Susan Delacourt writes that a majority government for either the Liberals or the Conservatives could deepen fissures in this country:
Start with a Liberal majority win, which is far from the certainty it once seemed when Justin Trudeau was still basking in his 2015 victory. Remember when everyone was wondering when the Trudeau honeymoon would ever end?
It will be a huge relief for the Liberals if Trudeau does pull off a re-election majority. But after a polarizing campaign, much of which turned on Trudeau’s personal record, the celebration won’t be countrywide, to say the least.
Jason Kenney is leading the charge against Trudeau:
The re-election of Justin Trudeau would be absolutely devastating to my province,” Alberta Premier Jason Kenney warned last weekend during a tour through Ontario. “This is, for us, almost existential that we have a change in the federal government.”
Trudeau bought a pipeline. But it bought him nothing in Alberta. And should Andrew Scheer win a majority, it would set off loud protests on the left:
What if Scheer wins a majority, though? Again, the celebration would not be universal.
It would be a government with no natural allies in Parliament — not that it would need them to get legislation through. But with four leftish-leaning parties on the outside of government, the cacophony of outrage from the opposition — not to mention environmental and social activists, as well as many Indigenous communities — will make Monday’s night’s leaders’ debate sound like an easy-listening radio station.
Moreover, if Liberals are knocked back into opposition, could Trudeau survive? Would he even want the job of opposition leader? The party hasn’t been kind to its non-winners in the past couple of decades. In fact, John Turner is the last Liberal leader who was allowed to stay on after losing an election and that was in the 1980s. Every other losing Liberal leader since then — Paul Martin, Stéphane Dion, Michael Ignatieff — exited immediately after their defeat.
The only leader whose prospects seem to have improved is Jagmeet Singh:
At the moment, the New Democrats are looking like the only party that may escape turmoil after Oct. 21, mainly because of the kind of campaign that Leader Jagmeet Singh has run. Starting from low expectations, Singh has breathed some life into the party and enhanced his image with his debate performances.
And, if there is a minority government, it's still hard to predict which party would hold the balance of power. That's a political pickle.
Image: avclub.com
8 comments:
Don't forget that Harper ran two minority governments as though he had a majority. The other parties were broke and scared of going to the polls (apparently the voters don't like too much democracy). Harper rammed his nasty laws through in massive omnibus bills and dared his opponents to defeat his government. They bent over and took it. If the Cons get in with a minority, I have no doubt we'll see a repeat performance.
Cap
How could a Liberal government be any more an existential threat to Jason's province than the one that was led by Harper turned out to be? Maybe it's time for the CRAP Party to admit that whatever happens tomorrow will present an existential threat to the land of delusion that Alberta is still living in today. But of course, that might present an existential threat to the flimflam the party and its founding characters have been playing ever since the NEP. And where would guys like Jason be then? Heaven forbid, they might have to get a job.
So I guess not. Jason is my pal. He'll just find something else to say and pick someone or something else to blame.
My hunch is that, if the Conservatives win a minority, your scenario is likely to occur, Cap. They've changed the face of the leader. But it's still Harper's party.
At the heart of Jason's delusion, John, is the economics of energy. Oil -- particularly tar sands oil -- is on the way out. Kenny, and lots of other people, are living on another planet.
Social division is the name of the game today. A deeply divided public, hostile and suspicious of 'the other', drives us into separate corrals. In an electoral system so flawed that one third of the vote plus a few points is enough to deliver a majority government, division is an invaluable tool. Who cares if three out of five votes are essentially nullified?
As Cap points out, Harper turned a minority into a de facto majority but look what he was up against - first Dion, who knocked himself out of contention with his ill-conceived 'green shift' policy and then, from bad to worse, Ignatieff, the worst Liberal leader in my memory.
We praise Chretien for his majorities but he was pushing on an open door with Reform and the PCs eviscerating each other until MacKay threw in the towel. If Chretien had a viable opposition he would not have done nearly as well.
The facts speak for themselves and, unfortunately, the facts show that we no longer have a functioning democracy in Canada. Trudeau promised to set that right. Perhaps he wishes now that he had. We are in dire need of democratic restoration in this country but you won't find it in either the Liberal or Conservative platform.
I've written before, Mound, that I'll make no predictions about this election. But, if it leaves us darkly suspicious of each other, we will be ill prepared for the future.
.. I somehow missed this excellent post.. ! But what was lost is found.. Mark Twain ? Haha.. no
I see in my crystal ball.. the votes are splitting.. and the locked in die hard 'conservative' vote could remain steady.. Ulp.. a PM named Scheer ? The horror..
To me that means.. Kenney and Ford et al provided with the secret handshake to the PMO. Four bitter years for Canada and Canadians.
Worse it provides Stephen Harper and his factions.. access to the levers of power.. via a dull puppet named Scheer. Some say don't underestimate Scheer.. I say, don't overestimate Scheer. These people are insidious, permeated by shrill pro life faux evangelicals and equally shrill partisan losers short on morality or ethics.. The worst part though is Harper getting his huge ego back in Canada's governance. These people are not our friends, they are not nice, nor do they give a shite about the middle or lower class. They care about themselves, power and their shallow ideology.. (or is it odourology.. its so rancid..)
All I can add, sal, is that I agree wholeheatedly.
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