Michael Harris writes that the upcoming election could be a replay of the 2016 American election:
This election may boil down to which leading candidate most confirms voters’ worst impressions of him.
First, ponder a recent Angus Reid poll, reported in the Globe and Mail, that indicates Trudeau and Scheer should probably be considering a new line of work.
Fifty-two per cent of respondents don’t believe Andy is dandy. A whopping 63 per cent have an unfavourable impression of Justin the Sock Doll.
The Angus Reid Institute recently put the same information in a different way. Only one out of three respondents think Scheer would be the best PM. That should have the Conservatives biting their fingernails.
But the Liberals have zero reason to be smug. Even fewer, one in four, thought that Trudeau would be the best PM. It wasn’t that long ago that Trudeau could walk on water, with an approval rating in June 2016 of 65 per cent. Now he’s stumbling on terra firma.
Remember how 2016 worked out in the United States?
Donald Trump was the most unpopular presidential election winner in U.S. history. He won the White House in 2016 despite 61 per cent of Americans actively disliking him.
How did that happen? Hillary Clinton was also deeply unpopular. Though she got a few million more votes than Trump, she was vulnerable to defeat in the (dodgy) electoral college because she was so widely disliked.
Up until 2016, no losing presidential candidate had a higher unfavourable rating than 47 per cent, according to the Conversation. Clinton drove that number up to 52 per cent. Emails, leaked debate questions, cheating dear old Bernie Sanders — it all added up.
The take-away?
Trump’s victory was less of an endorsement of a glitzy conman than a contemptuous kick at what American democracy had become — Washington-centric and lobbyist-driven.
And, in the wake of that election, the United States is in chaos. Could we be headed down the same road?
Image: Burnaby Now
12 comments:
Trudeau, of course, is the author of his own misfortunes. His lofty rhetoric, unmatched by his actions, disappointed many. I just wonder if the youth vote will materialize this year, as it did in 2915. If it does, I suspect some of it might go to the Greens, given Trudeau's especially disappointing performance on the climate file.
I remember his father's second election, Lorne, when Pierre was given a minority government. I wonder if history will repeat itself.
Whatever happens in October it is going to be a real shitfight. People can talk about polls and percentages all they want. The one constant here are those, like myself who will no longer hold our noses and vote "strategically", if that truly exists, but will vote with our conscience in tact and vote Green. Despite the listed faux pas by Trudeau a number of lies ,electoral reform being the biggest, pipe lines and back peddling on the enviroment have captured those disgruntled voters who have had quite enough. Vote Green with a conscience
Polls, polls, and more polls, Owen. None of them really mean all that much unless you know exactly what questions were asked in order to understand the "why" of the responses.
I think the best way to gauge how voters are feeling is to list ALL of the leaders by name and alphabetically, then ask who I think would be the best person to serve as Prime Minister.
In to-day's climate, I would not be surprised if the majority of respondents would reply with NONE OF THE ABOVE! (except the Cons, of course, who still can't see beyond their need to govern our private lives as well as run government).
At this stage, heading to another federal election, my attitude is 'a pox on all their houses'!
I understand your anger, zoombats. But I remember the result of the last Ontario election. Ontarians were very angry the last time out. The result was Doug Ford. He has not made things better.
I suspect that a majority of Canadians feel that way, Lulymay. And who knows where that feeling will lead?
LulyMay hits it bang on .. a poll is just a poll.. essentially vote suppression 101 .. and a poll result without context, question, parameter is just excuse my English.. horseshite and lazy news - more vote suppression.. certainly not journalism, or effective communication.. just noyz and a further battering or pile on of an already fragile or whipped dead horse 'democracy' .. take a good look at what 'news' media reports the 'result'.. But then, how many will look deeper into a horseshite headline or TV quackery.. 1 % ?????
It has everything to do with depth, sal. These days, thinking beyond the pat phrase is pretty rare.
I've never been as fearful of an election as I am this year. My main concern is obviously climate change, the greatest threat Canada has ever faced, and yet we've had no leadership going back at least as far as Chretien. As the threat became more comprehensively understood we endured nearly a decade of Harper and, now, four lost years under Trudeau. We do not have the luxury of time. We don't have another four years to squander. Yet, Conservative or Liberal, we will waste the next four years and possibly many more.
On the environment, Scheer is Cap'n Sweet Fannie Adams but is Trudeau really much better? He bought the TMX pipeline after all. He wants to triple the volume of bitumen reaching 'tidewater.' He has no shame as he lies to our faces, telling us that we can have a booming petro-economy and fight climate change. He simply ladles out that horseshit as though it was fact. Yet the hook is that the two aren't advancing concurrently. Trudeau would have us first expand the bitumen trade. Then we pay off all the considerable costs associated with it. Then, if Canada doesn't first run out the clock and if there's anything left over and if there's a future government that adopts Trudeau's fanciful plan, then and only then will we confront the existential challenge. Don't eat that stuff, Charlie, that's horse shit.
There is a tradition in Canada of making grand bargains, Mound. Confederation was a grand bargain. Repatriating the constitution was a grand bargain. But, on climate cvhange, there's no grand bargain to be had. We are in deep trouble.
There was a time in Canadian Parliamentary history when the Prime Minister was basically a "chairman".
At that time any elected MP who was chosen as a "minister" had to apply to their constituency for permission (as in, a minister of whatever would have considerably less time to serve their constituents)
miniPET blew it when he chose to ignore his promises for electoral reform.
His caucus's ongoing double dealing with bitumen-rocks is just another nail in his coffin
The NDP have sucker-punched themselves into thinking they can gain "power" by supporting various money-for-nothing policies, instead of supporting real principles.
The Greens are the only party with an intelligent, nominally honest leader. But May has no chance of swaying the old boy power-net of canuck politics: consider who owns which "newspapers" and which "ISPs"
http://www.cmcrp.org
kh
Thanks for the link, kh. Something to think about. Powerful interests are deeply entrenched.
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