Chantal Hebert writes that Justin Trudeau will not be calling a snap election:
Provided the Liberal/NDP pact holds, Canada will not be going to the polls this fall and perhaps not until 2025. Even if Trudeau wanted to call a snap election to try to get an edge on a rookie leader, his own party is anything but on a solid electoral footing.
By rushing the country to the polls for the second time in as many years, the prime minister would only risk putting the Liberals on the fast lane to an exit from government.
But Trudeau says he'll be there for the next election:
When that happens, expect a no-holds-barred fight to the finish. Trudeau kicked off his tenure in power as a sunny ways politician, but the next election is promising to be anything but that.
The scorched-earth approach that led to Poilievre’s decisive leadership victory this weekend suggests as much.
His team kept its sharp elbows up long after it must have become evident that the prize was in the bag. A strategy designed to convince one’s supporters that their preferred outcome could still be up in the air almost always leads to rewards on the turnout front.
Poilievre did not just beat Jean Charest, he crushed him, including on the former premier’s Quebec turf.
It is not a coincidence that this upset was scored at a time when the dormant provincial Conservative party is undergoing an awakening under Poilievre’s libertarian pal Éric Duhaime. The federal Conservative brain trust may come to think that working with Duhaime could deliver more Quebec votes to the party than securing premier François Legault’s blessing.
Winning the next campaign will not be easy for Trudeau:
The next campaign will almost certainly be Trudeau’s last. History suggests it will be an uphill battle. Sir Wilfrid Laurier was the last incumbent prime minister to secure a fourth consecutive term.
But those long odds did not prevent Pierre Trudeau or Stephen Harper from trying to match Laurier’s record. And if Jean Chrétien had not been beset by internal challenges, he might have been tempted to stick around to take on the newly reunited Conservative party in 2004.
However, with Poilievre in the Conservative leader's chair, there is more than hubris behind Justin's decision:
In Trudeau’s case, it is likely not just that he thinks he can prevail in a battle against Poilievre but almost certainly that he believes he must.
It is not certain the prime minister would have felt as strongly about potentially leaving Canada in Charest’s hands as he clearly does in Poilievre’s case.
It's clear that the Conservatives want Poilievre as their leader. It's not at all clear that most Canadians want him as theirs.
Image: cultmtl.com
10 comments:
It's also not clear that most Canadians want another six years of Trudeau. Weak Lib support was enough to give us three terms of Harper, a man every bit as odious as Poilievre. If Trudeau wants a fourth term, he'd better start delivering on his promises.
Cap
Justin has just about outlived his welcome, Cap. As things stand today, I suspect he'd be given his walking papers. Not a good situation.
The present PM needs to resign now. Trudeau will lose and we do not need a Conservative government with Mr. PP at the helm. Anyong
Who will replace Trudeau, Anyong?
Dare we say Madam Freeland? We had a drama coach so methinks a journalist(?) might be in order of level of experience. Remember the grooming of Kim for the top job? Colour me cynical.
Who knows the best preparation for the job, zoombats? Kim was a lawyer -- a traditional career choice for a politician.
Naheed Nenshi, Anita Anand, Mark Carney could run for leader for the Liberal Party. Annyong
I wonder if they're interested, Anyong.
mark carney might be, but he might be too old by the time an election is called. Nenshi, that would be good. Trudeau could ask the party to hold a leadership convention, elect one of those mentioned and then leave them in office for a year to two before an election.
I don't know if Freeland would be elected P.M. although she is smart and would most likely do a good job. Read she was also being considered for a NATO position. It would be a shame to loose her to international affairs, but if it isn't a sure fire thing to being elected, we would be better off with her running NATO, where she would most likely do a very good job.
Charest would have been O.k. At leasst he is not hanging with terrorist like P.P. was with the convoy nutbars. Those people don't understand how a democaracy works. Wanting to remove a legally elected government and replace it with themselves and the G.G. ya, right, just what we needed. They didn't even know that would have been impossible due to our Constituion, etc.
Poilievre appeals to the ignorant, e.a.f. And, truth be told, he's also ignorant about a lot of things.
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