Chantal Hebert writes that a minority government looks more and more likely -- largely because of the resurgence of the Bloc Quebecois:
From a Quebec perspective, the argument that the Bloc is not a valid option because it will not have a seat at the government table is little more than a variation on the contention that a vote for the Greens or the New Democrats is — for the same reason — a wasted one.
The Conservatives went into the campaign looking to gain ground in Quebec. They may have to consider themselves lucky if they manage to keep the dozen seats Scheer inherited from Stephen Harper.
At this point, Quebec is more likely to split the bulk of its support between the Liberals and the BQ than to divide it four or five ways.
With Canada’s second-largest province potentially poised to take as many as half of its seats out of the battle for government, the victor on Oct. 21 stands to be determined by the outcome of scores of closely fought battles in the rest of the country.
And, in the rest of the country, Jagmeet Singh is a wild card:
That being said, it would be risky to overstate the NDP’s potential to split the so-called progressive vote in favour of the Conservatives.
In Ontario, for instance, a Léger poll done after Monday’s English-language debate showed NDP support hovering at or around its 2015 election mark.
So, at the moment, it's hard to see either the Liberals or the Conservatives gaining a majority of the seats.
Where does that leave the Greens? Stay tuned.