He Doesn't Know What He's Talking About

Doug Ford continues to rail at the carbon tax. But the truth is that gas today is still cheaper than it was a year ago. Josh Rubin reports in The Toronto Star:

It is now more than three months since carbon pricing came into effect in Ontario — but prices are lower today than they were one year ago.

In fact, the sharp drop in gas prices has been widely cited as one of the key reasons that Canada’s national inflation rate has slowed, according to new figures from Statistics Canada.

According to a fuel price analyst with pump-watching firm GasBuddy.com, the average price of gas at Ontario pumps did indeed rise when the new carbon pricing came into effect. Prices rose from 114.3 cents per litre on March 31 to 117.9 cents on April 1, the first day of the new tax.

And since then, prices have continued to rise to 125.3 cents. However, that subsequent increase has nothing to do with the tax, according to Patrick DeHaan.

“New taxes generally have a one-day impact on change, so the increase since April 1 is more fundamental stuff. Supply and demand, really. So it looks like the impact of the carbon tax is three cents and a bit per litre,” said DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

However, despite the recent rise, gas prices in Ontario are still lower than they were one year ago.

On July 17, 2018, the average price at Ontario pumps was 130.1, DeHaan said. Since then, prices have dropped across the country.

The reason for the price drop is outside Ontario's borders:

DeHaan suggested one of the biggest factors in the national decline in the price of gasoline has nothing to do with carbon pricing. Instead, he thinks it’s likely due to the U.S. trade war with China. That trade war has slowed the growth of the Chinese economy, and caused a global slump in demand for oil.

The effect of the oil price slump has shown up at the pumps. Barring a sudden resolution, the relatively low prices won’t go away, DeHaan said. In fact, he expects the price of gasoline to drop back down to $1.20 a litre by the end of the summer.

When Ford came to office, he publicized his cell phone number, saying that if they had concerns, Ontarians could call him personally. Yesterday, he deactivated that number. It appears he didn't like the calls he was getting. Obviously, he has been getting a lot of calls with the same message: Whether it's the carbon tax -- or a myriad of other issues  -- Doug Ford doesn't know what he's talking about.

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