The House of Representatives has condemned Donald Trump. And, in one fell swoop, he has united the Democrats. But, Jonathan Freedland writes, Democrats should be wary of Trump -- because he does have a plan:
Put simply, he wants to choose his opponent for 2020. He doesn’t want the face of the Democrats to be Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris or Pete Buttigieg. He wants it to be a composite of AOC, Omar, Tlaib and Pressley. That’s partly because he reckons the squad’s politics are out of step with the US mainstream – that he can easily cast them as radical socialists with terrifying views. But mainly it’s about race (with a dash of misogyny for good measure).
Trump’s calculation is that he can repeat in 2020 what he did in 2016, winning an electoral college majority by winning in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania – and that he can edge a victory in those states by appealing to white voters stirred by racial resentment. Rather than trying to appeal to moderates and independents by boasting of, say, low unemployment and good economic numbers, he’d rather pull in yet more of the demographic that already favours him: white, often male, former Democratic voters without a college education. And he thinks he can do that by getting AOC’s or Omar’s face on the news every night.
It’s race-baiting, no doubt about it. But it might also be effective, as Trump’s 2016 campaign proved. The result is a dilemma for Democrats. Do they try to win back those white, low-income voters who supported Trump last time or do they use the president’s hateful behaviour, including his attacks on the squad, to drive up turnout among those appalled by it – especially black voters and young people?
Trump can drive you crazy -- because, in the end, he is crazy. But Democrats must not go off the deep end. They must think very carefully about their next steps. It's always good policy to beware of bigots.
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8 comments:
It's also misogynistic.
In 2016 a lot of Republicans held their noses and voted for Trump. His behaviour may cause so much nose pain , some of them stay home in 2020.
You're absolutely right, rumley. I'm betting that a majority -- perhaps a sizable majority -- of American women will vote for Trump's defeat.
An Iposos poll released this morning shows Independent US voter 65% opposed to Trump's racist remarks. He cant win with just Republican votes.
That's what so strange about this, rumley. He needed more than Republican votes to win the last time. He seems to have forgotten recent history.
The monkey wrench in the works is the Electoral College. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote but the EC gave the Presidency to Trump. He simply does not need the most votes. Trump must be defeated in the big states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as in the article. I think it will take a stampede to get rid of this guy.
I agree, Toby. If Trump is to be sent back to where he came from, the people who stayed home the last time will have to vote for the Democratic nominee.
Here is an interesting analysis: "Are Democrats too stupid to beat Donald Trump?"
https://www.alternet.org/2019/07/are-democrats-too-stupid-to-beat-donald-trump/
"So, yes, the Democrats really could blow this election by running a non-strategic campaign based on abstract values against a campaign that is laser-focused on just the voters it needs to win.
This isn’t an argument for changing values, but it is an argument for not being too stupid to beat a man like Donald Trump."
Something to think about, Toby. Trump is president because his opposition underestimated him the first time around. It's imperative they don't undrestimate him now.
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