Tuesday, September 21, 2021

The Election -- Some Observations

There are still lots of mail-in ballots to be counted. But, as of this morning, we are almost exactly where we were when this all started. The Liberals gained three seats, the Dippers gained two, and the Conservatives kept the number of seats they won after the last election.

I offer the following observations:

1. I expected the number of Green votes to fall. I did not expect them to virtually disappear. I make no predictions about the party's future. But, at the moment, it looks dark.

2. I thought the People's Party was a flash in the pan. I was wrong -- although  Maxime Bernier appears to be more popular in Saskatchewan than he is in The Beauce.

3. The Bloc Quebecois makes dealing with Quebec -- which is always an issue -- more difficult. I attribute the party's resurgence to Justin's handling of the SNC Lavlin Affair -- and Stephen Harper's majority victory without Quebec support.

4. The divide between urban and rural Canadians continues to grow. In that way, we mirror what is happening in the United States.

5. The marriage of convenience between the Liberals and The Dippers may produce some very significant legislation -- legislation which we will need whenever this pandemic subsides.

Image: The National Post

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

There is not much of a change. It is a continuation of the same old same old. Perhaps the NDP can keep Trudeau a little more honest. I am in agreement…..we are divided as a country. There is far too much admiration of the US which is built upon money and individualism and not enough about the collective. A relative 48 lives for anything US. Anyong

Anonymous said...

Although the mail in count could alter the final seat count, the results are close to where we started. Greens need to burn it all down and start from scratch, they continue to be May's party and she desperately needs to bow out for any hope of a refresh. Paul impressed me at the debates and she does have real potential but needs to be realistic and build the party from scratch and get rid of the agitators that screwed her election chances. At least we know Bernier's attempt to ride pandemic hostility did not result in any seats, and won't, that anger is not going away and will continue to pick up followers. If not the never ending pandemic, he will cook up some other uber grievance issue. Silver lining- it will help keep the CONs out of government for the foreseeable future, coupled with their inability to pick a leader who is capable of expanding the base. My ultimate wish would be for Justin to step aside (he should go for this blunder election call) and we find the new leader- my spidey sense tells me Mark Carney is chomping at the bit, but, as I posted a couple days ago, we are LONG overdue for a female PM and that may turn out to be Ms Freeland. BC Waterboy

Owen Gray said...

The NDP will be putting pressure on Justin, Anyong -- and that will be a good thing.

Owen Gray said...

My hunch is that this was Justin's last election, waterboy. But I don't expect him to go anywhere -- probably for the next three years.

Lorne said...

My hope is that Singh sticks to his guns and forces some much-needed taxation changes, Owen. Left to his own devices, Trudeau will always side with the wealthy, i.e., his own kind.

Northern PoV said...

Welcome to deja-vu all over again.
Or is it Groundhog Day? If it is Groundhog Day, I hope that Justin is not the Bill Murray character, we need to be the learning protagonist who eventually escapes (and gets the girl).

I agree with you Owen, most of the time, but think you are wrong about Justin's handling of the SNC Lavlin Affair being a problem in La Belle province. Quite the opposite. Actually, biz as usual to protect Quebec biz at all costs.

CBC says that Mad Max may have cost the CONs 24 seats, was your one of them, this time?
And St. Max did this w/o winning a single seat. Schadenfreude abounds.

I did note that they called the election before the votes were counted in BC.

Anonymous said...

I didn't think much of the Covid precautions at my local polling station. They lined us up inside a narrow hallway, when there was ample room and nice weather outside. The woman at the contact tracing desk was double-masked, but the mask was under her nose. The voting room was small and had sliding doors leading outside on opposite sides of the room. Ventilation could have been great, but the doors were shut. So much for Elections Canada's enhanced Covid precautions - it was more like a PPC convention. I should have ordered a mail-in ballot.

Cap

Owen Gray said...

It'll be Singh's job to keep Justin in the channel, Lorne.

Owen Gray said...

The Conservative majority over the Liberal candidate was 3,000 votes, PoV. The PPC votes would have added another three thousand to that total. On SNC, Quebecers were not happy with Trudeau because they thought Jodie Wilson Raybould was the problem. She refused to follow his wishes.

Owen Gray said...

I'm betting that the requests for mail-in ballots will continue to rise, Cap.

Northern PoV said...

WOW. A 6000 vote margin for dumb and dumber.
You live where there are a lot of angry blue and purple people, Owen. Take care.

Owen Gray said...

The poet Al Purdy came from this part of the country, PoV. He wrote a poem about the folks here -- the first line of which reads, "Conservative since the Stone Age."

e.a.f. said...

that was an interesting evening. Our historically NDP riding went Green in a bi election a few years ago but the Conservatives came in second. It did seem strange but with the number of Albertans moving into Nanaimo it wasn't suprizing. When I turned off the t.v. last evening the NDP and Cons were a few votes apart, with the NDP leading. Greens were in third place. While the Greens were tearing up their leader, our Green M.P. was dead silent. Not a good look.

The $600M spent, well it confirmed out decisions from last time, so Trudeau has his answer.

Would the Cons have done better without the PPC? Perhaps, but I suspect a lot of people are just unhappy with their parties and therefore take their vote to the PPC. Will Bernier continue with his party? Expect so, what else is he going to do for a living. He may also be taking the long view. Look how long it took the CCF and Green party to obtain a seat.

I'm O.K. with the results. Yes it would have been nice to have Singh as P.M. but as long as that is not going to happen, I'm O.K. with Trudeau in a minority position. He did a decent job of dealing with COVID and kept families and a lot of small businesses afloat. Don't think the Cons would have been as financially supportive of families during the COVID as the Liberals were. Canada has done just fine with Liberal minority governments, so here we go again. Trudeau will want to pass something which has his stamp on it, so do expect something to pass Parliament which the NDP will support.

Owen Gray said...

I suspect that, like past Liberal governments, Trudeau will adopt several NDP initiatives, e.a.f.

Northern PoV said...

"While the Greens were tearing up their leader, our Green M.P. was dead silent. Not a good look."

e.a.f. What are you thinking?
Paul Manly got attacked, in public, by the Green leader's right hand man. She has yet to repudiate that attack. Greens are weird. (Note Andrew Weavers' latest antics.)

Poor Lizzie May hanging out at the roadside in her walker: running again was the only way to guarantee at least one seat for the Greens.

Owen Gray said...

I'll let e.a.f respond, PoV.

Toby said...

The Greens will not form a government in my lifetime. So, what to do? The Greens could be a formidable critic of the reigning government's environmental policy. Ms. Paul wasted everyone's attention on social identity issues and put the environment on the back burner. The house is burning down and she talks about redecorating.

Owen Gray said...

She won't be around for much longer, Toby.

Trailblazer said...

I voted for Manly tho he has been invisible thought the year.
I just could not spoil my vote.
That the future of the Green party lies with an ageing woman with a walker is not just a statement on the Greens but on Canadian politics that cannot think out of the box.
At the end of the day/election we have not succumbed to the tribalism of USA politics but it was a close call.
Too many wannabee politicians seeing future possibilities succumb to the misused adage of trying to punch above their weight and their inexperience or naivety leads to squandered chances of doing good deeds.

TB



Owen Gray said...

Most politicians suffer from a virulent disease, TB -- an overdeveloped ego.

e.a.f. said...

Northern P.O.V. DIDNT read or hear about Paul's people taking a wack out of Manly. If they did, I'm O.K. with it. Never saw him as some one I'd vote for. He got bounced

by the NDP and then went to the greens,. In my opinion he is a political opportunist. They all are, but he seems more into it than others.

The Green Party has a few lines in their platform which simply are not acceptable to me and their dislike for their leader, well some of them, may be a case of she's black and Jewish. the party treated her like dirt when she had been voted into office by a majority or she wouldn't be in the job. If her "right hand person" attacked Manly perhaps there was good reason to do so, given the attack she was under and he never did speak out about it but then I didn't read that May defended her either.

do agree May needs to retire. Perhaps the future of the greens will be with the new M.P. in Ontario. If the Greens are ever to gain support or drain it away from other parties, they need a few more mainstream positions in their platform. People are concerned about climate but they are also concerned with things like health care, feeding their kids, etc. When people are trying to get by day by day, they don't think that much about the future. Its easy to be Green if you have money and you can have choices about what you buy and where. Its real nice to want to reduce green houses gases but a lot of that depends upon people driving less or having an electric car. Many people drive older cars because they can't afford an electric one. They need to drive to get to work because they need to work and in the lower mainland, it too expensive to live in a lot of areas where you work. Its easy to drive an electric car if you can afford it and if you have the luxury of working close to home, but what will the Greens propose to make that happen for tens of thousands of Canadians.

The Greens could start by being a "nicer, gentler" party and caring a tad more about people.

Northern PoV said...

I don't know if eaf will be back and there is way too much to 'unpack' here so I'll just leave this ...

https://thetyee.ca/News/2021/07/20/The-Man-Who-Upended-Canadas-Green-Party/

Owen Gray said...

e.a.f. has responded to you, PoV. Her comment is just above yours.

Northern PoV said...

I know.
I am responding to that response! ;-)

(hence 'don't know if they'll be back)

happy trails .....