Monday, June 14, 2021

Howling At The Moon

It's hard to make predictions about Canadian federal elections. Consider what happened in the last three elections. Chantal Hebert writes:

The last three federal elections all featured wild cards that changed the outcome of the game.

Few among Canada’s strategists and pundits saw the NDP’s 2011 orange wave in Quebec, Trudeau’s come-from-behind majority victory in 2015 or the Bloc Québécois’ resurgence in the last campaign in their pre-election cards.

And, going into the next election, there are several "known-unknowns:"

Two polls this week pegged NDP support about half a dozen points above its score in the last federal election.

While Quebec remains problematic, both Angus Reid and Léger found signs of vigorous NDP life in Ontario and B.C.

In Ontario, the Angus Reid poll found the NDP running neck and neck with Premier Doug Ford’s Tories.

In Manitoba, the New Democrats enjoy a small lead on Brian Pallister’s ruling Conservatives.

A party's provincial fortunes don't necessarily translate to the federal level. But, on the federal level, the Conservatives are having a hard time:

Nationally, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole’s current failure to launch could make it harder to use fear of the Conservatives as an incentive for soft NDP and Green sympathizers to move over to the Liberal side.

In Quebec, a weak Conservative showing is at least as likely to benefit the Bloc Québécois as to translate into Liberal gains.

So who knows what will happen? Anyone making predictions at this point is howling at the moon.

Image: Time And Date


Northern PoV said...

OK, I'll take the bait and start howling....

Jr. will win a narrow majority and secure four years of power for Freeland.

Dreams of an NDP majority aside, a Lib minority dependent on the NDP.
(It worked in 63-68 & 72-74.)

Ben Burd said...

I gave up listening to CH years ago, I did not find her to either entertaining or thoughtful. However she is regarded as the resident "Quebec Pundit". I wish for somebody else.

Owen Gray said...

Besides Hebert, Andre Pratte occasionally writes in English, Ben. He's worth reading.

The Disaffected Lib said...

More pertinent, to me, is what the campaign will be fought over. What will be the critical issue on which the parties will flog each other?

I don't think anybody is safe on climate change, especially the party that's been in power for the last six years. O'Toole's intemperate Morlocks don't want to hear promises to slash emissions and, gasp, introduce carbon pricing. Trudeau's bitumen-stained rhetoric doesn't invite close scrutiny either. Jagmeet - well, he's irrelevant except to the true believers.

It'll come down to who sets the narrative and I don't think O'Toole has the traction to dominate. That would seem to leave the initiative to Trudeau and more of his no-longer inspiring promises.

Ben Burd said...

I really do not think that Jagmeet will win any votes in Quebec, might in Brampton and BC. Politics is more tribal than we would like to believe.

Owen Gray said...

Your prediction may not be far off, PoV.

Owen Gray said...

My hunch is that COVID will play a role in the next election, Mound. But I'm really not sure how it will all shake out.

Bob said...

As things look today I expect the next election to be dominated by politically correct issues, essentially easily forgotten fluff. Anything really important will be avoided.

Owen Gray said...

Politics is particularly tribal in Quebec, Ben. But the tribes can change -- quickly.

Owen Gray said...

It's hard to say how much will be substantive and how much will be fluff, Bob -- until we get there.

John B. said...

I wonder what costume he has in mind. Justin's Covid coiffure is making him look a bit like Riel. Get rid of the facial stuff and he could go as former father John A.

Too-easy guys are to our worst when it gets too-easier. Please, don't give this one another majority.


Jagmeet, we hardly knew ye. Up until last week, our best was a guess; but now we do. Not soon enough.

Owen Gray said...

Thanks for the link, John. I haven't heard that song in decades.