug's knowledge and experience are pretty thin, ffd. It shows nearly every time he opens his mouth.
Doug makes decisions with his gut, Lorne -- which has proved pretty unreliable.
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