Friday, September 13, 2019

Red Tories


Pundits are suggesting that this election will be won or lost in Ontario -- primarily because Ontario is Canada's most populous province. When politicians come looking for votes here, Tom Walkom writes, they need to remember that Ontarians are Red Tories -- and they have been for a long time:

Analysts often divide voters into two camps: progressive or conservative. That is a useful distinction as far as it goes. But it doesn’t capture Ontario’s political culture which, typically, is an amalgam of both.
In general, Ontarians are wary of abrupt change. They tend to value competent management over ideology. They usually see balance as a virtue.
This is the Tory side of Red Tory-ism.
But voters in Canada’s largest province are also willing to use the state to achieve social goals. Since the early 20th century, they have backed public power in the form of Ontario Hydro (indeed, they eventually punished former premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals for privatizing part of that utility).
This is the Tory side of Red Tory-ism.
But voters in Canada’s largest province are also willing to use the state to achieve social goals. Since the early 20th century, they have backed public power in the form of Ontario Hydro (indeed, they eventually punished former premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals for privatizing part of that utility).

Once again, Justin Trudeau is presenting himself as a Red Tory:

This time around, Trudeau’s Liberals are again emphasizing their Red credentials. On Thursday, they promised to beef up subsidies for first-time home buyers in Canada’s hot housing markets, including Toronto.
They have announced that they have no interest in balanced budgets and are signalling that they will promise a comprehensive pharmacare scheme.
With one important exception, they have made few overtures to the Tory side of the typical Ontario Red Tory. That exception is the Liberal climate-change strategy, which emphasizes the classic, if ultimately unsatisfying, Tory virtue of balance — in this case, between the economy and the environment.

Andrew Scheer -- who still walks in Stephen Harper's shoes -- defines himself very much as a Blue Tory:

Scheer’s Conservatives have focused almost completely on the Tory side of Red Toryism. They accuse the Liberals of poor financial management. They accuse them of incompetence in foreign affairs, particularly with regard to China.
Scheer accuses Trudeau personally of malfeasance in the SNC-Lavalin affair.
Here, he runs the danger of going too far. Slagging Trudeau personally goes over well with the committed Conservative base. But an undecided Ontario Red Tory might find Scheer’s harsh language disturbingly reminiscent of the take-no-prisoners approach to politics associated with Harper.

Doug Ford has tried that message -- and it hasn't worked very well.

Here's the really big question: How will Elizabeth May do in a Red Tory province?

Image: The Toronto Star

6 comments:

Lulymay said...

Unfortunately, Owen, the "progressive" side of the Conservatives is long gone and has been replaced by the "reform" side. This not to say that old time voters whose great grandparents and every generation since still vote for the concept of the word "conservative", but what we have now is a group of fanatics whose evangelical beliefs dominate those who represent a diminishing moderate side of the party. These people want to rule over us, not govern on our collective behalf. They were happiest when old grey-haired white men ran the show. Yes, the current crop of leaders haven't reached the grey stage yet, but their minds still reside in the "good old days" when men and church ruled every aspect of our lives. No thanks!

Owen Gray said...

That's a very insightful comment, Lulymay. Canadian conservatives -- and others too -- have a hard time understanding how much the world has changed.

Anonymous said...

It's been a long time since I'd call Ontario a Red Tory province. John Tory was the last Red Tory PC leader, and he got trounced and bounced. Patrick Brown was a Harper Con with a light coat of red primer, and even that got him bounced.

The remaining Red Tories are concentrated in TO, and Scheer is unlikely to resonate with them. I suspect they'll continue to vote Lib.

As much as I'd like to see May pick up a few Ontario seats, I doubt it'll happen. A more likely scenario sees the Greens peeling off enough NDP votes to see NDP ridings like Toronto-Danforth, Trinity-Spadina and Parkdale-High Park stay Liberal.

Cap

Owen Gray said...

An interesting analysis, Cap. Ontario's Progressive Conservative Party is no longer Red Tory. It hasn't been since Mike Harris took over the reins. As for Ontarians, I think Walkom has a point. And that's why I wonder -- like you -- how Elizabeth May will do here in this election.

the salamander said...

.. I think paydirt is calling a dog.. a dog. Scheer is essentially a glib Reform faux evangelical - who gets a free ride via lazy Mainstream Media and the absolute luxury of almost unlimited media buy budget.. NDP and Green will do what they do.. sadly marginalized .. and Liberals will go after Scheer with pickaxes.. Hell, the guy was really was/is a 13th ballot musical chairs stopgap to stave off Bernier.. and now we know just what a loose cannon Maxime Bernier really is.. is Andrew Scheer any better ? I think not.. being annointed by Stephen Harper does not make one a 'leader'.. and we are seeing now just how hysterical Lisa Raitt really is.. on the edge of unhinged actually

What we really need to see is how The Green Party navigates the electoral quagmire.. I believe her day is somewhat over.. and Dr. Weaver in BC is the future

Owen Gray said...

Several salient points, sal. At this point, I'm making no predictions.