It's hard to make predictions about Canadian federal elections. Consider what happened in the last three elections. Chantal Hebert writes:
The last three federal elections all featured wild cards that changed the outcome of the game.
Few among Canada’s strategists and pundits saw the NDP’s 2011 orange wave in Quebec, Trudeau’s come-from-behind majority victory in 2015 or the Bloc Québécois’ resurgence in the last campaign in their pre-election cards.
And, going into the next election, there are several "known-unknowns:"
Two polls this week pegged NDP support about half a dozen points above its score in the last federal election.
While Quebec remains problematic, both Angus Reid and Léger found signs of vigorous NDP life in Ontario and B.C.
In Ontario, the Angus Reid poll found the NDP running neck and neck with Premier Doug Ford’s Tories.
In Manitoba, the New Democrats enjoy a small lead on Brian Pallister’s ruling Conservatives.
A party's provincial fortunes don't necessarily translate to the federal level. But, on the federal level, the Conservatives are having a hard time:
Nationally, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole’s current failure to launch could make it harder to use fear of the Conservatives as an incentive for soft NDP and Green sympathizers to move over to the Liberal side.
In Quebec, a weak Conservative showing is at least as likely to benefit the Bloc Québécois as to translate into Liberal gains.
So who knows what will happen? Anyone making predictions at this point is howling at the moon.
Image: Time And Date